Time_Series
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READ-Bench: Benchmarking Historical Instance Retrieval for Time-Series Diagnosis
2026-10-08 04:57:53Gerardo Pastrana, Haojun Li, Dhruv Mehta, Anoushka Vyas, Sina Khoshfetrat Pakazad, Henrik Ohlsson, John PaparrizosAbstract
Time-series diagnostic systems rarely rely on retrieving relevant historical cases, and when they do, retrieval is evaluated only indirectly through downstream prediction. We introduce READ-Bench, a benchmark for historical-case retrieval across 12 diagnostic datasets, centered on multivariate time series, that defines relevance by shared fault or event type rather than signal shape, so visually different traces of the same fault count as relevant while similar-looking traces of different faults do not. Treating retrieval as a base retriever followed by a reranker, we evaluate classical distances, symbolic retrievers, self-supervised and foundation-model embedders, and their fusion, plus label-aware and language-model rerankers, under one protocol that varies supervision, pollution, and corpus scale with significance testing. Under a common channel-independent interface, pretrained representations offer no statistically detectable advantage over strong classical and symbolic baselines for search alone. The decisive factor is a small amount of resolved-case supervision at reranking, namely a Gaussian-process reranker that propagates a few neighbor labels in embedding space, which helps far more than more sophisticated representations or language-model reasoning and holds under pollution and at full corpus scale. Guided by these findings, we fuse a normal-residual-scored embedder with a dynamic time warping leg via reciprocal-rank fusion, then rerank with the Gaussian-process reranker, improving NDCG@10 over its own search stage on all 12 datasets, by +0.11 from reranking and +0.16 over the strongest single base retriever.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.32123
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AliO: Output Alignment Matters in Long-Term Time Series Forecasing
2026-10-08 04:12:35Kwangryeol Park, Jaeho Kim, Seulki LeeAbstract
Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks, which leverage the current data sequence as input to predict the future sequence, have become increasingly crucial in real-world applications such as weather forecasting and planning of electricity consumption. However, state-of-the-art LTSF models often fail to achieve prediction output alignment for the same timestamps across lagged input sequences. Instead, these models exhibit low output alignment, resulting in fluctuation in prediction outputs for the same timestamps, undermining the model's reliability. To address this, we propose AliO (Align Outputs), a novel approach designed to improve the output alignment of LTSF models by reducing the discrepancies between prediction outputs for the same timestamps in both the time and frequency domains. To measure output alignment, we introduce a new metric, TAM (Time Alignment Metric), which quantifies the alignment between prediction outputs, whereas existing metrics such as MSE only capture the distance between prediction outputs and ground truths. Experimental results show that AliO effectively improves the output alignment, i.e., up to 58.2% in TAM, while maintaining or enhancing the forecasting performance (up to 27.5%). This improved output alignment increases the reliability of the LTSF models, making them more applicable in real-world scenarios.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11213
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Lapras: Latent Reasoning for Time Series Language Models
2026-10-08 02:33:37Yuliang Chen, Yu Yvonne Wu, Patrick Langer, Arvind Pillai, Sudarshan Regmi, Martin Maritsch, Juncheng Liu, Robert Jakob, Thomas Kaar, Tess Z. Griffin, Lisa Marsch, Michael V. Heinz, Nicholas C. Jacobson, Andrew CampbellAbstract
Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) offer a promising path toward time series understanding by reasoning over temporal signals and producing natural language answers and explanations. A common approach is Chain-of-Thought (CoT), which generates step-by-step rationales linking relevant signal patterns to final answers. Although these models learn from reference CoT traces during post-training, generating faithful descriptions of input time series at inference remains challenging. Expressing high-dimensional, continuous temporal representations in discrete language tokens may cause the model to neglect task-relevant patterns or describe them inaccurately. Because later reasoning steps build on these descriptions, early errors propagate, leading to incorrect answers with plausible explanations that are inconsistent with the input signal. We propose Lapras (Latent Post-trained Reasoning Across Series), a post-training framework that equips TSLMs with latent reasoning. A model trained with Lapras reasons through a sequence of continuous thoughts in the joint time series-language space, producing text only for the final answer. It learns this through teacher-student self-distillation, where a teacher trained on CoT reference traces reasons explicitly through text. The student aligns its hidden states with the teacher's at the answer stage, transferring the teacher's reasoning ability into its latent computation. We evaluate Lapras across four TSLM backbones on five time series question answering benchmarks. Lapras improves average F1 by up to 10.79% over explicit CoT while generating 23.9x fewer tokens. Lapras's continuous thoughts can also be decoded into readable reasoning traces via standard language decoding, preserving textual explanations. Together, these results highlight Lapras as a promising post-training paradigm for efficient, effective, and interpretable TSLM reasoning.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11111
