Quantitative
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FairLint-DL: An IDE-Native Tool for Fairness Debugging of Deep Learning Software
2026-09-14 20:37:44Archit Rathod, Saeid Tizpaz-NiariAbstract
Existing fairness analysis tools predominantly operate as post-training evaluation frameworks, requiring practitioners to complete the full model development lifecycle before assessing bias. We present FairLint-DL, a Visual Studio Code extension that implements a shift-left approach to fairness testing by enabling pre-training, IDE-native bias detection directly on tabular datasets. FairLint-DL trains a configurable deep neural network as a proxy model and applies information-theoretic Quantitative Individual Discrimination (QID) metrics. Grounded in Shannon and min-entropy, QID quantifies the causal influence of protected attributes on predictions. The system implements a two-phase gradient-guided search algorithm for discovering discriminatory instances, a causal debugging pipeline that localizes bias to specific network layers and neurons via sensitivity analysis, and dual explainability engines using SHAP and LIME for feature-level attribution. Evaluation on three tabular benchmarks (Adult Census Income, German Credit, and Bank Marketing) reveals fairness concerns that vary widely across datasets: on Adult, 96.0% of analyzed instances exhibit QID above the 0.1-bit significance threshold, with a mean QID of 0.619 bits and a disparate impact ratio of 0.581, violating the four-fifths legal rule. FairLint-DL produces these results within 12 seconds on cached models, demonstrating the feasibility of integrating fairness analysis into the developer workflow without significant overhead.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16321
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LLMs as Master Forgers: Generating Synthetic Time Series Data for Manufacturing
2026-09-14 18:01:29Mantek Singh, Jeshwanth Challagundla, Prateek Karnal, Gagan Ganapathy, Vineet Shah, Ridam AroraAbstract
This paper presents a novel framework leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate synthetic time series data for manufacturing processes. Motivated by the scarcity of labeled time-series data in real-world manufacturing settings, which hinders the development of robust machine learning models, we explore the potential of LLMs to learn complex temporal dependencies and generate realistic synthetic data. Our approach involves fine-tuning pre-trained LLMs on manufacturing process instructions and employing a Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) technique to enhance data diversity and realism. We evaluate our method against traditional time series modeling techniques like ARIMA and LSTMs, using quantitative metrics, PCA analysis, and downstream task performance (anomaly detection). Results demonstrate that our LLM-driven framework outperforms these baselines, generating high-quality synthetic time series data that effectively captures temporal dependencies and statistical properties of real manufacturing data, leading to improvements in downstream task performance.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16155
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BSC-Net: A Small-Branch-Sensitive Structural Continuity Network for Coronary Vessel Segmentation and Quantitative Angiographic Analysis
2026-09-14 11:32:28Wanxian Li, Jiaqian Qin, Qingyi Xian, Yazhi Li, Song Chen, Liman Li, Hao HeAbstract
Vessel segmentation in X-ray coronary angiography (XCA) is a fundamental step for quantitative coronary analysis and subsequent assessment of coronary artery disease. However, accurate vessel segmentation remains challenging because of imaging noise, complex bifurcations, and the overlap of vessels and background structures, which can lead to disrupted vascular connectivity and missed small branches. In this work, we propose BSC-Net, a ResNet-U-Net-based framework tailored to improve small-vessel representation and repair vascular structural continuity. BSC-Net enhances small-vessel representation through targeted sampling and improves vascular structural continuity by integrating long-range contextual modeling and Edge-Informed Loss (EIL). BSC-Net was validated on two public XCA datasets, demonstrating state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in coronary vessel segmentation with Dice and IoU scores of 77.8%/90.6% and 64.5%/83.0%, respectively. Furthermore, based on the obtained vessel segmentation, we performed automated quantitative coronary analysis and derived clinically relevant morphological and hemodynamic parameters, including stenosis ratio, time-to-peak, and relative propagation velocity. These results demonstrate that BSC-Net produces accurate vessel segmentation results with preserved vascular continuity for quantitative coronary assessment, enabling reliable downstream analysis and clinical evaluation of coronary artery disease.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15400
