Quantitative research is an iterative loop: a researcher proposes a market hypothesis, implements it as an executable signal, tests it on historical data, and decides what to keep. Existing benchmarks score formulas, code, or individual trading decisions, leaving open whether large language models (LLMs) can complete this loop and produce strategies that work beyond the research period. We introduce Quant-Arena, a benchmark and public leaderboard for end-to-end quantitative research on real A-share market data. A model constructs features and stock-scoring code, receives feedback only on 2022--2023, and freezes one strategy for assessment on the sealed year 2024. A cash-account evaluator applies trading constraints and costs, including market impact estimated from a simulated order book. Scores are dominated by realized excess return and complemented by signal quality and the diversity of features used by the strategy. We evaluate nine frontier models, among which GPT-6 Astra scores highest; yet no model beats the equal-weight market in 2024. Quant-Arena is open to submissions from any model or agent harness.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30113
Increasing the attention context length significantly improves streaming video generation quality, while incurring prohibitive memory and computational costs as the context grows. Existing methods attempt to capture this contextual information through attention selection or compression, but remain limited by bounded representations and lack explicit attention-level supervision to retain historical contributions to current queries. To address this, we introduce Attn-Forcing, a novel framework that preserves full-context attention contributions for streaming video generation under bounded memory and computation. We achieve this by introducing attention proxies that continuously approximate the attention responses induced by the historical context. Specifically, we implement the proxies as learnable visual latents and employ a Proxy Update Module to incorporate visual context from historical latents. Moreover, we propose an Attention Matching Loss to explicitly constrain the attention behavior of the learned proxies using full-context attention supervision. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that Attn-Forcing consistently improves streaming video generation quality and achieves state-of-the-art performance over existing baseline methods.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30036
The Gaussian Mumford-Shah model segments an image into regions by minimizing a continuous multivariate Gaussian negative log-likelihood term plus a perimeter penalty. It is used for scalar- and vector-valued images, in particular hyperspectral images, but the existence of a minimizer in general is not guaranteed. The energy is unbounded below whenever the covariance of a single region degenerates, regardless of the perimeter of the regions. A quantitative covariance floor on the covariances of all regions, or equivalently uniform Hölder continuity with exponent at most one of all one-dimensional marginals of the histogram, guarantees a lower bound on the energy and the existence of a minimizer. Our approach therefore shows that existence follows from a property of the histogram of the image, and we furthermore argue that scale-independent covariance floors cannot exist. Admitting a quantitative covariance floor is generic: it holds almost surely for all images with suitable noise. As applications of our theory, we show the convergence of regularized models used in practice and of numerical methods.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29949
Quantitative analysis of environmental phenomena increasingly relies on image-based measurements. In volcanology, the geometric characterization of volcanic plumes and clouds from RGB images remains hindered by the scarcity of dedicated segmentation solutions and partially handcrafted annotations remain widely prevalent. We present GuidedSAM-Plume, an open-source expert-guided framework tailored for the interactive segmentation of volcanic plumes and clouds. It leverages the zero-shot, spatial prompt-based capabilities of SAM2. The framework was thoroughly validated on a challenging dataset through dedicated segmentation metrics and field-relevant volcanological descriptors. From minimal user inputs, it is able to significantly increase performance compared to fully automatic dedicated solutions while preserving the reliability of derived volcanological parameters. The absence of retraining requirements lowers adoption barriers within the volcanological community, and the framework's demonstrated suitability for complex, diffuse plume-shaped phenomena extends its applicability to broader environmental science domains. The re-annotated dataset, produced under the guidance of expert volcanologists within the proposed framework, ultimately yields a more standardized release. The framework and accompanying dataset are made available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29825
Thyroid ultrasound supports the assessment of nodule malignancy, but classification predictions often lack evidence linked to familiar clinical descriptions. Radiomics provides explicitly defined measurements that can support such explanations through a clinical dictionary. However, using these measurements as interpretable evidence requires reliable estimation from ultrasound images and preservation of measurement fidelity when optimizing classification performance. We propose a clinical-dictionary radiomic bottleneck model for thyroid nodule classification. Within this model, Family-Aware Radiomic Learning (FARL) estimates measurements with balanced supervision across feature families. Fidelity-Guided Bottleneck Modeling (FGBM) constructs a fixed bottleneck, followed by joint optimization of measurement estimation and classification under fidelity guidance. Decision evidence decomposition then traces feature contributions through a linear classifier and organizes them by clinical dictionary categories. Experiments on ThyroidXL and TN3K show competitive classification performance, while case studies illustrate feature contributions for benign and malignant nodules. These findings indicate interpretable classification with inspectable quantitative evidence informed by clinical knowledge. Code is available online.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29738