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From Shared Demand Patterns to Local Uncertainty: Probabilistic Load Forecasting by Mixing Compact Adaptations
2026-10-06 15:27:43Haoran Li, Zhe Cheng, Yang WengAbstract
Probabilistic load forecasting has been widely studied for power-system operation and planning, but customer- and transformer-level forecasting introduces a distinct scalability challenge. At these levels, load uncertainty is strongly affected by customer behavior, weather, and mixed load composition, making it difficult for a single shared model to capture heterogeneous patterns. Using separate probabilistic models can improve local accuracy, but becomes costly to train, store, update, and validate at scale. To address this challenge, we develop a scalable customer-aware forecasting framework that learns common demand behavior through a shared model while adapting only a compact subset of parameters. Rather than using an independent model for each load or assigning each load to a specialized model, the proposed design learns a small bank of low-dimensional adaptation components and allows each load to combine them according to its forecasting characteristics. This preserves shared knowledge across customers while providing sufficient flexibility for heterogeneous and mixed load compositions. Experiments on 590 load profiles from the SMART-DS dataset show consistent improvements in deterministic accuracy and probabilistic quality over statistical, neural-network, Transformer-based, and pretrained time-series baselines, while retaining low storage and inference costs.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08538
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Explainable Failure Prediction and Prevention in Maritime
2026-10-06 13:51:58Dionisis Kalogeropoulos, Georgia Sovatzidi, Panagiotis G. Kalozoumis, Dimitris K. IakovidisAbstract
Maritime systems operate in highly dynamic environments where unexpected equipment failures can compromise safety, reliability, and operational efficiency. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, digital twins, and predictive maintenance enable proactive failure prediction and prevention. However, ensuring trustworthy and explainable decision-making remains a major challenge in safety-critical maritime applications. This chapter reviews key AI technologies required for explainable failure prediction and prevention in maritime systems and presents a conceptual architecture capable of supporting autonomous or human-in-the-loop corrective actions. This architecture integrates data acquisition, time-series forecasting, anomaly detection, risk assessment, decision-making, and explainable AI into a closed-loop framework. With reference to the architectural components, a review and discussion of relevant maritime studies is performed, outlining their methods, advantages, and limitations. Furthermore, it highlights current challenges, including uncertainty and robustness, model generalization, explainability, limited availability of maritime datasets, and operational deployment, and identifies future research directions toward trustworthy AI-assisted maritime decision-making.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08363
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Scale-Invariant Training for Time Series Foundation Models
2026-10-05 19:56:49Ignacy Stepka, Willa Potosnak, Kin G. Olivares, Artur DubrawskiAbstract
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are trained on large collections of time series datasets that span various morphologies and domains. This setting exposes models to series whose scales -- typical magnitudes of their values -- can differ substantially. Affine scaling methods such as Reversible Instance Normalization (ReVIN) scale model inputs and reverse the transform before computing the loss. We show that this inversion multiplies each series' gradient by $b^p$ relative to loss on scaled targets, where $b$ is the scaling denominator (e.g., standard deviation) and $p$ is the loss degree. We call this scale-contaminated training (ScaleCon), because the scale of each series consequently becomes an importance weight, causing high-scale series to dominate training. For any scale-equivariant scaler and residual loss that is homogeneous of degree $p$, including MSE, MAE, and Quantile Loss, we prove that computing loss on scaled targets makes every mini-batch gradient and, consequently, the full optimization trajectory invariant to arbitrary independent rescaling of the training series, yielding scale-invariant training (ScaleIn). Notably, existing TSFMs use both objectives, with neither consistent reporting nor a common convention on how to compute training loss. We isolate the convergence disparity induced by ScaleCon and its correction under ScaleIn in controlled studies on synthetic and real data. In pretraining across four TSFM architectures, ScaleIn lowers MASE in all 24 architecture-benchmark comparisons, with average reductions across TSFMs of 18.8% on GIFT-Eval and 21.9% on the M-competitions. The gains extend to supervised neural forecasting, where it lowers MASE in 16 of 20 matched settings. Most existing time series forecasting pipelines can adopt ScaleIn with a one-line code change.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07324
