Time_Series
-
Focus, Align, and Diffuse: Time-Series-Aware Keyframe Diffusion for Cardiac Dynamic Synthesis from Sparse Observations
2026-10-13 18:49:36Junkai Liu, Haofan Wu, Nay Aung, Joao A. C. Lima, Steffen E. Petersen, Le ZhangAbstract
Dense cardiac dynamics are essential for assessing cardiac function, yet in practice clinicians often observe only extremely sparse measurements. However, recovering full dynamics from such sparsity is a highly ill-posed problem due to the lack of temporal cues. While auxiliary time-series signals like ECG provide physiological guidance, effectively exploiting them is challenging due to the cross-modal representation gap and phase misalignment. In this work, we present CardioFAD, a Focus--Align--Diffuse paradigm that reformulates sparse cardiac dynamic synthesis as a recoverability--alignability anchor discovery problem. Our core insight is that resolving extreme temporal ambiguity requires a compact set of anchor states that are both sufficient to recover the visual trajectory and reliable for ECG--visual alignment. We therefore learn motion-salient keyframes under two complementary principles: trajectory sufficiency, which preserves trajectory-critical intra-modal motion content, and anchor alignment, which promotes consistent inter-modal correspondence at these anchors. We implement the Focus and Align modules optimized by the two aspects. Diffuse then performs two-stage generation by first synthesizing keyframes and subsequently interpolating the remaining frames. Extensive experiments on cardiac MRI and echocardiography videos demonstrate superior visual quality, temporal coherence, and improved functional consistency under the extreme one-shot regime.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19050
PDF
-
FALLNEST: Dual-Domain Dataset Condensation of Imbalanced IMU Data for Wearable Fall Detection
2026-10-13 12:25:20Rashi Niyas P, Ritika Jain, Hitika TiwariAbstract
Wearable fall detection is hampered by rare fall events, scarce labeled IMU data, and the cost of training deep models on large, imbalanced corpora. Existing methods either rely on hand-crafted features with shallow classifiers, which limits learning from raw signals, or train deep networks on full datasets that require re-sampling to counter class skew and demand substantial data and compute. To address this, we propose a novel Fall detection framework via Normalized-gradient and Embedding matched Synthetic Time-frequency condensation, dubbed FALLNEST, a data-centric approach that distills large, imbalanced IMU datasets into tiny, class-balanced synthetic training sets. Building on dual-domain time-series condensation (CondTSC), FALLNEST introduces a fall-specific 7-channel input with accelerometer vector magnitude, class-balanced K-Means initialization, and normalized gradient matching with gradient clipping, combined with MMD-based embedding alignment and multi-view Fourier-domain augmentation, so that class balance arises from the condensed set itself rather than from re-sampling. We evaluate on SisFall, KFall, and MobiFall using strict subject-wise splits and naturally imbalanced test sets, reporting accuracy, Macro-F1, and PR-AUC over five seeds. A 102K-parameter TinyCNN trained on only 32 to 146 synthetic windows (about only 1% of the training windows) reaches 93.5-95.8% mean accuracy and 0.89-0.98 PR-AUC, with standard deviations of 1.0-1.7% in accuracy, demonstrating the efficacy of our approach.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18260
PDF
-
TStruct: Learning Shared Temporal Structures for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting
2026-10-13 07:24:58Yangze Li, Zhengyang Zhou, Qihe Huang, Pengkun Wang, Binwu Wang, Yang WangAbstract
Long-term time series forecasting requires temporal dependency modeling that remains stable and generalizable under temporal distribution shifts. However, real-world time series are often noisy and non-stationary, making deep learning models prone to fitting incidental temporal interactions in the training data. A key question is whether there exist temporal relationship structures that recur across different temporal positions and variables. We analyze temporal relationship matrices on commonly used time series datasets and find that samples from different temporal positions and different variables exhibit shared dominant temporal relationship structures. This indicates that temporal relationship structures contain patterns that recur stably across samples and variables. To learn such shared structures, we propose \textbf{T}emporal \textbf{Struct}ure Network (\textbf{TStruct}), a simple yet effective network for directly learning shared and generalizable temporal dependencies. Specifically, TStruct directly parameterizes a set of shared temporal dependency matrices and generates normalized combination weights using dynamic sample information and static variable priors. These weights represent a soft allocation of each sample-variable pair over shared temporal dependency structures, enabling the model to generate adaptive temporal dependency matrices under shared structural constraints, rather than fitting incidental interactions in a fully unconstrained manner. Notably, this simple structure-aware design consistently outperforms several strong baselines across all datasets, achieving superior accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17864
