Quantitative
-
Overlay_dx - Automating forecasting evaluation
2026-09-21 13:47:58Long Ngo, Mohammed Amine Chamli, Jonathan Rivalan, Thomas JaillonAbstract
Traditional evaluation metrics provides numerical values but often lack comprehensibility, hindering effective differentiation of model performances. Our work addresses this challenge by introducing overlay\_dx, a novel evaluation metric measuring the performance of time series prediction models. Overlay\_dx is a visual metric that represents the percentage of predictions falling within a confidence interval around actual values. Additionally, once evaluation results are plotted, overlay\_dx computes the area under the overlay curve, providing a quantitative measure of alignment between predicted and actual values across different thresholds and predictions. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach offers a unified evaluation framework that combines both visual and numerical assessments, enabling improved model comparison and providing valuable insights for further research and optimization efforts in time series prediction.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24586
PDF
-
MIRA: Real-Time Full-Duplex Human-Robot Interaction for Embodied Companions
2026-09-21 13:14:53Lijian Lin, Ye Zhu, Fan Zhang, Yunfei Liu, Baofeng Li, Xianwen Zeng, Jianan Wang, Yu LiAbstract
Real-time embodied companion interaction requires a robot to infer user intent from streaming speech, generate timely responses, and execute expressive, interruptible motions. Existing systems typically decouple dialogue orchestration from gesture synthesis, relying on offline motion generation from complete audio. This separation leaves open how a deployed robot can dynamically synchronize response content, prosodic timing, and physical safety under incremental inputs and uncertain turn boundaries. We present MIRA, a unified framework for full-duplex embodied companion interaction. Given streaming user speech, dialogue history, and vocal affect, MIRA predicts both the response text and an explicit embodiment cue. Discrete social behaviors (\eg listening, greeting) are mapped to validated robot trajectories, while open-ended speaking is paired with streaming, co-speech motion. This generative motion is governed by a predict-more-than-commit sliding window that provides temporal look-ahead for motion continuity while limiting physical commitment to a short, cancellable prefix. Crucially, we design CORTEX, a dual-timescale interaction policy that manages low-latency streaming and deliberative turn decisions, backed by a robot-side execution layer that enforces physical safety constraints at the control rate. We deploy MIRA on an Astribot S1 humanoid robot. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate competitive audio-motion alignment relative to state-of-the-art motion-generation baselines, while real-robot deployment measurements characterize streaming responsiveness and interruption handling.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24547
PDF
-
AgentSTAR: Agentic Shape Tracking and Reconstruction from Monocular Videos
2026-09-21 12:26:13Kirill Mazur, Nikita Karaev, Matthew Chang, Jitendra Malik, Nur Muhammad "Mahi'' ShafiullahAbstract
In this work, we present a method for shape reconstruction and tracking from video via agentic analysis-by-synthesis. Unlike prior methods which first estimate dense pixel correspondences and then recover object motion from them, our method infers a structured 3D object model, including its geometry and kinematic structure, and uses this model to optimise object track estimates over time. In our optimisation loop, a Vision-Language Model (VLM) agent iteratively refines shape or generalised pose through a render-and-compare loop, combining coarse visual reasoning with numerical pose optimisation for precise state estimation. This structured formulation enables our method to track through large motion, articulation, and severe occlusion without relying on pixel-matching objectives. Quantitatively, on ARCTIC, our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art 3D point-tracking baselines for articulated objects, and on HOT3D it outperforms all evaluated rigid-object tracking baselines.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24487
PDF
-
MIGA:Shared-Geometry Gaussian Representation with Implicit Amplitude Modeling for Accelerated 3D Multi-Echo MRI
2026-09-21 12:10:01Jingran Xu, Yuanyuan Liu, Yanjie ZhuAbstract