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Learned Bow Control on a Measured Bowed-String Model: a Revised Minimum-Bow-Force Law, a Recurrent Controller, and the Domain of a Supervision Ceiling
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A finite-difference bowed-string model with implicitly resolved Stribeck friction is presented, with a regime diagnostic, the Schelleng bow-force limits on four strings, and a comparison of learned bow controllers. Implicit resolution is necessary, and quantitatively so: a lagged contact force cannot capture the string on a discrete grid, so no stick phase forms at any bow force. With friction, impedance and quality factor taken from published measurement rather than fitted, all four strings return a stick fraction of 89.1% against an ideal 90%. Schelleng's maximum bow force is recovered on every string. The minimum is not: it follows $Z v_b \beta^{-1}$ rather than the predicted $Z^2 v_b \beta^{-2}$, reducing both squared dependences to first powers. Six controllers at matched capacity, over four strings and twenty seeds each, place a gated recurrent network ahead of a feedforward one, by most under a mid-stroke disturbance. The feedforward network completes more strokes only from a start the model's own playability map places outside the Helmholtz region. A minimal gated variant fails because gates computed from the input alone cannot clear a latched state. Training loss selects neither the capacity nor the context length, and no learned controller improves on the lookup rule that generated its labels. That bound has a domain. Regressing the controller's score on the rule's gives a slope of 0.32, more than ten standard errors below unity, so the controller overtakes the rule where the rule fails and is bounded by it where it holds. Under a rigid finger stop the plant is provably invariant, so transfer loss between pitches belongs to the controller alone and is traced to one feature. A regime classifier without a stick test labels small-amplitude periodic slipping as Helmholtz motion, and a harmonicity measure rates a string the bow never grips above Helmholtz motion.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14990
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Geometric Signatures of Conceptual Reorganization: A Counterfactual Embedding Framework for Detecting Scientific Revolutions
2026-09-14 02:08:15Dimitris Ntounis, Ariel Schwartzman, Chris Chafe, Thomas A. RyckmanAbstract
We introduce document embedding geometry as a quantitative observable of conceptual reorganization and develop a counterfactual ablation framework for measuring how individual concepts influence the organization of scientific knowledge, providing a quantitative framework for detecting scientific revolutions. The observable is defined by the geometric perturbation induced when removing documents associated with a candidate concept from the embedding space before and after its historical emergence. Statistical validation is performed using five historical case studies spanning physics, mathematics, and machine learning: special relativity, Gödel's incompleteness theorems, the Higgs mechanism, deep learning, and the attention mechanism underlying transformer architectures. Across the historical case studies, the framework identifies measurable geometric signatures associated with conceptual reorganization, while the validation studies expose important limitations arising from document assignment and sparse historical data. These results establish embedding geometry as a medium for quantifying conceptual reorganization, providing a new approach for studying how scientific fields restructure over time.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14917
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Domain-specific Pretraining Profile and Transformer Performance: Evidence from Modeling Digital Pragmatics in Arabic-English Code-switching
2026-09-13 14:58:38Fahad Al Hussen, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Q. Shormani, Ibb University, Ibb, YemenAbstract
This study highlights the role of domain-specific pretraining profile (DSPP) in Transformer performance for modeling digital pragmatics in Arabic-English code-switched discourse. It evaluates MARBERT and XLM-R(oBERTa), with BERT serving as a general-purpose baseline. The models were evaluated on their ability to classify context-sensitive pragmatic functions in code-switched social-media discourse. 11695 unique X posts were collected via Python and utilized for the study. The study employs a quantitative and qualitative NLP approach, following a supervised pipeline. Findings unveil that MARBERT consistently surpasses XLM-R with validation Macro F1 increasing from 0.39 to 0.84 and validation loss decreasing from 0.55 to 0.19. On an independent test set, it achieved 0.96 accuracy, 0.83 macro precision, 0.87 macro recall, and 0.85 Macro F1, while XLM-R achieved 0.92 test accuracy but a substantially lower Macro F1 of 0.52. This was also supported by class-level performance where MARBERT outperforms XLM-R considerably with F1 improvements ranging from +0.33 to +0.60, demonstrating a clear advantage in modeling Arabic digital pragmatics. The study concludes that Transformer performance depends more on DSPP than multilingual coverage alone, as the latter does not guarantee optimal performance on a highly specialized pragmatic classification task.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14571
