Time_Series
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A Dual-Track Curation-and-Classification Framework for Resolving Ground-Truth Label Noise in Operational Sentinel-2 Wheat Area Estimation
2026-09-29 08:12:04Kasimali Agharia, Ujjwal Kumar GuptaAbstract
Operational estimation of wheat-cultivated area is persistently constrained by discordance between administrative record-keeping and remotely sensed classification products. We address this administrative reference discordance for the 2022 Rabi season in Patiala district, Punjab, India, using a thirteen-timestep Sentinel-2 NDVI time series. A curated 849-sample reference dataset, developed through an iterative rule-based bootstrapping procedure, underpins both a feature sensitivity analysis and an operational classifier. Feature sensitivity independently assessed via Cohen's d and gradient-boosted information gain converges on the February-to-March grain-fill window as most discriminative. Four classifiers (1D-CNN, LSTM, hybrid CNN-LSTM, and XGBoost) were benchmarked on an identical 679/170 sample split. XGBoost achieved the highest overall accuracy (78.82%) against deep-learning baselines (64-66%), consistent with tree-based ensembles' favourable parameter-to-sample ratio in low-sample regimes. At full-population deployment across 36.25 million valid district pixels, the operational classifier attained 86.31% precision and 71.05% recall. The predicted wheat extent deviated by only +2.99% from the official tabular target, whereas the government's spatial reference mask exhibited a +25.11% positive area bias against the identical target. This asymmetry indicates that a classifier trained on an auditor-curated reference set reconciles more closely with the official tabular area than the spatial product conventionally used to validate it. We present this dual-track curation-and-classification framework as a methodological reference for crop-area reconciliation in label-noisy administrative settings.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36975
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JudgeCast: Time Series Forecasting with Experience-Informed Covariate Judgements
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Covariate effects vary across contexts and shift over time, requiring forecasters to assess how to use them for each forecasting context. As forecasting proceeds, observations for earlier forecasts become available, providing feedback on past covariate use for subsequent forecasts. However, when multiple covariates act together, the forecast error reveals the numerical discrepancy from the observation but not how the covariates should have been used. We introduce JudgeCast, an experience-based framework for time series forecasting with covariates. Following the judgmental adjustment practice, a frozen TSFM provides the base forecast, while a frozen LLM uses the current context and relevant experience to adjust it. Within the adjustment, assessing covariate effects and determining the numerical adjustment serve distinct roles, so JudgeCast first forms explicit covariate-wise judgments and then determines the adjustment. After observation, JudgeCast uses the observed residual of the base forecast to reconstruct alternative judgments and evaluates the original and alternatives through their resulting adjustments. The best-performing decision is selected and retained as validated experience for subsequent forecasts. Across diverse real-world datasets, JudgeCast outperforms strong baselines. Ablations show that explicit covariate-wise judgment can improve forecast-time adjustment, while residual-guided experience construction yields more reliable forecasting gains than retaining raw decisions as experience.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36966
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State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting
2026-09-29 07:42:31Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang MingmingAbstract
Recent power measurements provide valuable information for photovoltaic(PV) power forecasting, but directly extrapolating short-term trends can introduce substantial errors over longer forecast horizons. To address this challenge, we propose state transport routing (STR), a lightweight adapter that refines the predictions of a frozen forecasting model. STR combines the original forecast with two complementary trajectories derived from the latest measured power level and its recent trend. A horizon-conditioned router adjusts their contributions over the first 120 min, while leaving subsequent predictions unchanged. Experiments on four public PV datasets show that STR consistently outperforms a parameter-matched residual adapter. On PVDAQ, the same approach improves five neural forecasting backbones, reducing all-horizon normalized mean absolute error by 0.0201-0.2364 percentage points, with paired 95% confidence intervals excluding zero. No reliable improvement is observed for LightGBM. These findings demonstrate the potential of structured state adaptation to improve short-term forecasting across different neural architectures without retraining the underlying models or altering their longer-horizon predictions.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36926
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Cyclostationary Phase Conditioning for Medical Time Series Diffusion