Three-dimensional multi-echo MRI provides rich anatomical and quantitative information, but repeated volumetric encoding prolongs acquisition and motivates k-space undersampling. Reconstructing undersampled multi-echo data requires exploiting shared anatomy while preserving echo-dependent signal variation; full-volume modeling also introduces substantial computational and memory demands. We propose MIGA, a scan-specific framework comprising shared anisotropic Gaussian geometry, a coordinate-conditioned multi-output amplitude network, and explicit echo-specific phase variables. The Gaussian geometry provides common spatial support across echoes, the implicit network models spatially structured amplitude variations, and the phase variables retain echo-specific complex signal information. All components are jointly optimized using only the acquired multi-coil k-space, requiring no fully sampled training data. Experiments showed that MIGA consistently outperformed the comparison methods across imaging tasks and acceleration factors, with larger improvements under stronger undersampling. MIGA also achieved a favorable quality-cost balance among the evaluated full-volume multi-echo methods. These results support the effectiveness of combining shared Gaussian geometry with implicit echo-dependent amplitude modeling for accelerated 3D multi-echo MRI reconstruction.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24468
PDF
-
Discovery of Interpretable Surrogates via Agentic AI: Application to Gravitational Waves
2026-09-20 23:37:29Tousif Islam, Digvijay Wadekar, Tejaswi Venumadhav, Matias Zaldarriaga, Ajit Kumar Mehta, Javier Roulet, Barak ZackayAbstract
Fast surrogate models for expensive simulations are now essential across the sciences, yet they typically operate as black boxes. We present \texttt{GWAgent}, a large language model (LLM)-based workflow that constructs interpretable analytic surrogates directly from simulation data. Surrogate modeling is well suited to agentic workflows because candidate models can be quantitatively validated against ground-truth simulations at each iteration. As a demonstration, we build a surrogate for gravitational waveforms from eccentric binary black hole mergers. We show that providing the agent with a physics-informed domain ansatz substantially improves output model accuracy. The resulting analytic surrogate attains a median Advanced LIGO mismatch of $6.9\times10^{-4}$ together with an $\sim 8.4\times$ speedup in waveform evaluation, surpassing both symbolic regression and conventional machine learning baselines. Beyond producing an accurate model, the workflow identifies compact physical structure from the learned representation. As an astrophysical application, we use \texttt{GWAgent} to analyze the eccentricity of GW200129 and infer $e_{20\mathrm{Hz}}=0.099^{+0.063}_{-0.044}$. These results show that validation-constrained agentic workflows can produce accurate, fast, and interpretable surrogates for scientific simulations and inference.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.11280
PDF
-
Error-Supervised Synthetic Learner Writing for Automated Essay Scoring
Abstract
Synthetic essays can help reduce dependence on human-written data in Automated Essay Scoring (AES). However, they often lack realistic errors, limiting their ability to represent authentic human writing, particularly when the target texts are intended to resemble those produced by language learners. In this study, we present a simple approach that introduces error supervision into synthetic essay generation. Specifically, we fine-tune an LLM generator on error-annotated texts of the kind commonly used in Grammatical Error Detection (GED). To assess the utility of the proposed approach, we fine-tune and evaluate AES scorers under three data conditions: authentic essays, synthetic essays generated conventionally, and synthetic essays generated using our proposed approach. The results show that in the larger-data settings, the proposed approach outperforms the conventional synthetic baseline in 11 out of 12 dataset-metric comparisons, with performance in some cases approaching that of models trained on authentic essays. Despite these gains, performance under extremely low-resource settings remains mixed, with advantages over the conventional baseline only becoming more apparent at 200 training essays, although not consistently across datasets. Qualitative and quantitative analyses further show that the proposed approach produces learner-like errors whose distributions broadly resemble those observed in authentic essays.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23573
PDF
-
Receding-Horizon Pushing with Composable Object-Centric Policies
2026-09-20 08:15:57Zhiyi Yuan, Tianrun Hu, Anxing Xiao, Yuhong Deng, David Hsu, Hanbo ZhangAbstract