PDF
-
GIFT-Eval-CTX: A Benchmark For Contextual Forecasting Model Evaluation
2026-10-13 06:21:50Xu Liu, Hanshu Yan, Taha Aksu, Quang Pham, Zhongzheng Qiao, Jun Hao Liew, Silvio Savarese, Doyen Sahoo, Junnan LiAbstract
Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17794
PDF
-
Agentic4PDM: Host-Governed Evidence Admissibility for Industrial Fault Diagnosis
2026-10-13 06:14:27Nam V. Nguyen, Hoang Van Truong, Hieu D. D., Duy Khuong Nguyen, Quang Pham, Tung KieuAbstract
We study industrial fault diagnosis as a classification task that assigns sensor time-series windows to predefined health states or fault types. Scarce labels and changing operating conditions make repeated training of specialized classifiers costly. Yet structures such as periodicity, trends, and transients can remain diagnostically informative and be examined through reusable analytical tools. LLM agents can select and interpret these tools, but fixed rules or training-derived guidance may not resolve each signal's ambiguity, while unconstrained interpretation may overstate weak or conflicting results. We introduce Agentic4PDM, a framework that separates adaptive investigation from control over evidence use. LLM agents compare each signal with labeled references from every candidate class, identify unresolved distinctions, and propose follow-up measurements. A deterministic software controller, called the host, enforces contract-checked gated adjudication (CCGA): it checks requests, requires commitment to a complete tool batch before results are observed, and assigns evidence roles based on tool checks against labeled references. These roles distinguish corroborative support from advisory information. The Judge Agent proposes a diagnosis, while the controller checks protocol compliance and records the investigation. Agentic4PDM supports training-free diagnosis using pretrained representations and labeled references without task-specific diagnostic models, and a standard setting that additionally investigates trained-model predictions. Experiments on selected bearing and motor diagnosis challenges and an unfiltered industrial test set supplied by our customer show gains in aggregate macro F1 over the evaluated diagnostic and agentic baselines. Ablations further support the value of the governed workflow.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17786
PDF
-
An FPGA-Based Spiking Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Pattern Learning and Classification
2026-10-12 22:26:18Jingang Jin, Yue Ma, Zhenhang Zhang, Qinru QiuAbstract
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are promising for energy-efficient spatiotemporal pattern recognition at the edge, but efficient deployment and on-device adaptation require specialized hardware. In this work, we present an FPGA implementation of multilayer SNNs for spatiotemporal pattern classification, in which both inference and training take place on the same hardware. Our design adopts a temporal-forward-only training algorithm that avoids the memory and latency overhead associated with traditional Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT). A mixed-precision scheme balances training stability with resource efficiency, and architectural optimization maximizes hardware and memory utilization. We further identify and resolve hazards that arise when inference and learning share the same memory, including port conflicts between the forward and backward access patterns and read-after-write dependencies in floating-point potential accumulation. Experimental evaluations on MNIST and five multivariate time-series classification datasets demonstrate that, with fully on-chip training, our SNN model achieves accuracy comparable to SNN or LSTM trained with BPTT. Compared to CPU and GPU based implementations, our FPGA design delivers 2.5 to 6 times higher throughput while consuming an order of magnitude less energy per sample.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17463
PDF
-
Naga: Vedic Encoding for Deep State Space Models