2026-09-29 07:12:03Samuel Ruiperez-Campillo, Michele Copetti, Jorge da Silva Goncalves, Sonia Laguna, Thomas Hofmann, Julia E. VogtAbstract
Many physiological time series, such as cardiac and brain recordings, exhibit cyclostationarity: their statistics vary periodically with an underlying cycle phase. Corruption from motion, poor contact, and physiological interference obscures morphology needed for diagnosis, making signal restoration essential. Existing diffusion approaches condition on corrupted observations alone and must learn cyclic structure implicitly. We instead propose two inductive biases which encode cyclostationarity: a shift-covariant wavelet representation and dense per-sample phase conditioning inferred from the corrupted input. We further introduce a training-free cyclostationarity index that quantifies phase structure and predicts when phase conditioning will help. Finally, we propose antithetic coupling of reverse trajectories to reduce sampling variance while achieving comparable performance with fivefold fewer network evaluations. Across modalities, our results show that explicitly encoding measurable cyclic structure improves physiological time-series restoration.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34965
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Geometry-Conditioned Fixed-Scaffold Encoders for Time-Warp Robust Sequence Retrieval
2026-09-29 06:23:02Cassandra Yang, Yufan TangAbstract
Embedding-based retrieval is attractive for long sequence collections because each item can be encoded once and searched by nearest-neighbor ranking. The difficulty is that the objects being indexed are often observed under a noncanonical clock: cardiac cycles stretch with rate, speech changes with tempo, and sensor traces reach comparable states at different speeds. This paper studies a specific source of instability in patch-based encoders for this regime. If patch boundaries are chosen from signal geometry, then the tokenization can change under the same temporal deformation that the representation is expected to tolerate. We propose GeoPatch, a fixed-scaffold patch encoder that keeps token support independent of geometry and uses slope, curvature, acceleration, affine-residual, and confidence descriptors only as continuous conditioning variables. The design turns boundary variation into feature modulation: geometry can change the embedding through a controlled pathway, but it cannot change the number, order, or support of local tokens. We formalize this distinction through a mechanism-level stability analysis that separates boundary drift, affine timing variation, confidence-weighted geometry perturbation, and retrieval-margin effects. The same local tokens support global embedding retrieval and late-interaction scoring, so the scoring rule can be matched to the evaluation protocol. Across ECG, speech, and multivariate time-series retrieval tasks, GeoPatch improves early-rank retrieval under timing variation while exposing a clear trade-off between local surface matching and strict non-overlap retrieval.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36809
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Channel-Dependent State Space Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
2026-09-29 01:15:46Yu-Cheng Wu, Fan-Keng Sun, Li-Chun Lu, Duane S. BoningAbstract
Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is critical across many real-world domains. Existing deep learning approaches fall into two paradigms with distinct limitations: channel-independent (CI) methods unconditionally ignore cross-variable dependencies and model only temporal dynamics, while channel-dependent (CD) methods consider both but typically rely on architectural compromises to mitigate overfitting and computational overhead. We therefore propose Chameleon, a specialized CD state space model (SSM) that enables data-dependent, fine-grained interactions across variables while scaling linearly with their number. By connecting selective SSMs with the Kalman filter, we leverage the missing measurement update in the former for cross-variable modeling while preserving the SSM backbone for robust temporal modeling. We further identify favorable inductive biases of GatedDeltaNet for time series, adapt it as our backbone, and improve generalization through additional techniques, including a previously unexplored stochastic perturbation of reversible instance normalization. On strongly dependent ODE and PEMS datasets, Chameleon achieves the best MSE and MAE across all settings, while its CI ablation and prior CD methods incur 61-178% higher MSE on average. Across 28 standard benchmark settings, Chameleon also achieves better MSE and MAE than each baseline in at least 27 and 22 cases, respectively. Training-time and peak-memory analyses on Traffic and ETT further demonstrate competitive efficiency and favorable memory scalability across different variable counts.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36453
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One-Step Next-Latent Prediction Is Not a World Model
2026-09-28 20:24:50Shitong Wang, Zhongang Cai, Yuzhou HongAbstract