Non-prehensile manipulation is practical for relocating large, heavy, or geometrically ungraspable objects. Yet, long-horizon pushing of arbitrarily-shaped 3D objects couples three problems: 1) where to push the object so as to approach the target pose, 2) whether each push is stable and reachable, 3) whether subsequent actions remain feasible. We present an object-centric pushing policy within a feedback-guided hierarchical framework. At the low level, a learning-based policy predicts contact actions from a pose- and scale-normalized point cloud, conditioned on a near single-step subgoal. A stability score is applied to evaluate the predicted contacts by a quasi-static sliding-versus-tipping analysis. At the high level, BIT$^*$ first searches for an object path, and the next several subgoals are checked by contact prediction and robot motion planning for future feasibility. Failed motion plans, as feedback, change the local path costs and trigger re-planning. During execution, only the first feasible action is executed. In simulation, we evaluate 22 objects in six different scenes, upon which we also conduct comprehensive ablation studies. Results demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines with a clear margin and can reliably achieve long-horizon object pushing tasks under different situations. We also report quantitative real-robot experiments with a Franka arm and qualitative demonstrations with a mobile manipulator for large and heavy objects, with directly zero-shot sim-to-real transfer.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23439
PDF
-
Co-occurrence Patterns of LoRA Adapters in Production Diffusion Model Inference Services
2026-09-20 03:16:26Tao Zhang, Bin Liao, Tao Zhou, Yanping LiuAbstract
Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a key technology for serving large-scale personalized large language models and diffusion models in the cloud. However, the co-occurrence patterns, resource contention relationships, and evolutionary regularities of adapters under production inference workloads have not been systematically or quantitatively studied. Based on GenTD26, Alibaba's production diffusion model inference dataset, this paper adopts a graph-theoretic framework to construct an adapter co-occurrence network and conducts a characterization from both static structure and dynamic evolution. Our main findings are as follows. (1) The co-occurrence network is extremely sparse, and adapter usage frequency follows a significant heavy-tailed distribution. (2) Introducing the first adapter incurs a 66.1% execution-latency overhead, with diminishing marginal costs afterwards. (3) Co-occurrence relationships are driven by base models: in 90.6% of multi-adapter requests, all adapters share the same dominant base model; 66.2% of significant co-occurrence edges connect same-model adapter pairs; and in 85.8% of multi-adapter requests, all adapter pairs form significant co-occurrence edges. (4) The adapter ecosystem exhibits a core-periphery bipolar structure, with a weekly Jaccard similarity of 0.696 at the model level and a churn rate of 54.5% for the top-10 hottest models within a 12-hour window. Based on these findings, we propose a preloading strategy built on top-k co-occurrence statistics; offline experiments show that it covers 81.0% of test-set co-occurrence pairs at k=3, and sensitivity analyses across frequency thresholds and time windows verify the robustness of the conclusions. These results provide a data-driven basis for cache preloading, adaptive scheduling, and GPU memory management in LoRA inference services.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23321
PDF
-
Blind Deconvolution of Binary and Pattern Images with Pixel Intensity Constraints and Sparse Gradient Prior
2026-09-20 00:58:57Qinghua Zhang, Xuesong Yang, Liangtian He, Liang-jian Deng, Jun LiuAbstract
Blind image deconvolution (BID) is a prominent research topic in the field of imaging sciences, given its significant practical applications. Most existing model-based BID methods focus on natural images, incorporating appropriate prior knowledge about both the underlying image and the blur kernel. However, for certain classes of images, such as barcodes, text, and patterns, pixels can only take very limited values, a specific prior that is often overlooked in the literature. In this article, we introduce a novel pixel intensity constraint to leverage this important information, improving recovery performance for these specialized image classes. Specifically, we propose a unified framework for blind binary and pattern image deconvolution that incorporates both the pixel intensity constraint and a gradient sparsity regularizer. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms many existing BID techniques, achieving superior results in terms of both visual quality and quantitative metrics.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23268
PDF
-
CTRL: Control-Based Time Series Forecasting with LLM-Guided Residual Learning
2026-09-20 00:10:06Minkyoung Kim, Daeun Ji, Yohan Lee, Beomsoo Kim, Beakcheol JangAbstract