2026-10-12 15:12:47Melanie Schaller, Nick Janssen, Bodo RosenhahnAbstract
This paper presents Naga, a deep State Space Model (SSM) encoding approach inspired by structural concepts from Vedic mathematics. The proposed method introduces a bidirectional representation for time series by jointly processing forward and time-reversed input sequences. These representations are then combined through an element-wise (Hadamard) interaction, resulting in a Vedic-inspired encoding that enhances the model's ability to capture temporal dependencies across distant time steps. We evaluate Naga on multiple long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) benchmarks, including ETTh1, ETTh2, ETTm1, ETTm2, Weather, Traffic, and ILI. The experimental results show that Naga outperforms 28 current state of the art models and demonstrates improved efficiency compared to existing deep SSM-based approaches. The findings suggest that incorporating structured, Vedic-inspired decomposition can provide an interpretable and computationally efficient alternative for long-range sequence modeling.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.13510
PDF
-
ChronoScribe: Semantic-Numerical Specialization for Instruction-Driven Time Series Forecasting
2026-10-12 08:03:26Yuchen Jiao, Miao Zhang, Yuxuan Liu, Chengxi LiAbstract
Recent advances in instruction-driven time series forecasting highlight a fundamental tension: systems must simultaneously master natural-language instruction following and precise numerical prediction. Current approaches often force a compromise. Large language models (LLMs) can interpret unstructured requests but may be inaccurate when asked to produce forecast values directly, whereas time series foundation models (TSFMs) provide numerical forecasts but typically require structured inputs specifying the target series, context window, and horizon. We present ChronoScribe, which applies semantic-numerical specialization to this workflow. A LoRA-adapted LLM proposes an execution path and context length; deterministic rules resolve the executable configuration. On the specialist path, a frozen TSFM produces quantile trajectories for the task-specified horizon. Deterministic trajectory summaries condition the response, while the LLM neither generates nor revises predicted values. We evaluate a Qwen3.5-9B--Chronos-2 implementation across 23 evaluation dimensions and 30 public datasets against eleven proprietary direct LLMs and three open TSFMs. ChronoScribe has the lowest error on sMAPE, MASE, WAPE, RMSE, and MAE among all evaluated systems, including fixed-context controls. Across these metrics, even the lowest direct-LLM error remains 2.0--2.7 times the corresponding ChronoScribe error. At the system level, ChronoScribe achieves a Task-Level Score (TLS) of 65.5, 10.6 points above the strongest direct-LLM baseline. The results support ChronoScribe's division of labor, in which the LLM handles interpretation, configuration, and communication while the TSFM handles numerical forecasting.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16345
PDF
-
OneShot: Label-Efficient Detector Weighting for Time Series Anomaly Detection
2026-10-12 05:49:42Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Sungdong Yoo, Minjae Kim, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin AhnAbstract
Time series (TS) anomaly detection (AD) lacks a universal detector, with the best choice determined by the series rather than by the algorithm. Existing methods therefore either select one detector for each series or average a pool of them. However, both assume that no label ever arrives, while a deployed monitor does receive them, since an operator confirms the alarms it raises. In this paper, we propose ONESHOT, which uses a single confirmed anomaly to weight the pool rather than to choose one detector from it. Specifically, we score each detector on the confirmed anomaly, and those scores become the weights of a soft mixture over the whole pool. We show that a single confirmed anomaly is enough to come close to the best detector for the series. Across 152 univariate and 73 multivariate series, ONESHOT outperforms the strongest single detector, averaging the whole pool, and even picking the best detector on the confirmed event. Code is available at: this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16219
PDF
-
Constructed regional photovoltaic generation fields improve ultra-short-term distributed solar forecasting
2026-10-12 03:17:25Dayin Chen, Xiaodan Shi, Xin Xu, Zhongyue Su, Shibo Zhu, Dongxiao Zhang, Yuntian Chen, Jinyue YanAbstract
