Mid-training (MT) is a training phase in LLM training pipelines that continues pretraining (PT) on smaller datasets of higher value. Taking the PT and MT phases as a whole, training usually starts with only PT data and then transitions completely to MT data. In this work, we view this complete transition from PT to MT data as a special case of a broader class of data mixing schedules that specify how the proportions of PT and MT tokens in each batch change over training. Under fixed total training compute and MT token budgets, we ask: Is this complete transition to MT data optimal for minimizing final MT loss? We show that the answer depends on the learning rate (LR) schedule: one data schedule may outperform another under one LR schedule, but changing only the LR schedule can reverse the outcome. Specifically, when the LR decays throughout continued training, introducing MT data earlier and mixing it with PT data lowers the final MT loss compared with placing all MT data at the end of training, but this result is reversed if we use constant LR. We therefore study how to jointly choose when to introduce MT data and when to decay the LR through ablation studies, and find that it is better to decay the LR only after MT data enters training. Finally, we develop a theoretical model that explains why the optimal data schedule for a fixed MT token budget depends on the LR schedule.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29348
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied across the scientific discovery pipeline, from synthesizing literature to generating hypotheses to informing experimental design. A unifying principle behind these tasks is the need to continuously update beliefs as evidence accumulates, for which Bayesian inference provides a natural framework. However, existing work assumes that LLMs cannot carry out principled Bayesian belief updating in context, instead relying on simplifications and heuristics. To challenge this assumption, we present a principled evaluation of Bayesian reasoning capabilities in LLMs, analyzing both the model's internal consistency as well as its ability to recover an externally determined posterior. Specifically, we build an evaluation framework spanning qualitative epistemological examples to probe probabilistic coherence, quantitative benchmarks of Bayesian inference capabilities, and analyses of the impact of non-Bayesian updates on downstream task performance. Across different scenarios, we find that LLMs generally violate Bayes' rule when updating their beliefs in context. However, when equipped with modern reasoning abilities and code execution capabilities, their performance drastically improves, enabling even the close approximation of analytically intractable posteriors. Our evaluation shows that current LLMs with access to appropriate tools could already be used to make complex belief updates in scientific discovery, enabling rapid acceleration of the efficiency and scale of AI-powered scientific discovery.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29331
As LLM agents interact in the wild and shape each other's decisions, understanding how they converge toward agreement becomes important. We study this in multi-turn conversations where two LLMs discuss subjective matters, can agree or disagree, and may change their stances. Using a linear classifier on individual conversation activations, we identify an internal representation of agreement. We find that it varies substantially across turns and conversations and does not reliably track external agreement at the individual conversation level. We therefore move beyond the representation of agreement in individual conversations, by aggregating the agreement representation across conversations. Externally, this aggregate view reveals a simple structure: when pooled across conversations, agreement can be predicted well with a Markov process, with agreement at each turn being a direct function of agreement at the previous turn. Similarly, when internal agreement is aggregated, it couples with the external Markov agreement through a power-law mapping, exposing Markovian dynamics in internal representations. Additionally, we find that after a change of stance, models express agreement externally before their internal representations reflect the same shift. These results reveal a joint structure between internal and external agreement that emerges only when internal features are aggregated across conversations. Code available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29328
User-facing LLM agents must identify which behavioral policies apply at each turn, but evaluating every policy with an LLM is costly. We introduce Signals and Queries (S&Q), a lightweight first-stage relevance filter developed for Parlant 4.0 that removes at least 30% of candidate policies before downstream evaluation while preserving high recall. For each policy, an LLM generates activating examples and hard negatives offline. An independent logistic classifier trained on their embeddings then predicts relevance using embeddings and vector dot products, with no per-turn LLM calls. This shifts expensive relevance evaluation to a smaller candidate set, while allowing each policy's classifier to be updated independently. Evaluated against 9,144 LLM-judge relevance labels covering 254 $\tau^2$-bench conversation prefixes and 36 airline policies, S&Q achieves higher precision than top-K and cosine-threshold retrieval at every evaluated recall level, with consistent results across two embedding providers. These findings support inexpensive, per-policy classification as a practical first stage for reducing downstream evaluation workload in customer-facing agents.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29326