Next-latent prediction fits a map from the current embedding to the next one. LeNEPA carries this objective to time series, replacing the stop-gradient of next-embedding prediction with the isotropy penalty of LeJEPA. A world model is a transition kernel that can be rolled out. The one-step regression identifies a conditional mean, and a mean is a kernel only in special cases. For a linear-Gaussian Markov latent, the mean transition and the innovation covariance are fixed by the one-step problem, and the open-loop squared error at horizon $K$ equals the trace of the sum of the pushed-forward innovation covariances. That error grows with $K$ after the one-step fit is exact. If the conditional mean is nonlinear, composing it is not the multi-step conditional mean. If the observation is a non-injective function of a Markov state, a memoryless one-step map does not determine future observations, while a short window can. An isotropy penalty is a function of the embedding marginal, so its partial derivative in the transition weights is zero. On a scalar autoregression with coefficient $0.9$, the one-step mean squared error is $0.998$ and the $16$-step open-loop error is $5.10$. On a hidden rotation, an eight-step window reaches $16$-step error $0.056$, while the current scalar alone reaches $0.778$. Raising the isotropy weight from $0.1$ to $10$ leaves eight-step latent error inside $[0.78,0.85]$ on three seeds.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36227
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ViSTA: A Simple Bridge Extends Visual Alignment to Clinical Time-Series Understanding in Multimodal LLMs
2026-09-25 16:06:29Junyi Gao, Yu Shi, Pingzhao Hu, Ewen M HarrisonAbstract
Clinical prediction models estimate risk from patient measurements, while large language models support medical text understanding and question answering. Yet their language capabilities do not ensure accurate prediction from structured, high-dimensional clinical time series. Improving this ability would connect risk estimation with flexible questions about a patient's evolving condition. We introduce ViSTA, a compact adapter that incorporates irregular numerical measurements into a pretrained vision-language model's chart representations. It learns corrections to visual tokens while leaving all pretrained parameters unchanged. On MIMIC-IV, ViSTA has the highest mean scores among the compared adaptations on all four metrics for acute kidney injury and mortality prediction across models with 2-9 billion parameters. With 0.516 million trainable parameters, the 2-billion-parameter model reaches an area under the ROC curve of 0.7376 for acute kidney injury, compared with GPT-5.6 Sol's 0.7380 with text input and high reasoning effort. Training for temporal question answering yields 69.27% accuracy at 4 billion parameters with over 90% fewer trainable parameters than low-rank adaptation using charts or numerical text, at a 2.82-4.88 percentage-point accuracy gap. ViSTA extends pretrained language models to numerical prediction and temporal questions.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31448
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EXAONE Demand 1.0: A Time Series Foundation Model for Demand Forecasting
2026-09-25 06:37:39Seunghan Lee, Sangjun Han, Jun Seo, Junhyeok Kang, Jaehoon Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin AhnAbstract
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are pretrained on series from diverse domains, where demand series make up only a small fraction. Demand data has properties that such corpora rarely contain: Short histories, frequent zeros, censoring by stock-outs, and exogenous events that the series does not record. To this end, we propose EXAONE Demand, built on 1) a demand-specific corpus and 2) a demand-aware adapter. For the corpus, we assemble 11.3M series and 48.4B observations from 73 sources, and a synthetic generator supplies the behaviour that open demand data under-represents. For the adapter, we attach low-rank branches to a frozen general-domain backbone, one for each of the four demand classes (smooth, intermittent, erratic, and lumpy), and a router that reads eight scale-free statistics of the input series decides how much each branch contributes. We build EXAONE Demand in two versions, one trained on real-world and synthetic demand together and one trained on the synthetic corpus alone. On 22 held-out datasets, both versions outperform 36 TSFMs, and real-world demand adds a gain over synthetic data alone.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30880
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A Synthetic Ground-Truth Framework for the Evaluation of Explainable AI Methods
2026-09-24 18:04:03Miquel Mir\'o-Nicolau, Francesco Spinnato, Riccardo GuidottiAbstract
Evaluating explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods is a challenging task due to the lack of reliable evaluation procedures and, in particular, the absence of ground truth explanations. In the literature, existing evaluation approaches typically assess explanations by measuring their fidelity with respect to the predictions of a black-box model. However, such evaluation strategies only quantify the degree to which an explanation reproduces the model's output, without ensuring that the explanation correctly reflects the underlying decision process. As a consequence, different explanations may achieve similar fidelity scores while providing inconsistent or misleading interpretations of the model behavior. In this paper, we propose a framework for the evaluation of XAI methods based on synthetic ground truth. The proposed approach relies on controlled interventions to generate synthetic datasets in which the importance of input components can be determined by design. This enables the construction of ground truth explanations that are directly aligned with the behavior of the model under analysis. The framework is instantiated across three data domains, namely binary images, tabular data, and time series, allowing a comprehensive assessment of explanation methods in heterogeneous settings. Experimental results obtained by evaluating nine widely used XAI methods show significant limitations in current techniques and highlight the importance of synthetic, intervention-based benchmarks for a reliable assessment of explanation quality.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30397