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Fault Diagnosis for Underwater Vehicles using Moving Horizon Estimation and Gaussian Processes
2026-09-13 14:25:37Fotis Panetsos, Kostas J. KyriakopoulosAbstract
This work proposes a model-based fault detection and diagnosis framework for underwater vehicles subject to actuator faults that explicitly accounts for the presence of unmodeled dynamics. To this end, a Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) is developed to estimate the lumped disturbance, capturing both unmodeled and fault effects. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are employed to approximate the unmodeled dynamics, providing predictions of the corresponding mean and uncertainty across diverse operating conditions. During online operation, the residual between the MHE lumped disturbance estimate and the GP prediction is evaluated using a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test. By incorporating GP-based predictions within the diagnostic framework, robustness to unmodeled dynamics is achieved, enabling effective fault detection and isolation as well as accurate quantitative estimation of fault magnitude. The proposed methodology is experimentally validated in a laboratory water tank, demonstrating reliable diagnostic performance under both open-loop and closed-loop control.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14539
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Robust low-rank tensor completion via factorized weighted tensor schatten-p norm minimization
2026-09-13 06:02:35Binghao Wang, Feng Zhang, Wendong Wang, Jianjun WangAbstract
Low-rank tensor factorization provides a flexible framework for completing multidimensional data from incomplete and corrupted observations. However, unweighted spectral regularizers impose a common shrinkage profile across singular components, which may excessively attenuate dominant low-rank components, and factorized variants either lack component-specific weighting or require costly singular value decompositions (SVDs). This paper proposes two weighted Schatten-$p$ tensor factorization models, termed \WSpTFI{} and \WSpTFII{}, under the tensor-tensor product (t-product) framework to address these limitations. \WSpTFI{} is motivated by a factorized weighted tensor Schatten-$p$ norm identity and permits flexible, possibly asymmetric factor exponents. \WSpTFII{} constructs a regularizer from transform-domain column-pair energies, yielding SVD-free main factor updates and a column-pruning mechanism for reducing redundant rank components. This paper further develops an iteratively reweighted alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM)-type scheme for \WSpTFI{} and an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS)--block successive upper-bound minimization (BSUM) scheme for \WSpTFII{}. Theoretical analysis establishes the weighted factorization relation and provides a conditional limiting Karush--Kuhn--Tucker (KKT) characterization for \WSpTFI{}. For \WSpTFII{}, the actual damped quadratic block updates yield a quantitative sufficient-decrease mechanism for the fixed-$\delta$ smoothed factor objective. This implies asymptotic regularity, and every accumulation point of the fixed-dimensional tail is stationary. Experiments on synthetic tensor completion, color-image restoration, hyperspectral inpainting, and printed-circuit-board defect detection demonstrate competitive reconstruction quality and robustness under various degradation conditions.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14307
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State of Thought Enables Endogenous Reasoning
2026-09-13 05:55:03Zhiren Gong, Yikun Hou, Zihao Zeng, Ming Xiao, Chau Yuen, Wei Yang Bryan LimAbstract
Test-time compute has emerged as a major approach to improving the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing test-time reasoning paradigms rely heavily on externally imposed control, either through fixed reasoning programs or through costly expansion in constrained search spaces, limiting both generalization and efficiency. We propose State of Thought (SoT), a new reasoning paradigm that enables endogenous reasoning in LLMs, with the model's internal reasoning state governing how reasoning unfolds. Concretely, SoT extracts a compact dynamics-geometric state from the model's internal information transfer and uses a 582-parameter controller on frozen backbones to selectively activate historical reasoning support useful under the current reasoning state, framing reasoning as a state-conditioned process over evidence rather than an externally prescribed token chain. Across quantitative (1.34x), general (1.62x), symbolic-and-code (1.76x), and long-context (2.51x) reasoning on 3 LLMs and 16 datasets, SoT consistently improves mean-baseline accuracy while reducing generated tokens by 62.6% and end-to-end latency by 44.6%. Across 2 VLM scales and 3 reasoning tasks, it improves mean accuracy by 3.8 points over reasoning baselines, with 74.9% fewer completion tokens and 73.5% lower latency than search-based methods. Under constrained access, SoT retains 38.2%/36.5% mean accuracy gains in training-free/embedding-only settings, while trajectory-only judging reaches 84.1% agreement across 3 API models. Together, endogenous state-driven reasoning provides a generalizable and efficient alternative.