Meeting notetakers are increasingly deployed in settings where longitudinal context is available including calendar metadata, prior meetings, emails, slides, and speaker enrollments; however, meeting corpora remain limited in terms of size, domain coverage, and available context. We present OSynth, a large-scale synthetic dataset of simulated organizations comprising 570 hours of meeting audio together with associated artifacts and a latent ground-truth state. In a pairwise comparison, human raters distinguish OSynth meetings from real meeting transcripts with only 56% accuracy based on excerpts of 150-300 words. Across state-of-the-art LLMs, additional context yields significant gains on several entity-sensitive dimensions, demonstrating limitations of contemporary approaches and the potential usefulness of OSynth in developing better-contextualized meeting-understanding systems.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29319
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into embodied robotic planning, yet standard benchmarks primarily evaluate end-to-end task completion in nominal environments, obscuring failure origins across the execution stack. We present Alpha, a systematic fault-injection and robustness-evaluation framework for LLM-driven manipulation in simulation. Alpha injects calibrated faults across perception (sensor lag), actuation (grip slip), kinematics (unreachable targets), and planning (planner-output corruption), alongside concurrent conditions. To separate physical vulnerabilities from planner sensitivities, we introduce a matched methodology pairing an LLM agent (Llama-3 via Ollama) against a deterministic Scripted Oracle planner across a balanced 150-episode matrix under identical seeds, geometries, and safety criteria. Across the matrix, the Oracle achieves 64.0% (48/75) success while the LLM achieves 44.0% (33/75) (paired McNemar p = 3.01 x 10^-4). Crucially, excluding planner-output corruption, performance across all physical and kinematic conditions is identical: 55.0% (33/60) for both planners with zero discordant pairs (McNemar p = 1.00). This demonstrates that physical actuator slip, kinematic reach boundaries, and perceptual staleness affect deterministic controllers and LLM planners equivalently. The performance gap is driven entirely by planner-output corruption (100% Oracle vs. 0% LLM), isolating the prompt-to-JSON serialization and validation interface rather than a cognitive reasoning deficit. We also audit 169 historical pilot attempts for transparency.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30197
Dynamic scheduling requires dispatching online arrivals while anticipating future jobs, as poor decisions can compound downstream costs under nonlinear tardiness objectives. We show that a pretrained large language model (LLM) can serve as the exogenous component of a structured world model, forecasting uncertain future job arrivals. Specifically, we exploit an afterstate decomposition, which separates known deterministic shop transitions from uncertain exogenous job arrivals, enabling the LLM to forecast only the latter through a compact belief representation. Building on this, we develop Afterstate World-Model Planning (AWMP), which combines an evolved, belief-conditioned dispatching strategy with short scenario-based rollouts. A surprise-triggered refresh mechanism queries the LLM only when newly observed arrivals deviate sufficiently from previous forecast, and online residual self-calibration further conditions the LLM on its recent forecast errors to handle nonstationary arrivals. Across diverse arrival distributions, AWMP reduces weighted tardiness by 6-21% on dynamic job-shop and 22-46% on flexible job-shop benchmarks, relative to the best of eight classical priority-dispatching rules.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29308
Evolutionary coding agents such as AlphaEvolve are one of the notable successes in using Large Language Models (LLMs) to build AI Scientists. These agents tackle open-ended scientific problems by iteratively improving and evolving programs, leveraging the prior knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Despite their success, mutations over programs are mostly low-level upon surface heuristics, without a persistent unit of control. In contrast, science compounds through ideas. In this work, we propose ExpEvolve, which injects idea-level extraction and control into evolution: it discovers and leverages the high-level factors from programs that explain scoring differences among different programs. We characterize theoretical conditions on when discovery with idea factors improves sample efficiency. We also build a practical framework to show that the extracted high-level idea factors are helpful for guiding exploitation from experience and exploration when discovery comes to a plateau. Across 11 open-ended mathematical tasks, ExpEvolve significantly improves the final performance and sample efficiency up to 5.0x. The improvements also transfer to 4 other LLMs and to 6 machine learning tasks from MLS-Bench. Analysis shows that ExpEvolve can discover idea-level factors to provide better exploration and exploitation for evolutionary discovery.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29303
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to support consequential decisions, yet their reliability under equivalent representations of uncertainty remains unclear. Existing work has documented prompt sensitivity, cognitive biases, and confidence miscalibration, but it is still unknown whether high-stakes advice changes when the same probability is expressed through complementary gain and loss frames. We introduce FrameBench-HPS, a controlled benchmark of 2,880 prompts derived from 240 high-stakes scenarios across healthcare, finance, education/career, and legal/consumer-rights domains. Across seven LLMs, gain-loss framing changes the recommendation category in 32.4% of complete groups, with most changes involving uncertainty rather than direct reversals. Human evaluation confirms corresponding shifts in perceived risk and directiveness. Robustness experiments show that framing effects persist under conversational paraphrases and exceed ordinary repeated-generation variability. Probability canonicalization substantially reduces framing sensitivity, identifying probability representation as a practical target for improving consistency in high-stakes LLM decision support.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29294