During steady pouring, images and robot pose may remain nearly unchanged while transferred mass accumulates, making the return decision ambiguous for a whole-task vision-language-action (VLA) policy. We present FlowVLA, which separates motor generation from physical-completion estimation. A shared $\pi_{0.5}$ action expert learns approach, pour, and return with boundary-aware supervision. A target-independent estimator fuses visual, joint, wrist-wrench, and recurrent force-belief histories to maintain an estimate of transferred mass. The controller initiates return when this estimate plus predicted residual outflow reaches the requested mass. In coffee-pot/water experiments, FlowVLA achieves 13.1 g goal-balanced mean absolute error (MacroMAE), lower than all tested VLA baselines. Across all attempts, 53.7% both complete the task and finish within +/-10% of the requested mass. The same model interpolates to held-out 150/250-g targets without retraining. Independently trained models further evaluate the formulation in three additional container-fluid settings.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29692
Early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma is critical to preserve access to curative treatment options. The Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) provides a standardized framework for non-invasive diagnosis on multiphase computed tomography, based on major visual imaging features. However, these features may be difficult to assess consistently, particularly in small liver lesions. We developed dLI-RADS, an interpretable artificial intelligence method designed to estimate the probability of hepatocellular carcinoma from multiphase computed tomography images of manually segmented liver lesions, while remaining aligned with LI-RADS-related imaging concepts. dLI-RADS combines neural network-derived predictions with handcrafted quantitative imaging measurements reflecting LI-RADS major features and integrates these inputs using logistic regression. In this multicenter retrospective study, patients with multiphase computed tomography and at least one liver lesion were included, while lesions larger than 40 mm were excluded. Histology served as the reference standard for hepatocellular carcinoma, and a composite reference standard was used for non-hepatocellular carcinoma lesions. The lesion-level accuracy of dLI-RADS and LI-RADS were compared on the internal evaluation set using 10,000-repetition bootstrap non-inferiority tests, with 5% margins and significance levels. On the external test set, sensitivities were similarly compared. dLI-RADS was non-inferior to LI-RADS for lesion-level accuracy in the internal evaluation set, achieving 80% accuracy compared with 74% for LI-RADS (p = 0.04)...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29616
Temporal reasoning is widely assumed to decompose into two modes: temporal arithmetic (date and time calculations), and temporal semantics (understanding temporal and causal relations). This dichotomy shapes how benchmarks are designed, how models are trained, and how progress is measured, yet its empirical validity has never been directly tested. We provide two lines of evidence that challenge it. First, we test whether tasks labelled as arithmetic or semantic by the benchmarks support transferable gains within their purported mode. Finetuning on these subsets yields predominantly dataset-specific gains ($+6.8$ to $+23.1$ percentage points), while transfer to a different dataset in the same mode ranges from $-3.2$ to $+1.1$ percentage points. Across the two benchmark families used in the transfer analysis, this pattern provides little evidence of coherent, transferable temporal abilities. Second, using cognitive-demand-based model evaluation, we examine which capabilities actually drive performance on these benchmarks. We find that quantitative and logical reasoning, the assumed proxies for temporal arithmetic and temporal semantics, are not the primary drivers; knowledge is. Together, these findings show that current temporal reasoning benchmarks do not cleanly realise the arithmetic-semantics distinction and instead largely reward models for remembering how time typically works.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29507
Deep learning based models accurately delineate tumours on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), but segmentation masks alone do not provide the rationales or reasoning used by radiologists to assess the lesion suspicion. This limits the explainability as well the clinical integration. We investigate whether clinically relevant descriptors can instead be derived from the segmentation masks and their dynamic contrast-enhancement series. We have used Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) guidelines as a structured framework. Using these guidelines we designed a BI-RADS decision tree with eight quantitative measurements using radiomics, together with the lesion size and component count, that determine the descriptors at eight nodes. Using these descriptors we generate natural-language rationale using a large language model. The model was constrained to express only the derived records from the decision tree. After applying this framework to the expert and automatic masks of each of the 1,506 cases in the MAMA-MIA dataset, we generated a reproducible corpus of 3,012 BI-RADS grounded rationales. We obtained a faithfulness score of 99.98% and a counterfactual accuracy of 99.3%, indicating that the generated rationales faithfully verbalises the measured descriptors and correctly reflects changes in the underlying record. Agreement between the descriptors from expert and automatic masks falls from 0.832 to 0.549 as mask quality falls from Good to Missed. The generated rationales are intended as draft representations for radiologist review and final sign-off rather than autonomous clinical reports.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29358