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MASCIT: A Mask-Aware State Space Classifier for Naturally Irregular Time Series
2026-10-02 11:58:52Yoo-Min Jung, Hyeon-Gi Kim, Jonghun ParkAbstract
Naturally irregular time series combine asynchronous observations, missing values, unequal lengths, and nonuniform sampling, while dense adapters can discard temporal structure. We propose a mask-aware state space classifier for irregular time series (MASCIT), which supplies observation masks to the encoder and excludes invalid steps from gated temporal aggregation. Across 34 irregular time series datasets, MASCIT yielded the strongest aggregate point estimate and was the only evaluated neural model with three-seed results on every dataset. MASCIT retained the lowest point rank across six overlapping irregularity indicators, while factorial ablations favored partial over full selectivity. These results support selective state space models as effective, executable backbones for naturally irregular time series classification.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34409
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Trading Strategy Optimization via Textual Gradient
2026-10-02 10:48:35Chaoqun Yang, Qian Wang, Fengbin Zhu, Xinyu Lin, Bingsheng He, Roger Zimmermann, Tat-Seng ChuaAbstract
Quantitative trading strategy design aims to discover trading programs from historical data that remain effective in future markets, which can be viewed as a black-box program optimization problem. LLM-based textual gradients offer a promising approach by providing explicit optimization directions for iterative strategy refinement. However, directly applying textual gradients faces two challenges: (1) optimization is myopic, underutilizing experience from previous evaluations; and (2) aggregate backtest feedback overlooks temporal robustness, potentially favoring strategies that perform well only in specific market periods. To address these challenges, we propose TradeGrad, an experience-guided textual-gradient framework for robust trading strategy optimization. TradeGrad leverages accumulated optimization experience to estimate textual gradients and employs multi-scale revisions for both strategy exploration and refinement. It further introduces the Cross-Period Robust Objective (CPRO), which emphasizes performance in unfavorable historical periods to promote temporal robustness. Experiments on cross-sectional and time-series strategy design in Chinese A-share and U.S. equity markets show that TradeGrad achieves the best in-sample and out-of-sample performance across all four settings. Notably, its Chinese cross-sectional strategy achieves 27.99% annualized return, 12.19% maximum drawdown, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.63, approximately 68% higher than the CSI 300 benchmark. Further analyses validate the proposed components and show consistent improvements in both in-sample and out-of-sample performance throughout optimization. The code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03128
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Label-Efficient Time Series Classification at Scale: A Dual-Stream OSSE-LSTM with Counterfactual Attribution
2026-10-02 02:40:16Nguyen Ho, Bach Tung Tran, Trung Ky Nguyen, Zhenchang Xia, Bolong Zheng, Long Van HoAbstract
Time series are produced continuously at enormous scale by industrial equipment, wearables, power grids, and clinical monitors, yet annotation remains manual, expensive, and expert-dependent. The binding constraint in large-scale time series analytics is therefore not data volume but label volume, and the question facing a practitioner is concrete: how many examples per class must be labeled before a classifier becomes usable? We study this question directly, in a regime where the label space is fixed and known in advance and the decision rule must be constructed from only K labeled examples per class. We propose Dual-Stream OSSE-LSTM, an episodic metric-learning framework that pairs an Omni-Scale CNN with Squeeze-and-Excitation recalibration, for multi-scale motif extraction without per-dataset kernel tuning, with a Bidirectional LSTM for global temporal context. The two streams are independently normalized and fused into a prototype-oriented embedding. Because decisions taken from a few labels must also be explainable, we introduce Counterfactual Integrated Gradients (C-IG), which attributes the prototype margin between target and opposing classes rather than an isolated classifier logit, and reuses the resulting maps as soft masks for test-time prototype refinement without updating the encoder. On 19 univariate UCR datasets, OSSE-LSTM attains the highest average accuracy and per-dataset win count at every support size, and its accuracy remains within a 0.36-point band (96.36-96.72%) across that range. Its weakest configuration still exceeding the best result any compared baseline achieves at any K (93.99%).