Time series forecasting underpins critical decision-making across diverse domains. While large language models (LLMs) offer promising reasoning capabilities, existing LLM-based time series forecasting approaches either reduce them to numerical predictors that bypass their strengths, or allow direct forecast generation that destabilizes predictions in non-stationary settings. We introduce CTRL, a framework that decouples semantic reasoning from quantitative prediction. A frozen backbone generates base forecasts, while specialized LLM agents function as controllers that analyze backbone prediction errors through decomposed trend, seasonal, and irregular components, grounding reasoning in interpretable temporal structure. Each agent outputs compact control signals that a lightweight residual decoder translates into forecast corrections. CTRL incorporates label-free test-time adaptation that detects distribution shift from input statistics alone and readapts control signals with only 3-24 LLM calls via caching. CTRL is explicitly designed to improve robustness under non-stationary temporal dynamics and distribution shift, while remaining competitive on highly stationary time series where adaptive correction provides limited additional benefit.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23257
PDF
-
SatOV: Restoring Spatial Priors for Training-Free Open-Vocabulary Segmentation in Remote Sensing Imagery
2026-09-19 07:12:14Changhao Zhao, Linglin Zeng, Hai LiuAbstract
Open-vocabulary semantic segmentation (OVS) of remote sensing imagery is a challenging pixel-level task requiring strong generalization and adaptation to the spatial characteristics of remote sensing data. Although existing vision-language foundation models perform well in general domains, their image-level classification design weakens the spatial priors needed for high-resolution remote sensing segmentation: structural spatial relations are degraded during deep feature transformation, and fine-grained spatial details are lost during downsampling. To address these complementary deficiencies, we propose SatOV, a training-free framework for open-vocabulary remote sensing segmentation that restores spatial priors at two stages of the representation pipeline. Specifically, Residual QQ Attention (ResQQ) extracts Query-Key self-attention from an intermediate CLIP layer and fuses it with final-layer Query-Query attention via a residual combination, restoring structural spatial priors suppressed by the final-layer representation. Spatially Modulated Upsampling (SatUp) uses the original high-resolution RGB image as spatial guidance, combining spatial feature modulation with guided cross-attention to reconstruct pixel-level textures and boundaries. Extensive experiments on DOTA, UDD, LoveDA, and Vaihingen show that SatOV consistently improves training-free OVS and achieves competitive quantitative and qualitative results against state-of-the-art methods. These results validate the effectiveness of restoring spatial priors at both the representation and spatial-resolution stages for remote sensing open-vocabulary segmentation.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22834
PDF
-
The Role of Radiometric Features in Cross-Site Leaf-Wood Segmentation of LiDAR Point Clouds
2026-09-18 15:31:39Roman Kaharlytskyi, Derek T. Robinson, Roberto GuglielmiAbstract
Leaf-wood segmentation of individual trees from LiDAR point clouds is essential for quantitative structure models (QSMs) used in non-destructive biomass estimation. Existing segmentation methods typically exclude radiometric features (e.g., intensity, return number) to maximize cross-sensor compatibility. We challenge this design choice by evaluating cross-site and cross-platform generalization: training on the public Heidelberg dataset (terrestrial TLS, 1550nm) and testing on a novel dataset from Ontario, Canada (RPA-LS, 905nm). Results show that geometry-only methods - including state-of-the-art deep learning models trained on high-density LiDAR datasets - fail to generalize to the sparse, top-down geometry of aerial scans, achieving F1 scores <= 0.56. Incorporating radiometric features (intensity, return number, number of returns) improves F1 to 0.61, but more critically, increases wood recall by 119% from 0.16 to 0.35. Furthermore, geometry-only approaches often result in fragmented stem and branch components. We find that leveraging radiometric features preserves greater structural connectivity, resulting in more coherent architectures that are better suited for QSM reconstruction. We demonstrate that while geometric patterns are view-dependent and prone to overfitting scan patterns, radiometric features encode physical material properties that generalize across disparate sensors and environments.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.21903
PDF
-