An LLM multi-agent system (MAS) is only as good as the agents it chooses to trust: its accuracy and cost hinge on its topology, meaning which agents are included and how they communicate. A single task score, however, does not reveal which agents help or hinder performance. We propose Contrastive Attribution Topology Search (CATS), which searches for compact teams within a fixed supergraph of specialized agents. An LLM attributer compares execution traces across candidate topologies and assigns credit to individual agents. CATS uses these credits to update supergraph edges while progressively pruning weak edges and agents, yielding a small team for deployment. With small open-weight models and matched candidate evaluations, CATS improves mean accuracy on BigCodeBench by 5.3 percentage points over score-only heuristic search while using 54\% fewer deployment tokens. On MBPP, CATS matches the strongest baselines with fewer tokens than the other searches. In a HotpotQA prompt-poisoning stress test, CATS excludes all adversarially prompted agents in all three runs, whereas random search retains some at comparable accuracy. Per-agent credit thus supports both team optimization and the pruning of potentially harmful agents.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29292
Managed and wild bees sustain roughly a third of the global food products, yet colonies face mounting stress from climate-change including extreme weather patterns, altered parasite and disease patterns. Timely assessment of colony condition such as understanding colony strength, brood area, honey and pollen storage, comb usage, is essential to adaptive management. However, manual hive frame inspection is slow, costly, and quality depends on scarce expertise. We present an artificial targeted intelligent system framework focusing on edge deployable pipeline that turns hive frame photographs into interpretable and action-oriented inspection report. The pipeline includes an object detector to detect biologically-meaningful comb-cell classes; detections are distilled into structured fact schema; facts are converted into constrained factual text; the text triggers a grounded knowledge-base for interpretations and recommendations. Knowledge-base entries are required to be triggerable by evidence expressed in the fact schema. We built our system based on open source FAIRHiveFrames-1K dataset and favour reproducible, edge-deployable models over large general purpose frontier models. We additionally release FAIRHiveText-1K dataset that turns FAIRHiveFrames-1K dataset into interchangeable facts and text interpretation of the facts, making it easy for further LLM-based research into this area. We also propose a pathway to develop the grounded knowledge-base that will be helpful in providing interpretable and actionable reports from the facts.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29283
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), particularly through group-relative policy optimization (GRPO), has emerged as a central paradigm for the post-training of large language models (LLMs). While RLVR is highly effective at enhancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs, it commonly induces \textit{distribution sharpening}, whereby the policy distribution becomes excessively peaked and rare-yet-correct trajectories are progressively suppressed, thus diminishing sample diversity. To this end, we promote flat-reward optima in RLVR to smooth the policy distribution. We theoretically link flat reward RLVR to reduced distribution sharpening, and empirically show improved sample diversity while maintaining single-attempt accuracy. Our method, called \texttt{Flat}-RLVR, searches for flat reward regions via sharpness-aware minimization during LLM post-training, combining this with GRPO variants to achieve better trade-offs between sampling efficiency and reasoning capacity.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29281
Analogical reasoning is widely considered a fundamental component of human intelligence. Few benchmarks are designed to explicitly test far analogical reasoning - reasoning between domains that are superficially dissimilar yet share deep relational or structural similarities. In this work, we introduce an analogical reasoning benchmark called Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus of ANAlogy (ARCANA). The tasks of ARCANA require performing far analogical mappings from real-world objects or physical phenomena to abstract grid-based transformations, different from the well-known ARC-AGI benchmark which primarily emphasized innate human priors. We validate ARCANA through a human study, demonstrating that humans solve these tasks reliably. In contrast, evaluations across a range of large language models show a distinct performance gap compared to humans, revealing systematic failure modes that remain challenging for current models. To address this gap, we propose ConceptSIR, a reasoning framework based on concept slippage, introspection, and reflection. Experiments demonstrate that ConceptSIR enables standard LLMs to solve several challenging ARCANA tasks that were unsolved by direct prompting in our evaluation. Overall, our results suggest that far analogical reasoning remains an open problem for contemporary LLMs. All the materials are available at this http URL. The complete codebase, including benchmark, and ConceptSIR, is publicly available at this https URL. All ARCANA data and task instances can be accessed and explored at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29271