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.16055
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Document Topic Alignment Metrics for Evaluating Topic Models of Short-Text Public Health Communications on Social Media
2026-09-13 03:22:29Wangjiaxuan Xin, Shuhua Yin, Yaorong Ge, Shi ChenAbstract
Topic models are widely used to analyze public health-related social media short texts, yet their evaluation remains dominated by metrics that focus entirely on generated topics alone. There is a lack of metrics that quantitatively assess whether assigned topics meaningfully represent the corresponding short-text posts. We propose Document-Topic Alignment metrics (DoTA), an assignment-aware evaluation framework comprising metrics that measure semantic alignment between documents (posts) and their assigned topics. We also introduce margin-based and discriminative variants that capture topic assignment confidence and distinguishability. We evaluate DoTA across five topic models on three public health-related social media datasets from X and compare DoTA metrics with conventional topic-based metrics. Results show that DoTA provides complementary evaluation cues and aligns meaningfully with human evaluations. These findings establish the need for assignment-aware evaluation and demonstrate that the addition of DoTA enables a more comprehensive and practically meaningful evaluation for assessing short-text topic modeling performance.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14256
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MorphoStyle: Motion Style Transfer with Morphology Control
2026-09-12 23:40:27Xin Feng, Eleonora D'Arnese, Mohan SridharanAbstract
Human motion may be viewed as a combination of action content, style, and body morphology. Existing motion style transfer methods transfer a reference style onto a content motion while assuming a canonical body, whereas shape-aware motion generators adapt motion to a target shape without explicit style control. This separation of motion style and shape (morphology) makes it difficult to generate stylized motions for non-canonical bodies; naively combining a style transfer module with a shape-aware generator often leaks action content from the style reference and disrupts shape-consistent kinematics. We present MorphoStyle, a framework for shape-aware motion style transfer that is built on a shape-conditioned Finite-Scalar-Quantization Variational Auto-Encoder (FSQ-VAE). The key contribution is to pose the desired style transfer as modular latent disentanglement comprising: (i) a contrastive style encoder that extracts content-decoupled style embeddings; (ii) a text-guided style-routing mechanism that locates style-relevant joints in a text-motion feature space; and (iii) a manifold preserving style modulator that injects discriminative style embeddings in content features as a temporally-gated low-rank offset. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that MorphoStyle outperforms competing baselines in terms of both shape control and motion style transfer, while simultaneously providing quantitative shape control. For more details, please see project website: this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14189
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Force-Aware Reinforcement Learning with Hybrid Sensorless Force Estimation for Wheeled-Legged Loco-Manipulation
2026-09-12 07:46:53Xuanqi Zeng, Jiaming Wang, Tianlin Zhang, Lingwei Zhang, Botian Xu, Weipeng Xia, Zhongyu Li, Yun-Hui LiuAbstract
Force-controlled loco-manipulation requires a whole-body policy to coordinate locomotion and arm motion while regulating end-effector interaction forces. This is challenging under floating-base dynamics and changing support contacts, particularly when end-effector force/torque sensing is unavailable for control. This paper presents a force-aware reinforcement learning approach with hybrid sensorless force estimation for wheeled-legged loco-manipulation. The proposed method provides a structured estimate of the end-effector force as an explicit policy observation, enabling force-guided contact behavior without using an end-effector force/torque sensor for control. The force estimate is obtained by combining generalized momentum observation, contact-constrained