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02704
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Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks Need Scenario-Grounded Stress Testing
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Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02608
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IGNITE Tokamak World Model Architecture
2026-10-01 21:37:44Peter Steiner, Azarakhsh Jalalvand, Nathaniel Chen, Kouroche Bouchiat, Ricardo Shousha, SangKyeun Kim, Egemen KolemenAbstract
We introduce IGNITE, a generative world foundation model for fusion plasma behavior simulation trained in a self-supervised manner from over a decade of unlabeled experimental data at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility. The core of IGNITE is a dynamics model that can simulate DIII-D discharges from a given set of actuator trajectories. These trajectories can be supplied or generated on-the-fly from a textual prompt or from desired experimental outcomes. The model architecture consists of several spatio-temporal tokenizers that embed the different input modalities, including time-series like spatio-temporal measurement data, image sequences, and high-resolution spectrograms, each of which collected at vastly different time scales. The backbone is composed of an auto-regressive dynamics model that has the capacity to predict entire DIII-D discharges given initial latent plasma states and actuator trajectories over a theoretical infinite horizon. IGNITE paves the way towards efficient AI-driven experimental planning and world modeling for nuclear fusion.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02515
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On the Divergence of Accuracy and Mechanism Consistency in Time Series World Models
2026-10-01 15:10:09Haochen Zhang, Jiaheng Guo, Zhen Xu, Zachary Plotkin, Nicholas Konz, Zhen Tan, Tianlong ChenAbstract
A time series world model (TSWM) predicts a controlled system's state from its observed history and planned actions and exogenous inputs. Current approaches build forecasters with actions as covariates, trained and evaluated on prediction error under the executed plan. Yet world models compare unexecuted plans, but their responses to changed plans remain untested. We ask which design choices matter and whether accurate forecasters respond to changed plans as real systems do. We address both with a formalization and benchmark. The formalization separates state, actions and exogenous inputs, distinguishes continuous, mode and event actions, and introduces mechanism consistency, a metric built on declared action-state relations with known directions, such as a vasopressor raising blood pressure: it checks whether shifting an action moves the forecast in the declared direction. The benchmark consolidates eight public datasets with real actions from engineered infrastructure and clinical care, varying prediction space, plan fusion and plan encoding across seven backbones and five seeds. First, a frozen latent prediction space lowers MAE by 9.9% over observation space and gated output fusion lowers it by 12.7% over input concatenation on average, with both improving all eight datasets; temporal plan encoding changes average MAE by at most 2.2%. Second, prediction error and mechanism consistency diverge: the lowest-error configuration is at or below chance in consistency on four of five datasets with declared mechanisms, and no design choice avoids this. Finally, directional supervision, a loss penalizing the wrong-signed part of the response to a shifted action, significantly raises consistency on penalized mechanisms with no change in MAE. Together they give TSWMs a recipe: a frozen latent space and output-side fusion for accuracy, and a training objective for mechanism consistency.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01842
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LineupRL: Verifiable Reinforcement Learning for Time Series Captioning via Caption-to-Series Identification
2026-10-01 14:43:21Haochen Zhang, Laura Yao, Zachary Plotkin, Gengwei Zhang, Tianlong ChenAbstract
Time series captioning is a fundamental step in time series understanding and can also serve as the bridge between signal and natural language. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) relies on a larger model's captions and cannot exceed their quality. Reinforcement learning (RL) can, but its rewards were designed for other modalities and other tasks, and they transfer poorly to open-ended generation in the time series domain. We address this by proposing LineupRL, a reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) pipeline whose reward is caption-to-series identification. The reward model is a frozen large language model (LLM) verifier that reads the generated caption and the candidate time series as raw values, never the chart, and must pick the described time series from multiple distractors. Matching is a far lighter demand on the verifier than writing questions or judging a caption, so an off-the-shelf LLM can supply the reward. Across two captioning benchmarks, and on forecasting and reconstruction where the predictor sees only the caption, LineupRL outperforms SFT and RL baselines on every metric. The 3B vision language model (VLM) trained by LineupRL also outperforms, at 1/24 of the parameters, the 72B VLM whose captions the SFT baseline is distilled from. Our case study shows that LineupRL resists reward hacking, and that the captioner it trains both traces the trend and names the values at key points.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01800
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ProtoFlow: Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
2026-10-01 08:48:18Shibo Feng, Wanjin Feng, Yang Qiu, Deheng Ye, Peilin Zhao, Chunyan MiaoAbstract