Ultra-short-term forecasting of densely distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems remains challenging because external meteorological and satellite products may not adequately resolve rapid local variations, while heterogeneous PV systems exhibit different generation responses under similar atmospheric conditions. Meanwhile, dense PV fleets provide spatially distributed measurements that reveal regional generation dynamics. Here, we reformulate fleet-level PV forecasting from modeling discrete station time series to predicting explicit, spatially structured regional PV generation fields. We develop SatPV-Field, a regional-to-local forecasting framework that transforms distributed PV measurements into image-like generation fields and models their spatiotemporal evolution. By combining historical PV fields with satellite-derived future shortwave radiation guidance and meteorological forecasts, the framework predicts future regional generation states, which subsequently provide location-specific guidance for individual-station forecasting. Experiments involving 496 distributed PV systems, including 446 source stations and 50 held-out target stations, demonstrate that these regional fields can be effectively forecast and used to improve station-level predictions. The proposed approach reduces station-level MAE by approximately 10.0% relative to the best-performing single-station temporal baseline and by 2.5% relative to a graph-based regional forecasting approach using the same source fleet. These findings establish an explicit spatial-field modeling paradigm that connects regional generation dynamics with individual-site forecasting.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16110
PDF
-
Learning Multimodal Sensor Fusion with JEPA Representations for Breathing Activity and Pose Recognition
2026-10-11 20:13:12Yunxiang Luo, Constantino \'Alvarez Casado, Xiaoting Wu, Nhi Nguyen, Le Nguyen, Manuel Lage Ca\~nellas, Miguel Bordallo L\'opezAbstract
Predictive video representations do not by themselves specify how a multimodal system should handle missing sensors. We transfer frozen V-JEPA2 features to a set of heterogeneous sensors comprised by RGB video, depth video, and radar time series. A shared fusion model uses modality queries, fixed sensor slots, and explicit availability to classify breathing activity and pose from all seven non-empty sensor subsets. The contribution is a controlled evaluation of subset supervision, pooling capacity, and representation transfer on 39 OMuSense-23 subjects with five subject-group folds and three seeds. With matched downstream parameter counts, the final model reaches recording-level activity macro-F1 of $75.23%\pm0.60$ averaged across seven subsets. Supervising all subsets in each batch improves the matched query-pooling control by 1.923 percentage points (conditional 95% subject-bootstrap interval [0.647, 3.209]), while query pooling shows no clear advantage over matched mean pooling under balanced supervision. Radar probes support transfer beyond pooled wavelet pixels, 64-token inference approximately preserves mean activity performance, and the tested Consensus-JEPA loss adds no measured benefit against its exact control.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15891
PDF
-
Hyperbolic Time Series Forecasting with Learnable Decomposition and Manifold Dynamics
2026-10-11 16:40:49Sarang Rajendra Patil, Vishal Fenn, Mengjia XuAbstract
Multiscale structure is central to time series forecasting: temporal signals contain slowly varying trends, intermediate seasonal patterns, and high-frequency residuals. Traditional forecasters model this multiscale structure in Euclidean space, without representing the ordering it induces among components. We identify that cascaded decomposition orders components by their characteristic frequencies, forming a natural frequency hierarchy. This hierarchy aligns with the exponential volume growth of hyperbolic space, which provides increasing representational capacity with radius and naturally accommodates nested hierarchies. We propose HyperForecast, the first long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) framework operating in hyperbolic space. HyperForecast embeds decomposed temporal segments on the Poincaré ball where radial distance captures this nested structure, from low-frequency components near the origin to high-frequency components near the boundary. We model geodesic velocity through two manifold-dynamics variants: (a) autoregressive forecasting via Poincaré residual dynamics, and (b) non-autoregressive forecasting that predicts all future segments in parallel. HyperForecast consistently outperforms existing and state-of-the-art baselines on 9 of 11 long-term forecasting benchmarks, achieving up to 58% lower mean squared error at long horizons. Further analysis reveals that the learned radial embeddings recover the frequency hierarchy and that hyperbolic geometry contributes substantially to forecasting performance.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15760