wrench projection, and temporal residual learning: the model-based components extract the physically structured part of the whole-body disturbance, while the residual network compensates the remaining motion-dependent bias. The estimated force is integrated into a mode-conditioned whole-body policy with an axis-wise force/position selector, allowing free-space motion, pure force regulation, and hybrid force/position control within one controller. Simulation results demonstrate improved sensorless force estimation and force-control performance. Hardware experiments further validate the proposed controller through quantitative valve-rotation and hybrid wiping evaluations, together with force-guided door opening and zero-force human-guided motion on a real wheeled-legged platform.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13779
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Runtime-Incremental Transformer for Reinforcement-Learning-Based Adaptive Control
2026-09-11 21:16:47Giansalvo Cirrincione, Adriano FagioliniAbstract
Learning-based adaptive control of robotic manipulators with non-observable friction memory has been addressed by attention- based meta-controllers whose number of attention heads is fixed before training and is tuned by costly offline search. At long memory horizons, such fixed-capacity controllers are prone to catastrophic failures on a sizeable fraction of training seeds. The present paper introduces a runtime mechanism that grows and prunes the heads of the attention block during reinforcement learning, governed by two signals: the effective rank of the on-policy context distribution, which triggers growth when representational capacity becomes insufficient, and the per-head output magnitude, which flags redundant heads for removal. Policy continuity at growth events and a quantitative bound at prune events are established analytically. On a two- link manipulator with Stribeck friction, the proposed mechanism attains full success across all memory regimes, eliminating the long-horizon failure mode and removing the need for offline tuning of the head count.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13545
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Building a Production Greek-English Speech Recognizer
2026-09-11 20:02:57Christos Petrocheilos, Cleopatra Papadopoulou, Chris Porikis, Ioakeim Perros, Ayoub Kirouane, Themistoklis NikolisAbstract
We report a multi-month engineering program to build Sophea, a production bilingual Greek-English automatic speech recognition system. We evaluate the system against nine production gates covering Greek and English word error rate, language identification, and hallucinations on non-speech audio. Across twenty-three training iterations and two model architectures, no training-data composition passed all nine gates simultaneously. Meeting the Greek noisy-environment target required about 1,500 steps of dense domain exposure, while preserving English language identification tolerated only about 250 steps, or about 1,250 with a rebalanced mix that reduced Greek accuracy. We describe a six-stage data pipeline in which calibrating an audio-quality filter against in-domain anchors reduced the discarded share of scored Greek audio from 98.7 percent to 10.6 percent. A pre-registered ablation isolated a hallucination defect to one training-data package. A three-model ROVER ensemble increased gate coverage from 4-7 of 9 for individual models to 9 of 9 and reduced overlapping-speech WER from 53.35 percent to 37.87 percent, a 29 percent relative improvement. A separate learned per-clip arbiter over two models is listed as sophea/asr-k1 (preview) on the public Open ASR Leaderboard, with 4.26 percent average WER across eight public English test sets, and reaches 25.88 percent WER on live Greek noisy-environment traffic. We also document five cases in which a measurement tool produced a plausible but incorrect result and seven substantial approaches that were evaluated but not shipped. No model weights or training data are released; we report methodology and quantitative results only.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13498
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Generative AI and Extended Reality in Collaborative Architectural Design Education: An Exploratory Studio Study
2026-09-11 19:58:18Yao Xiao, Max Chen, Yichen Li, Nathaniel Powers, Maxwell Wiesenfeld, Gillian Smith, Soroush Farzin, Shichao LiuAbstract