Generative modeling has shown strong promise for multivariate time mseries (MTS) forecasting, especially scale to high-dimensional settings. Diffusion-based methods achieve competitive performance but typically require many sampling steps at inference. VAE-based non-iterative forecasting frameworks have therefore emerged as an efficient alternative. Within this line of work, vector quantization (VQ) enables controllable latent space modeling by mapping multivariate series into compact discrete representations. Existing VQ-based forecasting methods, however, typically rely on autoregressive (AR) token generation, which suffers from exposure bias and training-inference mismatch. Flow matching provides an efficient non-autoregressive alternative for latent forecasting, but existing formulations usually initialize transport from a generic Gaussian prior. We instead observe that the trained VQ codebook already captures representative latent prototypes and can thus serve as a more informative prior for flow matching. Based on this insight, we propose ProtoFlow, a forecasting framework that combines vector-quantized autoencoding with Prototype-prior Flow matching. Our method first maps multivariate sequences into a discrete latent space, then constructs a structured prior from the learned codebook, and finally learns a DiT-based rectified flow to transport samples from this prior to future latent representations conditioned on historical observations. By replacing generic noise initialization with a learned prototype prior, ProtoFlow avoids the rollout mismatch of AR token prediction and promotes faster training convergence. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that it consistently achieves superior forecasting performance with efficient inference.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01320
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Have an LLM Write Your Anomaly Detector: Autonomous Discovery of Compact, Interpretable Detectors for Time Series
2026-10-01 07:26:09David BerghausAbstract
Time-series anomaly detection trades off predictive accuracy, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We use a large language model not as the detector but as the author of one: an autonomous research loop in which the model repeatedly edits a single short NumPy program under a leakage-free objective, keeping the best-scoring detector it finds. The loop discovers two compact detectors, one for univariate and one for multivariate series, that describe short windows by their local spectral features and compare them with the training-region distribution through a covariance-aware distance. On the TSB-AD benchmark these detectors lead the field across metrics, ahead of the strongest classical, deep, and foundation-model baselines including Time-RCD, yet they train no network and use no GPU, and the multivariate detector is faster than every similarly performing baseline. LLM-driven program search is thus a practical route to accurate, efficient, and transparent detectors.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01223
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Detect, Explain, Interpret: An End-to-End Benchmark for Time Series Anomaly Detection, Explainability and Interpretability
2026-10-01 06:44:55Roberto Stanzione, Jules Barbe, Magali Parrino, J\'er\'emie Fourmann, Paul BoniolAbstract
Time Series Anomaly Detection has received increasing attention, driven by the growing availability of complex time series data. This surge has led to the development of numerous detection methods, as well as a variety of benchmarks aimed at thoroughly evaluating their performance. However, most existing detectors remain largely agnostic to domain context, overlooking explainability and interpretability. One of the main reasons for this gap is that current benchmarks primarily focus on detection accuracy, and only few of them evaluate spatial explainability. Moreover, no benchmark currently provides sufficiently rich semantic annotations to support the generation of human-understandable interpretations of anomalies. To address these limitations, we introduce SHAD (Scality High-dimensional Anomaly Detection benchmark), a fully annotated benchmark composed of 215 multivariate, high-dimensional time series collected from real-world distributed cloud storage systems operated by Scality. The proposed dataset includes rich contextual information, covering three families of anomalies with varying degrees of severity. As further contribution, we provide a foundation for future work by evaluating baseline methods for Detection, Explainability, and Interpretability, covering all stages of a TSAD pipeline. For Detection, we benchmark a wide range of existing anomaly detectors, testing their effectiveness on the proposed real-world dataset. Then, we consider explainability by evaluating whether measuring the contribution of each dimension in the generated anomaly score can provide accurate anomaly attributions. Finally, for interpretability, we investigate the effectiveness of frozen LLM baselines in localizing and interpreting anomalies.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01168
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Generalist Representation, Specialist Detection: TS-Router for Time-Series Anomaly Detection
2026-10-01 03:15:18Tian Lan, Yifei Gao, Yimeng Lu, Xuming An, Meng Wang, Yue Pan, Wenjun He, Chenghao Liu, Chen ZhangAbstract
Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) is difficult to generalize across datasets because heterogeneous temporal dynamics imply different notions of normality and favor different detection criteria. While time-series foundation models provide transferable representations, coupling them with a fixed anomaly-scoring mechanism can overlook this variation. This motivates a different perspective on foundation-model-based TSAD: using foundation models to coordinate specialized anomaly criteria rather than directly imposing a universal one. Based on this view, we propose \textbf{TS-Router}, a generalist-representation, specialist-detection framework that estimates the relative competence of heterogeneous anomaly detectors from pretrained temporal representations and selects suitable specialists for each target series. To avoid relying on specialist-performance labels from real tasks, we derive soft competence supervision from specialists' relative performance on labeled simulated tasks. At deployment, routing requires no target anomaly labels, and only the selected specialists are fitted unsupervisedly on the target series. We bound Top-\(k\) set-competence regret under representation coverage and conditional competence stability. Across 16 real-world benchmarks and four complementary evaluation metrics, TS-Router achieves the best overall average rank. Controlled ablations with multiple frozen TSFM encoders further support the use of pretrained representations for competence estimation and adaptive specialist selection. The code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00978