PDF
-
CESNET-TimeSeries26: A Multi-Year Network Traffic Time Series Dataset for Annual Seasonality, Concept Drift, and Long-Term Anomaly Detection
2026-10-10 10:49:09Josef Koumar, Karel Hynek, Kamil Jerabek, Pavel SiskaAbstract
Forecast-based models are fundamental to network traffic management and anomaly detection. However, it is essential to evaluate these forecasting models over extended periods of time in order to assess their adaptability to unexpected phenomena and shifts in underlying patterns. This kind of long-term evaluation requires multi-year data to account for yearly seasonality and behavioral drift. Existing public datasets are too short to support such long-horizon forecasting tasks. We introduce CESNET-TimeSeries26, comprising 995 days of continuous traffic time series from the CESNET3 network, together with a single subnet spanning approximately 4.5 years. The dataset captures 278,466 IP addresses, 285 institutions, and 566 institutional subnets at three aggregation intervals. The dataset provides a definitive longitudinal benchmark for evaluating forecasting models in both operational management and security monitoring. We demonstrate that annual seasonality is the dominant periodic component. Moreover, we show that a forecasting model can exploit the annual component only when its training window covers at least one complete annual cycle, which no sub-year dataset provides.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14799
PDF
-
ECGWmark: Deep Watermarking for Electrocardiogram Signals
2026-10-09 10:32:03Kuan-Yu Chen, Kuan-Chen Wang, Yu Tsao, Jian-Jiun DingAbstract
Secure transmission of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals remains a major challenge in telecardiology. While traditional mathematical watermarking can embed patient metadata directly into ECG signals, it is highly fragile against temporal desynchronization such as circular phase shifts. In contrast, existing deep watermarking approaches for temporal signals, such as audio, typically rely on lossy quantization, which compromises the high-frequency micro-morphological details critical for clinical diagnosis. To bridge this gap, we propose ECGWmark, a fully convolutional and quantization-free deep watermarking framework for medical time-series. ECGWmark operates in a continuous, full-resolution latent space and utilizes a localized frame-level mechanism to improve the robustness to severe desynchronization. Crucially, we introduce a differentiable Physiological Loss guided by a clinical classifier to preserve diagnostic semantics. Experiments on the benchmark MIT-BIH database show that ECGWmark maintains channel-bit extraction accuracy above 90% under the evaluated circular temporal shifts. Furthermore, under a rigorous inter-patient diagnostic evaluation, Class-V sensitivity changes from 71.97% to 76.50%, whereas Macro-F1 changes from 35.25% to 34.71% and Class-S sensitivity from 8.89% to 1.39%; these results indicate mixed class-level effects.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13357
PDF
-
KITE: A Knowledge-Injected Temporal Encoder for Time-Series Event Forecasting
2026-10-08 21:35:42Jonas Petersen, Pratik Jawahar, Riccardo Maggioni, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Matteo Cozzi, Marek Gajewski, Federico Martelli, Camilla Mazzoleni, Philipp Christian PetersenAbstract
Forecasting rare, high-cost events in multivariate time-series systems is hard because their precursors are seldom observed, so a purely data-driven model has little to learn from. The engineers who run these systems, however, hold knowledge that precedes such events, information absent from the scarce labels. We call this a semantic prior and inject it into a self-supervised event forecaster through two switchable mechanisms, a covariate mechanism and an attention-bias mechanism, each the identity at its null, so one architecture serves every prior type with no per-dataset architecture search. A prior helps when it supplies information the observed window does not already contain: in a short context an informative prior beats no prior in-domain (pooled h-AUROC over the no-prior baseline: a periodicity clock +14%, p<0.001; a conservation residual +47% at a 0.25 label fraction), and a working prior transfers out-of-domain (+53%), substituting for feature transfer, while priors the window already recovers stay inert and the attention-bias mechanism shows no measurable gain. KITE is a switchable, attributable route to contextual conditioning, and a substrate for scaling toward cross-domain, pretrained time-series foundation world models that carry their governing structure explicitly.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12738