Architectural design education relies heavily on visual ideation and representation to support collaborative learning in studio environments. Recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and extended reality (XR) offer new opportunities for rapid idea exploration and immersive spatial visualization. This exploratory mixed-methods classroom study investigated how GenAI-assisted multi-user XR influenced collaborative architectural conceptual design. We developed GenARch, a pipeline that integrates GenAI-based visual generation with collaborative XR environments, and deployed it in an undergraduate architectural design studio. Twenty-seven students formed seven self-selected design teams; four teams incorporated GenARch into their usual course workflow to support collaborative ideation and visualization, while three teams continued the same course workflow without GenARch. Pre- and post-intervention surveys assessed design self-efficacy, attitudes toward collaborative learning, and teamwork; a seven-member panel evaluated team design presentations; and GenARch teams participated in group interviews. The quantitative results showed larger relative declines in confidence and outcome expectancy for the GenARch condition and a positive difference-in-differences estimate for perceived conflict management, while panel-rated presentation outcomes were not significantly different between conditions. Interviews indicated complementary roles for the technologies: GenAI supported idea externalization and visual reference generation, whereas XR supported spatial, contextual, and scale-based evaluation. Students also reported challenges related to control, dimensional fidelity, shared attention, and motion comfort. These findings highlight both opportunities and limitations when GenAI and XR are incorporated into collaborative design education.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13494
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3D CT-to-PET Translation via Latent Brownian Bridge Diffusion
2026-09-11 13:47:50Sarita Mourya, Francesco Di Feola, Pierangelo Veltri, Paolo SodaAbstract
Computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) provide complementary anatomical and functional information for cancer diagnosis and treatment planning. However, the widespread use of PET is limited by high radiation exposure, elevated costs, and restricted availability. To address these limitations, deep learning-based CT-to-PET translation has emerged as a promising approach for synthesizing PET-like information directly from CT images, although accurately modeling the large cross-modal gap remains challenging. In this work, we propose a 3D CT-to-PET translation framework based on latent Brownian Bridge Diffusion (BBDM). The method consists of two stages. First, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is trained on paired CT-PET patches, integrating contrastive learning to improve latent alignment between anatomical and metabolic representations. Second, a BBDM is trained in the latent space to translate CT latent representations into their corresponding PET counterparts. The translated PET latents are then decoded and stitched to reconstruct the final 3D PET volume. We evaluate the proposed approach on two publicly available datasets. Quantitative results based on image fidelity and lesion-level PET-specific metrics demonstrate improved performance compared with competing methods. In particular, the proposed approach improves PET signal fidelity, better preserves clinically relevant uptake patterns, and shows improved performance in preserving small-lesion metabolic activation, paving the way for virtual imaging applications.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12860
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An Ultra-Widefield Swept-Source OCTA Dataset and a Polar-Gated Mamba Network for Retinal Vessel Segmentation
2026-09-11 08:25:23Yang Liu, Yibing Shen, Keming Zhao, Cenk Jiang, Zhenghang Qian, Zhicheng Du, Chen Xiong, Qidong Shao, Zijun Lin, Yunqi Hu, Jingjing Zhou, Lian Zhang, Peter E. Lobie, Peiwu Qin, Chengming YangAbstract
Ultra-widefield (UWF) swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography (SS-OCTA) enables large-area retinal vascular imaging, yet vessel segmentation at this scale lacks dedicated public benchmarks and comprehensive evaluation for quantitative vascular analysis. We introduce WOIVES, to our knowledge the first publicly available UWF SS-OCTA vessel-segmentation dataset, comprising 206 eyes from 152 participants with a 24x20mm^2 field of view. WOIVES spans emmetropia to high myopia and provides soft probability vessel annotations. We further propose PG-Mamba, a visual state space model that enhances conventional directional scans with two complementary polar-coordinate scan orders. An auxiliary Dynamic FOV Gating module performs spatial modulation at the bottleneck. PG-Mamba outperformed seven competitive approaches on broad segmentation metrics under cross-validation. It achieved the lowest median absolute errors for vessel density, fractal dimension, and vessel length density. WOIVES is publicly available on Zenodo (DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21904672), and the PG-Mamba code is available at this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12574
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Information Specialization and Constrained Synthesis in Multi-Agent LLM Forecasting: A Prospective Live-Study of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
2026-09-11 06:49:28Julian Varghese, Lucas Bickmann, Sarah SandmannAbstract