Long-context continual pre-training (LCCP) is widely used to improve long-context capability, but how its benefits scale with the number of tokens used for LCCP remains unclear. We investigate this question through modeling, monitoring, and validating the benefits of scaling LCCP. First, we establish an empirical additive power law relating long-context performance to model size and the respective token budgets of short-context pre-training and LCCP. Experiments across five model scales and more than one hundred short- and long-context budget configurations show that the fitted law reproduces the observed trends and extrapolates well to held-out model scales. Second, we introduce \textsc{Constant-Last4}, a training and observation protocol that averages the four most recent consecutive checkpoints from a constant-learning-rate run to enable stable monitoring along a single extensible training trajectory. Under this protocol, the same scaling-law form fits well and accurately predicts the LCCP performance trajectory of a 1.22B-parameter model trained on approximately 100B LCCP tokens. Finally, downstream evaluations along this trajectory show continued improvements in long-context performance, with no clear sign of saturation within the evaluated range. These gains persist after both 128K context extension and supervised fine-tuning, with benefits extending to long-context understanding and agentic tasks. Together, these results argue for continuing to scale LCCP rather than stopping early: its gains are stably observable along an extensible trajectory, quantitatively predictable, and transferable to downstream tasks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29352
How well can transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) retain and recall memories in long contexts of dialogue? LLMs are known to forget long-range factual information in their context, yet the field lacks a comprehensive benchmark to quantitatively assess these shortcomings. We present DiaLong, a long-context dialogue dataset and accompanying memory task that standardizes evaluation in this space. It consists of 100 unique conversations created by humans and then augmented with LLMs, extending beyond lengths found in existing datasets. Our selected memory task is fact recall: classify 40 candidate facts about a dialogue as true or false. This task directly probes the model's ability to actively retain and retrieve information, serving as a critical measure of memory within extended conversational contexts. In testing both the latest LLMs and proposed memory enhancements on DiaLong, we demonstrate that more work needs to be done to enable LLMs with better memory performance. By enhancing memory capabilities, LLMs can improve in maintaining coherence, relevance, and human-like interaction over extended conversation. Improving these capabilities will help LLMs fulfill diverse user needs and expectations in various conversational scenarios.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.25463
This study proposes a sketch-to-simulation system to solve handwritten circuit diagrams. The system converts raw images into a Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis (SPICE)-compatible netlist and automatically calculates the circuit's nodal voltages and currents. Another objective is to propose a holistic framework that benefits students and educators by enhancing the teaching and learning experience of electric circuits and expediting engineering design reviews. This article presents a multistage pipeline that converts raw photographs of handwritten electric circuits into executable SPICE-like netlists, providing a solution. A dataset of 1,000 hand-drawn Resistor-Inductor-Capacitor (RLC) circuits was curated and annotated for components, text regions, and character recognition. The proposed system decomposes a circuit diagram into three stages: (i) dual You Only Look Once (YOLO)-based detectors for components and text regions, (ii) a Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (CRNN) with Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based domain-aware symbol value extraction, and (iii) image processing with thresholding, skeletonization, and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) to automatically identify nodes and map them with corresponding components. The proposed system produces the netlist and solves the circuit. The qualitative and quantitative ablation studies on modular stages, as well as end-to-end tests, demonstrate robust performance across various handwriting styles, lighting conditions, and this http URL study serves as an interactive learning aid and practical tool for professionals, providing a comprehensive user interface (UI), enabling rapid digitization of circuit sketches for study, design, prototyping, or troubleshooting.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28836