XCalib Depth-Guided Geometric Optimization for Dense Thermal-Visible Video Registration
2026-09-18 13:39:00Aurelien Godet, Gabriel Jobert, Mauro Dalla MuraAbstract
Image registration is a vital preprocessing step in multimodal perception tasks, including image fusion, object detection, and semantic segmentation. In Advanced Driver- Assistance Systems (ADAS), spatial misalignment between visible (RGB) and infrared (IR) cameras -caused by non-coincident optical axes and field-of-view differences- introduces non-uniform parallax and visual ghosting. Classical keypoint-based methods are restricted to global homographies that fail under dynamic depth, while unconstrained dense flow algorithms lack structural regularization and suffer from temporal instability. In this paper, we propose XCalib, an unsupervised dense thermal-visible registration framework that bridges this gap. Rather than serving as an absolute metric calibration tool, XCalib leverages virtual pinhole camera parameterization strictly as a geometric constraint space. By optimizing effective relative pose and intrinsics alongside predicted monocular metric depth, XCalib restricts the search space of spatial displacements to physically valid projection geometries. Our key contributions are: (1) a novel registration paradigm that uses camera parameterization as an implicit regularizer for dense cross-modal warping; (2) Normalized Edges Correlation (NEC), a robust structural similarity metric tailored to cross- spectral alignment; and (3) extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations across public ADAS datasets, demonstrating superior temporal stability and alignment accuracy over unconstrained dense flow baselines.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.21770
PDF
-
Anatomically Faithful Artifact Suppression in SENSE Accelerated Brain MRI
2026-09-18 06:26:57Changjing Chai, Bin Huang, Libo Xu, Jian Zhou, Boyang Pan, Kristen W Yeom, Qiyong Gong, Nan-Jie GongAbstract
Background: Four-fold accelerated sensitivity encoding (SENSE4) can shorten brain MRI acquisition time but may amplify noise and result in residual aliasing artifacts after conventional reconstruction. Purpose: To evaluate whether an image-domain refinement framework can improve the quality of SENSE4 brain MRI while preserving anatomical information for quantitative measurements. Methods: In this prospective paired study, 80 participants underwent fully sampled and four-fold accelerated SENSE T1-weighted MRI. We developed an Anatomy-aware Residual Attention Network (ART-Net) to refine accelerated reconstructions through generalized self-attention and correlation-based residual artifact regularization. Participant-level splitting yielded training, validation, and independent test cohort (45/5/30 participants). The independent test cohort underwent quantitative, segmentation-based, and blinded radiologist assessments of image quality and anatomical preservation. Results: ART-Net demonstrated highly competitive reconstruction performance, achieving the highest peak signal-to-noise ratio (31.03 +/- 2.88 dB) and structural similarity index (0.963 +/- 0.022) among evaluated methods. It also demonstrated improved anatomical fidelity, with numerically highest Dice coefficients for medial temporal structures relevant to atrophy assessment (0.8824 +/- 0.0827) and whole-brain regions (0.8857 +/- 0.0885). Moreover, ART-Net improved gradient fidelity, regional contrast preservation, and radiologist-rated structural quality. Conclusion: ART-Net improved agreement between SENSE4 and fully sampled T1-weighted images in a single-center, held-out test cohort while maintaining segmentation-derived anatomical measurements. These findings suggest that ART-Net may support accelerated brain MRI by improving image fidelity and enabling reliable downstream anatomical analysis.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22390
PDF
-
PlantShade: Predicting Plant Shadows for Lighting-Aware Robotic Agricultural Operation
2026-09-17 20:28:03Longchao Da, Xiaoou Liu, Xingjian Li, Lirong Xiang, Hua WeiAbstract
Plant growth and agricultural production form the foundation of a country's sustainable development and directly impact human livelihoods. Recent advances in frontier artificial intelligence have enabled scientific agriculture with strong potential to improve crop productivity. In this paper, we identify the importance and inherent complexity of plant shade simulation, as shading is a critical factor influencing plant growth. To advance this field and promote broader societal benefits, we focus on two main contributions. First, we introduce a comprehensive plant growth and shade dataset covering four plant species, including soybean, tomato, sugarbeet, and strawberry. The dataset includes top-down viewpoints with a supplementary light along a circular trajectory, casting dynamic shadows across multiple growth stages and diverse observation complexities. Second, we propose generative shade simulation based on diffusion models, enabling realistic shade generation for unseen plants and supporting downstream robotic tasks such as perception, lighting control, and view planning. The model incorporates temporal conditioning to facilitate flexible shade simulation across different time stages. We conduct both quantitative and qualitative evaluations to assess model performance. This work provides a foundational study for plant-aware shade modeling and has meaningful implications for broader agricultural and robotic applications.