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Lotus: Learning to Understand Time-series by Learning to Forecast
2026-10-01 01:44:55Van Dai Do, Huu Hiep Nguyen, Minh Hoang Nguyen, Manh Nguyen, Hung LeAbstract
Time-series language models typically align numerical signals with language using labels, captions, or question-answer pairs. Although such supervision encourages linguistic representations, it does not explicitly require them to preserve information about how the underlying time-series signal evolves. We introduce forecast grounding, a pretraining principle that requires language-aligned time-series representations to remain predictive of the future evolution before they are adapted to downstream tasks. We instantiate this principle in LOTUS, which divides each time-series channel into non-overlapping patches and maps them into the LLM embedding space. It then predicts the next patch from the LLM hidden states of the time-series tokens, encouraging the learned representation to retain temporal information. To capture both temporal changes and periodic patterns, we also propose a temporal-spectral patch representation that combines each raw time-series patch with its spectral representation before mapping it into the LLM embedding space. Across three language model backbones and six downstream evaluation datasets, LOTUS achieves the best average performance with minimal trainable parameters, reaching 59.91% accuracy and outperforming the strongest matched baseline by 3.36%. Our representation analyses further show that LOTUS uses the numerical input and preserves temporal structure in its learned patch representations. These results establish forecast grounding as a promising pretraining principle, enabling compact time-series language models to outperform models 25 to 50 times their size on TSRBench.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18877
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Grounding Time-Series Foundation Models in Digital Twin Topology for Predictive Maintenance
2026-09-30 16:24:35Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Berg\'esAbstract
Digital twins increasingly support downstream analytical tasks that depend on time-series data, motivating interest in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) as scalable backbones. However, TSFMs are primarily pretrained for temporal continuation and often underperform on unseen tasks such as regression, and systematic empirical comparisons against state-of-the-art dedicated models in digital twin contexts remain limited. This paper makes three contributions. First, we benchmark five well-known TSFMs with frozen backbones on remaining useful life (RUL) prediction using the C-MAPSS dataset, finding that multivariate architectures substantially outperform univariate ones, particularly under varying operating conditions. This raises a deeper question: when cross-channel dependencies can be modeled through pretrained weights, target-task adaptation, and digital twin-derived representations, how much does each contribute, and are they complementary? Second, we propose a topology-informed fusion approach in which topological constraints, derived from the asset structure the digital twin stores among its information models, explicitly shape cross-attention, so that fused representations respect the physical system's local connectivity rather than relying on unconstrained all-to-all interactions. Third, we conduct an ablation study across C-MAPSS subsets of varying operational complexity that isolates the three sources and their interactions. The sources prove complementary rather than redundant, and topology-constrained attention outperforms unconstrained fusion, though by a small margin, enabling a frozen TSFM informed by digital twin representations to remain competitive or in some cases exceed state-of-the-art performance on this regression task.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.40071
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Pseudo-Label-Triggered Retraining from Forecast Errors for Online Time Series Forecasting
2026-09-30 14:10:20Yeryeong Kwak, Yoo-Min Jung, Jonghun ParkAbstract
Real-world time series forecasting systems operate under non-stationary data streams, where forecasting performance may degrade over time. Although retraining can recover the performance, it incurs non-trivial computational and operational costs. Under limited deployment resources, the key challenge is therefore not only how to retrain but also when to retrain. While existing retraining policies often rely on indirect indicators such as drift alarms or model staleness, we instead use realized forecast errors as direct deployment feedback. In this paper, we propose PILOT (Pseudo-label-Informed Learned Online Trigger), an online retraining framework that learns when to retrain from forecast-error dynamics. Since ground-truth retraining labels are unavailable, PILOT constructs a pseudo-label from future increases in forecast error and trains a lightweight scorer to predict it from observed error states. At deployment, PILOT uses only completed forecast errors and serves as a plug-in module for arbitrary forecasting backbones without architectural modification. We evaluate PILOT under standard multivariate forecasting settings across eight benchmarks with three representative backbones---DLinear, iTransformer, and TimesNet. Across all three backbones, PILOT achieves state-of-the-art average-rank performance among retraining policies while maintaining a favorable performance--efficiency trade-off.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39789
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