Picture-description dementia classification uses a shared visual scene, but a transcript-level prediction alone does not identify the scene evidence underlying its inputs. NarraSpace links words and speech times to named picture elements and retrieves utterances for predefined scene events. Narrative-spatial descriptors summarize coverage and temporal organization. A frozen language model contrasts each event's text under examples from Alzheimer's disease and healthy-control training participants, alongside transcript surprisal and coverage measurements. Retained source records link event scores to their source utterances, speech intervals, and lexical matches. On the official 48-participant test set of the Alzheimer's Dementia Recognition through Spontaneous Speech benchmark, a fixed support vector classifier achieves $80.88\%\pm2.56\%$ mean accuracy over fifty seeds; averaged probabilities yield $81.25\%$ accuracy and $91.32\%$ area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. NarraSpace makes the construction of scene-linked classification inputs explicit and inspectable by connecting event-indexed language-model measurements to their source utterances, speech timing, and extraction records. Such source-linked measurements could support clinician review of picture descriptions by presenting quantitative summaries alongside the original speech evidence.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28616
Modern distributed microservice deployments generate massive volumes of heterogeneous, multi-format observability logs across physically and logically partitioned infrastructure. Isolating root causes during cascading failures remains an arduous task for Site Reliability Engineers (SREs), bottlenecked by manual keyword filtering and disjointed temporal correlation across monitoring dashboards. We introduce Semantic Observability, an autonomous multi-agent framework that unifies disparate log streams into a dynamic, queryable Property Graph Database. By modeling physical infrastructure topologies, logical software dependencies, and chronological event sequences as attributed nodes and directed relations, it bridges the semantic gap inherent in flat, unstructured log repositories. Building on this unified substrate, we deploy a stateful multi-agent system orchestrated through Directed Cyclic Graphs (DCGs). The system autonomously navigates the topology, applying causal graph algorithms and temporal back-traversal to isolate the precise blast radius of anomalies. The pruned subgraph is then interpreted by a Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning engine to generate contextualized, code-level Root Cause Analyses (RCA) and actionable remediations. This paper establishes the foundational system architecture, formal relational ontology, and multi-agent control loops of Semantic Observability. We show conceptually how the framework eliminates ambient telemetry noise, reduces Mean Time to Resolution (MTTR), compresses LLM token consumption, and prevents structural hallucinations. We also specify an open-source validation framework on standard benchmarks (LogHub and Train-Ticket), laying the groundwork for a forthcoming companion paper on exhaustive quantitative evaluation and production benchmarking.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28611
The increasing complexity of Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and their integration with IT infrastructures has significantly expanded the cyber threat landscape. Traditional cybersecurity models, primarily based on the Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability (CIA triad), fail to capture the broader societal and operational impacts of cyberattacks. This paper proposes a novel framework that integrates Digital Twin technology with a Cyber-Social Security model to simulate, analyze, and quantify cyber threats in critical infrastructures. Virtualized ICS environments built with Mininet and MiniCPS are used to model attack scenarios and assess their consequences across technical and social dimensions. At the core of the framework lies the Cyber-Social Vulnerability Scoring System (CSVSS), a quantitative metric that extends CVSS with a Social Impact dimension grounded in the Entity and Place pillars, producing a single, reproducible severity score that reflects real-world consequences. Crucially, the framework does not automate risk assessment but keeps the human analyst at its center: a Large Language Model (LLM) performs a first-pass analysis, mapping vulnerabilities and drafting risk reports, while the analyst, supported by explainable AI feedback, validates the findings and retains decision authority over critical cases. Experimental results demonstrate the framework's ability to model and score cyber-social impact, while the human-in-the-loop design is presented as a conceptual principle to preserve oversight.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28430
Hyperspectral Image (HSI) reconstruction has made substantial progress with the deep unfolding framework by decomposing the problem into a projection module and a denoiser module. Nevertheless, existing methods still exhibit limitations of insufficient matching with HSI data. The issues lie in two aspects: 1) the data-consistency projection module applies a fixed gradient descent step while ignoring the spectral content adaptivity of HSI; 2) the denoiser module either suffers from high computational complexity or is limited to the local receptive field, failing to efficiently capture the global spatial-spectral dependencies. In this paper, we propose a deep unfolding framework centered on a two-stage manifold learning strategy to obtain a degradation-free structural prior, which is then strategically injected into both the projection and denoiser modules. In the data-consistency projection, a prior-guided spectral weight mechanism is introduced to adaptively modulate the weight of spectral band. In the denoiser module, a manifold-guided Mamba is proposed to achieve the structure-aware extraction of spatial-spectral features through prior modulation. Quantitative and visual comparisons on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches, while maintaining the structural interpretability of the unfolding framework. The code is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27874