Masked diffusion language models have emerged as an alternative to autoregressive models, enabling parallel token generation. However, standard masked diffusion language models use a shared noise schedule across positions without explicitly encoding which positions should be resolved first. Many tasks exhibit a natural priority among positions: document titles and section headings can guide the generation of body text, while Sudoku cells determined directly from the initial clues can help resolve more difficult cells. To incorporate this notion of priority (or hierarchy) among token positions, we introduce the Hierarchical Masked Diffusion Language Model (HMDLM), which augments each token position with a hierarchy level available as part of the training data, and requires zero or minimal additional annotations. It factors generation into two passes: the first predicts a hierarchy distribution over masked positions, the second predicts token distributions conditioned on it. Giving each hierarchy level its own noise schedule induces a soft, controllable preference for revealing higher-priority positions earlier while keeping decoding fully parallel. Our formulation is mathematically grounded, and we re-derive the forward and reverse processes and the NELBO for this factorization. Our evaluation shows that for the task of language generation on LM1B, HMDLM reduces perplexity by more than 1.5 points over Anchored Diffusion Language Model (ADLM), a recently proposed strong diffusion baseline; on WikiHow, we see a drop in perplexity of up to 4.4 pts on ADLM and up to 7 pts against MDLM. An LLM judge on WikiHow prefers HMDLM generations (the two variants combined) more than $2\times$ as often as the baseline. On the task of solving Sudoku puzzles requiring multi-step reasoning, it improves solution accuracy by up to $8.6\%$ absolute points over existing diffusion baselines.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29255
People share and understand others' experiences differently based on their social identities; often, people empathize more when the other person belongs to their ingroup compared to an outgroup. While this intergroup empathy gap is well-studied in social psychology, it remains unclear how it manifests in naturally occurring online social interactions. To this end, we measure how commenters express social judgments, as an indirect outcome of their understanding towards the posters, and empathy in text, based on whether commenters share the poster's gender or are of similar ages. We focus on posts where the poster self-reports these demographics, and analyze 126,716 comments associated with 36,163 posts from 18,111 commenters in r/AmItheAsshole, while controlling for commenter and poster group identities, post features (topic, length, and score), and both commenter- and post-level variance. Our results show that when commenters and posters are ingroup, in either gender or age, commenters are more likely to provide a Not the Asshole verdict and show greater text-based understanding as measured by LLMs. We also observe that older commenters behave differently from younger ones. Furthermore, in a subset of posts where the gender and age of the other party in the conflict are explicitly mentioned, we find that commenter-poster ingroup effects are moderated by the group relationships between the poster and the other party when commenters make social judgments. Our work highlights the importance of intergroup context and social group nuances in understanding online discourse.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29254
Language-model agents are increasingly asked to run experiments, yet benchmarks rarely measure whether those experiments improve the decisions they are meant to inform. We introduce CrashGym, a deterministic, replayable limit-order-book simulator in which an agent must choose between a deleveraging intervention and a liquidity backstop for a market about to suffer a shock-triggered crash. Before committing, the agent may query intervention experiments in a laboratory realization of the market. Its choice is then scored on an independently seeded target realization in which the simulator executes every feasible intervention, so regret relative to the best intervention is computed by directly simulating every alternative on the same target repeats, with no human or model-based judging. The simulator implements each amplification channel---persistent price impact, liquidity withdrawal, margin-driven liquidation, and an evolving strategy mix---as an explicit mechanism that can be switched on in stages. In a prospectively specified study on 24 newly sampled worlds, laboratory access reduces the mean regret of the one deployment with a complete record (Luna) from 8.878 to 3.785, a paired reduction of 5.092 utility units (nominal 95% world-bootstrap interval: 1.028--9.507), or 57.4% of the OBSERVE-ONLY mean. Prospective comparisons for two further deployments are incomplete; in a separate exploratory study, mean regret is lower with laboratory access for all four deployments evaluated. A laboratory whose strategy mix evolves endogenously yields no established advantage over one with a fixed mix. CrashGym thus measures the value of experimentation as avoided decision loss and lets simulator detail be judged by the decisions it supports.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29245