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NNV3: Expanding Neural Network Verification to New Architectures and Domains
2026-09-24 16:11:25Anne M. Tumlin, Samuel Sasaki, Ben Wooding, Diego Manzanas Lopez, Muhammad Usama Zubair, Navid Hashemi, Hongchao Zhang, Waseem Abbas, Ipek Oguz, Meiyi Ma, Taylor T. JohnsonAbstract
We present NNV3, the latest version of the Neural Network Verification (NNV) tool, a MATLAB framework for formal verification of deep learning models and learning-enabled cyber-physical systems. Building on the set-based reachability foundation of NNV 1.0 (FFNNs, CNNs, NNCS) and NNV 2.0 (RNNs, SSNNs, neural ODEs), NNV3 introduces new members of the Star-set family: ModelStar for verifying networks under weight perturbation, VolumeStar for video and 3D volumetric inputs, and GraphStar for graph neural networks. A conformal-inference-based probabilistic reachability mode complements sound analysis for problems where deterministic verification is intractable, while FairNNV certifies counterfactual and individual fairness properties over continuous input regions. NNV3 introduces new benchmarks for malware detection, graph-based power-system models, medical imaging, variable-length time series data, and action recognition. NNV3 also incorporates tutorials and developer guides through a unified documentation site. This paper details these major updates, demonstrating NNV's maturation into a comprehensive, robust, and accessible verification tool for a diverse range of AI systems.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30050
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TimeBraid: Unifying Time Series and Language for Understanding and Forecasting
2026-09-24 13:30:02Xinyue Wang, Jiacheng Pang, Kun Zhou, Kexin Zhang, Defu Cao, Fan Feng, Faisal, Songyao Jin, Yan Liu, Biwei HuangAbstract
We present TimeBraid, a series of unified time-series and language models that align pretrained language models and pretrained time-series foundation models through interleaved global residual attention layers. Each model inherits knowledge, instruction following, and reasoning from one side, continuous-signal perception and zero-shot forecasting from the other, and fuses the two in a shared representation space where both modalities are understood and generated. We study the design choices that make such unified modeling work: where to align the two representation spaces, how to ground language in temporal structure, how to balance understanding with generation, and how to keep joint optimization stable. The resulting recipe combines a unified prompting scheme for diverse time-series and text tasks, stabilized joint training, and supervision from 2.2M curated series--text pairs and 4.9M instruction-tuning samples. Across benchmarks spanning time-series perception, understanding, reasoning, and both context-aided and unimodal forecasting, TimeBraid remains competitive with far larger general-purpose models and task-specific counterparts.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29792
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Neuralized Multi-Wavelet Decomposition for Time Series Classification and Forecasting
2026-09-24 09:51:47Xiaohan Jiang, Jingyuan Wang, Jiahao Ji, Yongyao Wang, Chen Yang, Junjie WuAbstract
Time series analysis is fundamental in domains such as finance, healthcare, and meteorology. Real-world time series often exhibit multiscale characteristics shaped by diverse latent factors, resulting in intricate temporal patterns and rich frequency structures. However, existing approaches typically focus on either frequency-domain decomposition or time-domain pattern extraction in isolation, neglecting their joint structure. This decoupled modeling limits representation expressiveness and undermines performance in tasks requiring simultaneous temporal and spectral reasoning. To address this gap, we propose m-WCN, a novel end-to-end deep learning framework that neuralizes multi-wavelet decomposition for joint extraction of temporal patterns and frequency components. By approximating the classical GHM multi-wavelet transform with trainable convolutional operators and enforcing orthogonality constraints, m-WCN produces interpretable multi-resolution representations. Built on this foundation, we introduce two task-specific architectures: TFBC for time series classification, which boosts discriminative features across frequency scales, and FTB for forecasting, which ensembles frequency-aware predictors. Extensive experiments on 64 UCR datasets and seven public forecasting benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Built on the neuralized m-WCN, our TFBC and FTB outperform various baseline models across diverse datasets, achieving average improvements of 19.97% in classification and 19.92% in forecasting tasks.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29317