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.21059
PDF
-
Ischemic Stroke Segmentation and Net Water Uptake Quantification on Multicenter Non-Contrast CT Using Supervised Target-Domain Adaptation
2026-09-17 12:44:00Linus Britt, Maximilian Nielsen, Susan Klapproth, Andre Kemmling, Michael H. Lev, Gabriel Broocks, Rene Werner, Thilo SentkerAbstract
Objectives: Quantitative assessment of infarct hypodensity on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT), including net water uptake (NWU), requires manual or semi-manual lesion delineation, often guided by CT perfusion or diffusion-weighted MRI, limiting clinical applicability. Automated segmentation on NCCT could enable efficient biomarker extraction such as NWU but remains challenging across heterogeneous multicenter data. This study aimed to develop and externally test a domain-aware deep learning framework for ischemic stroke segmentation on NCCT and assess its suitability for NWU quantification. Materials & Methods: In this retrospective multicenter study of 801 patients from four datasets, an nnU-Net-based model was trained on NCCT scans from the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf and the Acute Ischemic Stroke Dataset. To adapt to new domains, the model was fine-tuned on target-domain subsets from Boston (n=11) and ISLES (n=75), with evaluation on held-out cases not used for fine-tuning. Automated segmentations and NWU values were compared with expert references. Results: For lesions $\geq$ 30 mL, median Dice was 0.68 (Boston) and 0.56 (ISLES). Including smaller lesions, which predominated in ISLES, median Dice was 0.54 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.30-0.70) for acute lesion segmentation (Boston dataset) and 0.20 (IQR 0.03-0.41) for NCCT lesion segmentations when compared to post-treatment infarct (primary target of the ISLES challenge). Automated NWU mean absolute error was 1.37 percentage points (SD 1.61, Boston). Conclusion: Target-domain adaptation supported NCCT-only infarct segmentation across heterogeneous external cohorts, although performance varied across domains. The approach enabled low-error NWU quantification from baseline NCCT without advanced imaging, supporting further prospective clinical evaluation.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20151
PDF
-
G^2RA-NET: Graph-based Cross-Slice Relation Modeling with Attention Gating for Medical Image Segmentation
2026-09-17 11:48:52Shengye Wang, Zonglin Wu, Liang Fan, Yule Xue, Haozhe ZhaoAbstract
Medical image segmentation supports quantitative clinical analysis and computer-aided diagnosis. Recent methods for medical image segmentation have improved both local feature representation and volumetric context modeling. However, existing methods still strug- gle to efficiently model cross-slice relations in anisotropic volumet- ric images, limiting segmentation consistency and accuracy. This pa- per proposes G^2RA-Net, a medical image segmentation framework that combines graph-based cross-slice relation modeling with atten- tion gating. Graph-Based Slice Relationship Modeling (GSRM) cap- tures anatomical dependencies across consecutive slices by repre- senting each slice as a graph node and propagating semantic con- text through graph message passing. The Cross-Slice Attention Gate (CSAG) then selects relevant neighboring context and emphasizes target anatomical regions through attention-guided feature modula- tion. Experiments on brain MRI and abdominal CT datasets demon- strate that G^2RA-Net outperforms representative methods in seg- mentation accuracy and boundary quality. Ablation studies further validate the proposed design.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20088
PDF
-
Contagion on the Trading Floor: How Adversarial Signals Spread in Multi-Agent Trading Systems
2026-09-17 06:54:59Qi Rong Sua, Junhao Dong, Nguyen Duc Thai, Yuqing Wen, Cheston Tan, Yew-Soon OngAbstract