PDF
-
Machine Learning and Time-Series Foundation Models for Day-Ahead Electricity Forecasting in a University Building
2026-10-08 19:00:09Amey Vasulkar, Samuel Kernan Freire, Arie-Willem de Leeuw, Tadeo-Baldiri Salcedo-RaholaAbstract
Day-ahead electricity forecasts can help building operators schedule heating, ventilation, and other services around anticipated demand. Choosing a forecasting model also requires balancing accuracy with its forecast-time inputs, local training, and computational requirements. We benchmark statistical, machine-learning, recurrent neural-network, and pretrained TimesFM models for a university building. We use chronological validation and evaluate all configurations on the same 57 test days, comparing accuracy across workdays, weekends, and holidays alongside local fitting and forecasting time. Weather covariates use retrospective observations. TimesFM 3.0 with covariates achieves the lowest overall errors, reducing mean absolute error by approximately 43\% relative to weekly seasonal-naive forecasting. XGBoost remains competitive, although paired daily comparisons do not establish a clear mean-absolute-error advantage for TimesFM. TimesFM also performs strongly using only past electricity consumption. Adding covariates improves its holiday forecasts but slightly worsens workday and weekend forecasts, leaving overall mean absolute error almost unchanged. TimesFM requires no building-specific weight training, while XGBoost offers rapid local fitting and inference. The evaluated LSTM takes longer to fit without outperforming either approach. An exploratory historical evaluation reveals seasonal variation, while a separate weather-source comparison produces only small changes in the selected TimesFM configuration's accuracy. These results support pretrained TimesFM as a strong initial forecasting baseline for this building, with XGBoost as a competitive locally fitted alternative. Covariates are particularly useful when improved holiday forecasts justify the additional input preparation.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12638
PDF
-
AdaCast: Conditional Parameter Generation for Adaptive Time Series Forecasting
2026-10-08 16:21:19Darahaas Nallagatla, Darryl Cherian Jacob, Pan HeAbstract
Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong forecasting performance across domains. However, most adaptation methods remain static. Existing all-in-one methods learn a single set of dataset-level parameter updates and apply the same adapted model to every input. As a result, they cannot adapt the model parameters to the temporal patterns, seasonality and dynamics of each input time series. This limits their ability to produce forecasts that are tailored to heterogeneous inputs. To address this limitation, we propose AdaCast, a conditional parameter generation framework for time-series forecasting. AdaCast uses a generator to produce input-specific low-rank parameter updates for a frozen pretrained TSFM. These updates adapt the model to each input during both training and inference. Across six public benchmarks, AdaCast consistently outperforms static adaptation baseline in in-domain forecasting and improves zero-shot generalization to held-out datasets across domains. These results demonstrate that conditional parameter generation provides an effective approach for adaptive forecasting.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12240
PDF
-
Revisiting Identity and Spectra Dispersion in Media-Bridged Time Series Forecasting: Linking Multivariate Signals and Narrative Flows
2026-10-08 13:20:49Jierui Lei, Wenjian Zhang, Qingyi Yang, Yuyang Hong, Fangzheng Chen, Zhengbo Zhang, Haina Tang, Shiming XiangAbstract
Media-bridged time series forecasting is expanding to encompass traditional "multivariate" and emerging "multimodal" (e.g., through textual assistance). Existing Time Series Forecasting (TSF) models still rely on paradigm-specific relation, fusion, and temporal modules, hindering a common forecasting backbone across numerical and pre-aligned narrative-flow settings. To explore this, we propose the Multimedia Identity-Aware Prism Network (MIDAPN), a unified spatiotemporal forecasting backbone based on media-general graph adaptation and automatic temporal learning: (1) Following media pre-alignment, our Multimedia Identity-Aware Graph (MIDAG) revisits identity through static essence, dynamic behavior, and latent commonality, inducing affinities that extend variable-specific dependencies across media. Contextual