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Continuous Online Fault Detection for Mobile Robots via Adaptive Edge Models
2026-09-24 08:06:22Jordan Levy, Nicolas Verstaevel, Vincent Talon, Benoit GaudouAbstract
Mobile robots require robust, real-time fault detection capable of continuous adaptation on constrained edge hardware. While deep time-series models excel at unsupervised anomaly detection, their computational cost prohibits high-frequency onboard execution. This paper bridges this gap via a Teacher-Student distillation framework. An offline foundation model (TSPulse) generates pseudo-labels from unlabeled time series augmented with fault injections. A lightweight MiniRocket Student, adapted with a Recursive Least Squares estimator, approximates this complex decision boundary to execute real-time inference onboard. Evaluations on the TSB-AD benchmark and a physical mobile robot demonstrate the Student achieves a 4.30 ms CPU inference latency. During real-world domain shifts, online adaptation enables the Student to recover from unseen mechanical degradation, improving VUS-PR scores from 0.26 to 0.75 without catastrophic forgetting. Crucially, an uncertainty-guided active learning strategy minimizes operator cognitive load, requesting sparse interventions only when encountering novel fault distributions. These results validate the deployment of state-of-the-art anomaly detection on resource-constrained robotics through offline-to-online distillation.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29194
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Predicting the Progression of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis
2026-09-23 17:33:31Owen Pullen, Amir Jamaludin, Andrew ZissermanAbstract
Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis is defined as a lateral curvature of the spine that develops during adolescence, without known cause. The condition can result in significant pain and disability, and often progresses rapidly during adolescence. The objective of this paper is to predict the progression of the condition in a temporal sequence from ages 9 to 24, as measured from a sequence of Dual X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) scans. To this end, we train a transformer model that takes in the curve of the spine to predict curve progression. The model is trained using a large-scale synthetic dataset of spine curves and their time series, covering different curve types and different progression patterns. We show that the model is able to generalise from synthetic to real data by evaluating it on a dataset of real DXA scans covering multiple time points. We find that fine-tuning the model on real data gives a significant boost to performance. The model is able to accurately predict spine curve progression in both scoliosis and normal cases.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28434
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SGA: Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Step Forecasting in Time Series Foundation Models
2026-09-23 13:19:54Xin-Yu Hu, Shuang Liang, Cheng Feng, Shao-Qun ZhangAbstract
The recent emergence of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced multi-step forecasting performance, enabling accurate predictions over extended future horizons. However, existing TSFMs often suffer from significantly inherent uncertainty, which typically manifests as derived forecast branches emerging at each time step and spreading to subsequent steps; different forecast branches often exhibit varying forecasting performance, thereby undermining the credibility of TSFM forecasts. In this paper, we propose the Slicing-Graphing-Alignment (SGA) method to quantify the uncertainty of multi-step TSFM forecasts. The proposed SGA first characterizes the topology of all potential forecast branches using a directed acyclic graph, such that the graph complexity bounds the uncertainty of multi-step forecasts, and then precisely measures the graph complexity by integrating both topological information and TSFM-inherent stochasticity. Experimental results conducted on 11 TSFMs and 27 datasets demonstrate that (i) SGA achieves the best performance when ranking predictive errors with uncertainty estimates; (ii) SGA works with a more extensive and more precise sampling coverage than those of existing UQ methods, deriving a quantification mechanism fundamentally different from those of established ones; and (iii) larger model scales of TSFMs correlate with lower uncertainty estimates of multi-step forecasts, suggesting another empirical scaling law for uncertainty quantification of multi-step TSFM forecasts.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28582
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Forecast Workflow Bench: Evaluating Language-Model Decisions with Budgeted Forecast Tools
2026-09-23 05:35:40Shunya NagashimaAbstract
Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide forecasts for operational decisions, but accuracy alone does not determine their value. Evaluating agents that use these models requires measuring decision quality and forecast cost. FWBench evaluates this capability on 1,251 electricity and cycle-hire cases using fixed forecast tools and simulated capacity contracts. Agents select models, histories and horizons, then submit capacities to minimize a stated loss-cost objective. We evaluated two hosted and eight local configurations, including small language models, and tested local models with and without TSFMs. GPT-6 Astra bought inexpensive short-horizon forecasts selectively, using 2.5% of the budget, and outperformed fixed policies when the saved decisions were scored with three loss-cost weightings. FWBench enables reproducible evaluation of how language models select and use time-series forecasts to make decisions under cost constraints.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27385
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TimeEvo: Failure-Driven Self-Evolution of a Time Series Agent
2026-09-23 03:08:12Jie Yang, Yan Zheng, Jiarui Sun, Xiran Fan, Junpeng Wang, Liang Wang, Zelin Xu, Qinghua Liu, Zhengyu Fang, Yiwei Cai, Philip S. YuAbstract
Time series agents answer analytical questions by calling external tools, and which tools they carry is decided by people before the agent runs. However, we identify two failures in this setup. Human-Agent Tool Misalignment: a library of 21 expert-curated tools helps on some tasks and hurts on others, dropping anomaly accuracy under every backbone we test. Silent Harm: one round of generic self-revision changes 147 answers and breaks 56 of them, while the final score moves by less than a point. Both follow from the same gap: whether a tool helps is decided question by question at runtime, while tools are supplied in advance and judged by a single average. To address this, we propose TimeEvo, which clusters an agent's diagnosed failures into capability gaps, plans a measurement for each, synthesizes evidence-only tools that fill them, and admits the candidate library only through a paired admission gate. Experiments on ten time series QA tasks and three backbones show that TimeEvo, starting from an empty library, improves accuracy on every task and every backbone, and that a library grown on a cheap model still gains when it is installed into stronger ones. Code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27277
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Learning Dissipative Dynamics with Dissipativity-by-Construction Discrete-Time Neural Networks
2026-09-23 00:49:49Tuan Luong, Hyungpil MoonAbstract
Dissipativity is a fundamental system-theoretic property closely related to stability, passivity, and input--output stability, and is particularly important in robotics, where learned dynamics models are often embedded within feedback control loops. However, most existing approaches for learning dissipative dynamics are based on continuous-time formulations, which require ODE solvers during training or inference and can therefore be computationally expensive. Moreover, because practical implementations are inherently discrete-time, direct discretization of a continuous-time passive system does not necessarily preserve passivity, motivating the need for explicit discrete-time guarantees. This study proposes a method for learning incrementally dissipative dynamics from input--output time-series data using a deep multilayer perceptron formulated directly in discrete time. Through a constrained parameterization and a dedicated training procedure, the proposed model guarantees incremental dissipativity by construction rather than through regularization. Lyapunov-based analysis establishes the corresponding dissipativity and stability guarantees, while simulations on robotic dynamical systems demonstrate competitive prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and consistent preservation of incremental dissipativity compared with baseline methods.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27188
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Latent Dataset Distillation for Human Motion Prediction
2026-09-22 13:54:23Ge Tian, Guang Li, Takahiro Ogawa, Miki HaseyamaAbstract
Dataset distillation (DD) compresses a large training set into a compact synthetic set while preserving downstream training utility. Although DD has been widely studied for images and recently extended to time-series forecasting, its application to human motion prediction remains largely unexplored. Human motion is high-dimensional and structurally coupled, and gradient matching (GM) in the original motion space optimizes many correlated variables without a prior on pose plausibility or temporal dynamics, which frequently yields implausible and unstable synthetic motions. To address this limitation, we propose a latent DD framework that regularizes distillation with a learned motion prior. Motions are first compressed by a residual-quantized variational autoencoder (RVQ-VAE), and distillation then updates only a learnable latent bank through the frozen quantizer and decoder. The pretrained decoder restricts synthetic motions to its output space, while residual quantization progressively refines the latent approximation across multiple codebooks and alleviates the representational bottleneck of single-stage vector quantization. Experiments on Human3.6M, CMU, and 3DPW with two prediction backbones show that the proposed framework outperforms direct GM in 27 of 30 evaluated settings and random subsets in every setting, and produces visibly more plausible synthetic motions in qualitative comparisons.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26430
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