Multi-agent trading systems built on large language models (LLMs) are beginning to appear in quantitative finance, yet their robustness to adversarial inputs is largely unknown. We study the vulnerability of LLM trading stacks to black-box, input-only attacks that enter solely via admissible social-media feeds. We introduce the Generic Multi-Agent Trading System (GMATS), a framework that captures modern multiagent trading architectures and instantiate a class of black-box poisoning attackers that treat an LLM as a post generator and inject budget-constrained, plausibly benign social-media content into the analyst's evidence stream. We define contagion metrics that trace how adversarial content propagates through the stack, including belief-shift scores at analyst and coordinator layers and attack-clean deltas on standard backtest metrics. Experiments on a safe offline benchmark with historical market and social data show that even simple input-only attackers can materially degrade risk-return profiles, sharply reducing Sharpe ratios. At the same time, we find that suitably designed multi-agent topologies and coordinator prompts can dampen adversarial shocks and improve average robustness under identical poisoning budgets.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19789
PDF
-
The segmentation ceiling: why explicit left-ventricular masks do not improve learned ejection-fraction regression
2026-09-17 05:41:28Farshid Farhadi Khouzani, Paul La Plante, Bryar Mustafa Shareef, Laxmi GewaliAbstract
Accurate estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) from echocardiography is central to cardiovascular care, and deep learning enables automated EF prediction from echocardiographic video. Because EF is clinically derived from left-ventricular (LV) volumes, a widely held intuition is that explicit LV segmentation should improve prediction. We introduce a quantitative criterion, the segmentation ceiling, that makes this testable: from EF as a normalized difference of end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, we derive in closed form how per-frame segmentation area error propagates into EF error, and thus the accuracy a mask must reach before it can improve on direct regression. Using EchoNet-Dynamic, a UniFormer-S backbone, and the empirically measured within-patient error correlation, the criterion places the break-even near 10% per-frame area error, whereas a representative segmenter operates at roughly 14%, above the ceiling. Consistent with this, four strategies for injecting segmentation or area information (a predicted-mask channel, end-diastolic/end-systolic clip sampling, and per-bin and amplitude area-consistency objectives) fail to beat a raw-video baseline; ground-truth masks help only through label leakage. Input representation thus not being the limit, we identify generalization as the practical lever: weight averaging with strong augmentation attains a test R^2 of 0.806 (MAE 4.08) under a matched dense-clip protocol, comparable to an R(2+1)D baseline (0.811) while tightening the validation-to-test gap. Finally, a heteroscedastic beta-NLL formulation yields informative, well-calibrated per-prediction uncertainty, larger for clinically harder low-EF cases, where Monte-Carlo dropout does not. The segmentation ceiling gives a concrete design criterion for when mask-guided EF estimation is worthwhile, plus a simple, uncertainty-aware recipe for EF regression.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19730
PDF
-
ResNLS: An Improved Model for Stock Price Forecasting
2026-09-17 03:07:41Yuanzhe Jia, Ali Anaissi, Basem SuleimanAbstract
Stock prices forecasting has always been a challenging task. Although many research projects try to address the problem, few of them pay attention to the varying degrees of dependencies between stock prices. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid model that improves the prediction of stock prices by emphasizing the dependencies between adjacent stock prices. The proposed model, ResNLS, is mainly composed of two neural architectures, ResNet and LSTM. ResNet serves as a feature extractor to identify dependencies between stock prices, while LSTM analyzes the initial time series data with the combination of dependencies, which are considered as residuals. Our experiment reveals that when the closing price data for the previous 5 consecutive trading days is used as input, the performance of the model (ResNLS-5) is optimal compared to those with other inputs. Furthermore, ResNLS-5 demonstrates at least a 20% improvement over current state-of-the-art baselines. To verify whether ResNLS-5 can help clients effectively avoid risks and earn profits in the stock market, we construct a quantitative trading framework for back testing. The result shows that the trading strategy based on ResNLS-5 predictions can successfully mitigate losses during declining stock prices and generate profits in periods of rising stock prices.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.01020
PDF