Identity Modulation (CIM) further refines discriminative aggregation. (2) We develop Spectral Prism Convolution (SPConv) to automatically perform hierarchical temporal analysis, balancing coarse trends and fine-grained details. Meanwhile, its Adaptive Search Guidance configures a scale-efficient architecture for temporal-dimension reconstruction. These decoupled yet synergistic components jointly address media identity disentanglement and temporal-scale mismatch. Comprehensive evaluations involving 16 SOTA TSF models across 13 "multivariate" and 12 "multimodal" datasets, alongside targeted long-context comparisons against 14 time series foundation models and fused pretrained language models, demonstrate MIDAPN's consistent superiority and broad shared backbone compatibility. The code is available at \href{this https URL}{this https URL}.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11924
PDF
-
Timer-M1: A Multivariate Time Series Foundation Model via Learning Primitives
2026-10-08 11:28:56Haoran Zhang, Haixuan Liu, Xingjian Su, Yong Liu, Zhi Chen, Yuxuan Wang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng LongAbstract
We introduce Timer-M1, a pretrained multivariate time series foundation model that learns with primitives for zero-shot forecasting. Across domains, time series share elementary temporal and relational patterns, termed primitives, yet differ in how these primitives manifest and evolve across different contexts. Despite progress in zero-shot and task-general forecasting, existing foundation models may still struggle to generalize to complex real-world scenarios. To this end, we develop a primitive-based data synthesis and pretraining pipeline. The synthesis pipeline generates series with temporal primitives shared across domains and then assembles real and generated series into multivariate samples using relational primitives. Afterwards, samples are organized into episodes by assigning distinct channel roles as target variates, past-only covariates, and known-future covariates, ensuring that the model is optimized on predictable variates using available exogenous information. Technically, Timer-M1 further adapts gated two-dimensional Transformer blocks that dynamically allocate cross-variate attention across layers. Across three large-scale forecasting benchmarks, Timer-M1 ranks first on both FEV and TIME and second on GIFT-Eval among most recent time series foundation models. These results support effective primitive-based pretraining as a route to robust general forecasting technique across domains and task settings.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11734
PDF
-
Sera: Semantic Representation Aggregation for Reliable and Interpretable Battery Health Forecasting
2026-10-08 09:25:01Jiawei Li, Fang Liu, Wei Zhang, Zuming Liu, Man-Fai Ng, Zhi Wei SehAbstract
Battery state of health (SoH) forecasting is important for battery management, but remains challenging due to nonlinear degradation and heterogeneity across batteries. Existing data-driven approaches primarily use temporal models to learn from numerical battery time series, and higher-level degradation characteristics are often not explicitly represented. These characteristics, however, can provide degradation guidance to support reliable forecasting and make the influence of degradation more interpretable. In this paper, we propose \textsc{Sera}, a \underline{se}mantic \underline{r}epresentation \underline{a}ggregation framework that complements temporal modelling with degradation semantics. Guided by battery domain expertise, \textsc{Sera} extracts degradation semantics from time series and constructs two complementary representations using rule-based knowledge and LLM-based interpretation. The representations are independently encoded and integrated with the representation learned by temporal models through gated aggregations. Experiments on the mainstream benchmark across multiple prediction horizons and different temporal models show that \textsc{Sera} consistently improves forecasting performance, achieving up to a 37.3\% reduction in prediction error over the temporal baseline and enhanced generalizability. Counterfactual analysis examines how forecasts respond to changes in degradation semantics to assess interpretability. The results show that prediction responses are consistent with the meanings of key degradation descriptors across tested horizons. Together, these findings demonstrate that structured degradation semantics and effective aggregation can improve forecasting accuracy and support reliable and interpretable battery health forecasting for advanced battery management.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11567
PDF