Large language models are being organized into multi-agent systems with specialized roles, but whether such specialization produces distinct forecasts and whether subsequent synthesis improves utility remains unclear. In this study, we carried out a live, prospective evaluation over the final 56 matches of the information-dense 2026 FIFA World Cup, keeping a frontier foundation model constant while assigning two primary forecasting agents contrasting specialist roles: a quantitative specialist focusing on structured performance statistics and a news specialist focusing on current injuries, tactics and information from press conferences. Their forecasts were then reviewed by a separate critic before being combined by a meta-agent, resulting in a sequential four-agent model. Forecasts from the betting market served as an external benchmark. The news specialist obtained the highest mean probability-weighted Top-3 utility and matched the betting market in Top-3 exact-score hits. Nevertheless, the two specialist forecasters agreed on at least two of the three scorelines in 50 out of 56 matches, and the meta-agent never generated more than one scoreline outside the specialists' forecast set. These findings show that rapidly changing, unstructured information can provide a valuable forecasting signal alongside structured statistics, whereas adding critic and meta-agent stages does not necessarily create complementary information or improve on the strongest specialist.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12495
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Pedestrian Crossing Intent Classification From Event-Based Vision Using Convolutional Spiking Neural Networks With Temporal Augmentation
2026-09-11 02:34:24Henok Teklu, Mustafa Sakhai, Maciej Wielgosz, Matej MertikAbstract
Anticipating whether a pedestrian will cross the road is safety-critical for autonomous vehicles, requiring real-time inference under challenging conditions including motion blur, high dynamic range, and class imbalance. Conventional frame-based deep networks process redundant RGB data at fixed frame rates, limiting their temporal resolution and energy efficiency. In this work we present an end-to-end pipeline that (i) converts real-world driving footage from the Joint Attention in Autonomous Driving (JAAD) dataset into synthetic dynamic vision sensor (DVS) event streams using the v2e simulator, (ii) augments training with the CARLA-simulated DVS sequences of the DVS-PedX dataset under both normal and adverse weather conditions, and (iii) trains a novel convolutional spiking neural network (Conv-SNN) with clip-consistent DVS augmentation to classify pedestrian crossing intent as binary: crossing or non-crossing. We detail all architectural decisions, the exact leaky-integrate-and-fire neuron dynamics with surrogate-gradient learning, the class-balanced loss formulation, JAAD oversampling at 6x, and a 70/15/15 stratified splitting protocol. The trained model achieves 95.83% accuracy and F1 = 0.9695 on the JAAD DVS test set, 97.79% accuracy and F1 = 0.9478 on normal CARLA DVS, and 94.78% accuracy and F1 = 0.8369 on adverse-weather CARLA DVS, all from a 1.07M-parameter architecture trained on CPU. Compared to prior frame-based approaches on JAAD, our method closes or surpasses the reported accuracy while operating natively on sparse temporal representations. We include a thorough analysis of the convergence behaviour across all 15 training epochs, domain transfer characteristics, and a quantitative comparison with representative related work.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13328
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Decoupling Error Attribution in Cloud-Native Graph-RAG: A Data Integrity Diagnostic Framework
2026-09-10 22:56:26Shuai Yan, Yuhang Wu, Xiaodong Huang, Ke WangAbstract
Graph-RAG systems often assume pristine data quality, overlooking the severe impact of perturbations in cloud-native databases. This paper proposes a three-layer decoupled diagnostic framework to orthogonally attribute system errors to reasoning loss, Knowledge Graph (KG) defects, and Cypher generation errors. Evaluated on a spatio-temporal ecological KG of the Southeastern Tibet region with eight defect types, results reveal that data integrity, rather than algorithmic reasoning, is the dominant performance bottleneck, with structural defects degrading system accuracy from 0.93 to 0.39. Crucially, we observe a masking-like phenomenon termed the Parametric Knowledge Masking Effect (PKME), suggesting LLMs compensate for broken retrieval paths using internal memory. This shrinks apparent query generation errors by over 70 percent, obscuring actual storage deterioration and increasing the risk of false negatives for automated monitoring. This work provides a quantitative foundation for auditing and optimizing data integrity in cloud-based information fusion systems.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.13324
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