Human skin contains diverse mechanoreceptors, including Merkel cells and Pacinian corpuscles, each localized in specific regions. Although their spatial organization is known to be shaped by molecular signaling and neural induction during development, experimentally examining its functional significance under controlled conditions in living systems remains challenging. In particular, physically comparing alternative receptor arrangements that do not occur biologically is difficult. In this study, we developed a layered biomimetic robotic skin designed to mimic key structural features of human skin tissue by embedding receptor-analog sensors within compliant soft media. Using this platform, we implemented both biologically motivated and counterfactual sensory arrangements and quantitatively evaluated their performance across three passive tactile tasks: detection of weak contacts, a two-point discrimination-like assessment, and texture identification. Arrangements reflecting key features of the biologically motivated sensory organization exhibited higher performance than the alternative configurations examined. This study addresses a biological question concerning how spatial organization influences tactile function by presenting a biomimetic robotic approach that enables physical and empirical comparison of biologically motivated and counterfactual sensory arrangements that are difficult to investigate in living systems.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.26680
Bipedal humanoids can change their effective footprint by adjusting body yaw, enabling both narrow-passage traversal and socially aware yielding. This paper presents a posture-aware navigation framework centered on \emph{Adaptive Traversal Tubes} (ATT), \emph{Interval Velocity--Heading} (IVH) control, and a sidestep-enhanced AMP locomotion prior. ATT represents a behavior-feasible corridor width field along a reference path, unifying geometric clearance and social comfort into a continuous signal. IVH maps this width to a continuous frontal-to-sidestep posture schedule and omnidirectional velocity commands. A velocity-conditioned AMP policy, trained with GVHMR-retargeted frontal/sidestep motions and coupled \((v_x,v_y)\) tracking rewards, is designed to improve transition stability over a generic locomotion controller while remaining interchangeable with the default onboard policy. This preprint presents the full method; a planned evaluation protocol on a Unitree G1 is outlined, with quantitative results to follow. Demo videos of MuJoCo simulation and real-robot deployment are available at: this http URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27688
Spatial intelligence requires agents to actively acquire visual evidence and integrate observations into a coherent representation of the three-dimensional world. Yet spatial question answering offers limited evidence of whether models can construct accurate metric maps through autonomous exploration. We introduce SpatialScout, a benchmark for evaluating vision-language model (VLM) agents on active object-level 3D mapping. SpatialScout comprises 80 diverse indoor scenes containing 3,140 target objects. Given an object inventory, RGB observations, camera calibration, and camera poses, agents control a camera to explore each scene and estimate object centers in a shared coordinate frame. The task requires coordinating viewpoint selection, cross-view association, geometric estimation, and map revision under bounded interaction budgets. Evaluation jointly measures localization accuracy and target coverage through object-scale overlap scores that penalize missing predictions. Experiments with frontier VLMs reveal substantial limitations: the strongest evaluated model, Claude Opus 5.5, achieves a mean overlap score of 41.71%, with 47.23% of targets exceeding an intersection-over-union (IoU) threshold of 0.5 and only 3.25% exceeding 0.9. These results reveal a substantial gap between recovering coarse object layouts and constructing complete, precise metric maps. SpatialScout provides a quantitative testbed for developing agents that build reliable 3D spatial representations through active perception. Code is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.26659
We present a study on controlled automatic simplification of Russian texts using preference-based optimization algorithms with a focus on adapting texts to the A1, A2 and B1 proficiency levels. We fine-tune YandexGPT using Rejection Sampling and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) methods to improve control over the complexity of the generated text. We compare several training configurations that differ in dataset composition, text type and the strategy used to construct preference pairs for DPO. For automatic evaluation we train a regression model based on ruRoBERTa-large to predict continuous complexity scores corresponding to CEFR levels. We also consider semantic similarity, lexical coverage and quantitative readability metrics. Human evaluation assesses simplicity, fluency and adequacy. Our best model achieves 87.15\% target level accuracy, an MAE of 0.35 CEFR levels and a target interval MAE of 0.11. Manual assessment shows that 75% of the evaluated simplifications match the target morphological and syntactic level, and fluency and adequacy scores are especially high for A2 and B1. Although A1 remains the most challenging level, the model significantly reduces the proportion of vocabulary and grammatical constructions beyond the target level while generally preserving meaning. Our model is freely available on $\href{this https URL}{HuggingFace}$.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27237