Streaming video understanding (SVU) requires video-LLMs to process incoming video continuously while answering user queries with low latency. Recent methods reduce query-time cost by prefilling frames into KV caches during idle time and reusing the cached KVs at query time. To bound per-frame computation over unbounded video streams, these methods restrict the context available during prefill. This creates a fundamental context mismatch: the restricted context may omit information needed to properly contextualize video tokens, yet, still contain information irrelevant to the eventual query, which is unknown during prefill. We propose FrameBlend, a simple yet effective plug-and-play method to address this mismatch through selective KV recomputation, without requiring any additional training. At query time, FrameBlend re-prefills selected video tokens using query-relevant context and replaces their cached KVs with recomputed ones. Crucially, this recomputation enables shorter attention windows during idle-time prefill, substantially reducing prefill cost while improving accuracy. Experiments across three SVU frameworks and five streaming and offline benchmarks demonstrate accuracy gains of up to 3.9 pp. On RVS-Ego, FrameBlend reduces per-frame prefill FLOPs by over 20% and total processing time by 14-59% for retrieval-based frameworks, including the cost of query-time recomputation. These results demonstrate that a simple change in how contextualization is distributed between idle time and query time can improve the accuracy-efficiency trade-off for SVU.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29229
Current LLM safety benchmarks predominantly rely on binary safe or unsafe labels, lacking explanatory depth and suffering from low consistency across automated judges. To address this, we introduce DiagSafe, a diagnostic evaluation framework that moves beyond binary classification by employing prompt-level rubrics. Grounded in globally applicable AI safety policies, each rubric provides explicit criteria along two dimensions: safety, which targets concrete harms with specific exemptions to suppress false positives, and usefulness, which independently evaluates instruction fulfillment. To ensure a robust and realistic evaluation, we construct a bilingual (English-Chinese) benchmark grounded in a comprehensive 84-label safety taxonomy, consisting of two subsets: DiagBase, which covers single- and multi-turn prompts with direct harmful queries and template-based jailbreaks, and DiagAttack, which embeds harmful intents into complex instruction-following tasks to form challenging instruction attacks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiagSafe significantly enhances the reliability of LLM-as-a-judge evaluation, achieving 95.34% agreement with human annotations -- substantially higher than the 69%-87% achieved by the baselines -- and high inter-judge consistency (Cohen's $\kappa$ = 0.864). Furthermore, applying our framework reveals that leading LLMs differ markedly in their unsafe rates, and each model also exhibits unique vulnerabilities along different dimensions. In addition, we observe that models are particularly susceptible in Chinese and multi-turn contexts. Ultimately, DiagSafe provides a reliable and explainable tool for auditing and optimizing LLM alignment.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29225
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive emergent reasoning capabilities, yet they remain constrained by fixed model parameters and finite context windows. Even when augmented with static retrieval, they can produce statements that are unsupported by, or even contradictory to, retrieved evidence. This leads to hallucinations, difficulty incorporating up-to-date information, and failures to correctly interpret or reconcile sources. Recent work addresses these limitations by tightly coupling step-by-step reasoning with interactive search, treating retrieval as an action within an iterative agentic loop rather than a one-shot preprocessing step. This study reviews frameworks that implement such reasoning-search loops by interleaving planning, querying, retrieval, integration, verification, and stopping. We analyze these systems through four architectural axes: retrieval coupling, controller design, knowledge source, and grounding strictness. We separately treat the learning signal as a cross-cutting dimension because prompting, supervision, preference optimization, and reinforcement learning can instantiate the same architecture while producing materially different search, stopping, and grounding behavior. We further distinguish benchmark difficulty from RSA-loop demand and synthesize controlled within-study ablations and quality-cost deltas, avoiding invalid pooling across heterogeneous model backbones, retrievers, corpora, and evaluation protocols. Our goal is to clarify the landscape of reasoning-search-augmented LLMs and outline a unified perspective on the design choices shaping future research.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29189
Tables in real-world documents, including scientific papers, financial reports, and statistical summaries, frequently use merged cells, multi-level headers, and sectioned layouts. Yet the lightweight formats LLMs handle best (Markdown, CSV) cannot express these structures, while expressive formats (HTML, LaTeX) impose excessive token cost and parsing complexity. To enable systematic analysis of this trade-off, we introduce a taxonomy decomposing table structure into six atomic features (F1-F6) and corresponding complexity levels (L1-L6), and construct STB (Synthetic Table Benchmark), a controlled benchmark with 1,089 tables systematically distributed across complexity levels. Using this framework, we propose LTEM (LLM-friendly Table-Enhanced Markdown), a formally specified, minimal extension of Markdown that explicitly encodes spans and hierarchical headers. Experiments across five state-of-the-art LLMs show that LTEM achieves accuracy comparable to HTML, offers a favorable accuracy-token trade-off relative to HTML and LaTeX, and produces substantially fewer invalid responses than LaTeX; for table generation, LTEM is comparable to MultiMarkdown though HTML is best. We release our taxonomy, benchmark, and format specification to support future research on LLM-table interaction.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29188