Paper Reading AI Learner

TC-Next: Zero-Shot Multimodal Cyclone Forecasting

2026-09-02 04:17:22
Zhe Wang, Sijie Chen, Yiming Luo, Daehyun Kim, Chien-Yi Chang
arXiv_CV
         
Abstract

We present TropicalCycloneNext (TC-Next), a multimodal deep learning model that forecasts tropical cyclone track and intensity at $6$-$24$ h leads by leveraging a foundation model's forecast fields of atmospheric kinematic and thermodynamic fields and GridSat infrared satellite imagery. Trained only on GraphCast forecasts over the Western Pacific (WP), yet reliant only on generic atmospheric variables, TC-Next on GraphCast lowers track error by $15$-$44\%$ and intensity error by a factor of $3$-$6$ relative to a conventional, rule-based tracker, TempestExtremes; applied without retraining to the forecast fields of Pangu-Weather and IFS HRES, it stays ahead of TempestExtremes on both. Applied zero-shot to the generic weather fields of WeatherNext Cyclones on the 2025 WP season, TC-Next attains lower intensity error at every lead time, and lower or comparable track error, compared to that model's specialized direct tracker in a deterministic comparison. Our ablation studies show that our multimodal model is able to utilize the additional modality to improve performance in tracking errors at every lead time and in intensity prediction at longer lead times.

Abstract (translated)

URL

https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02085

PDF

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.02085.pdf

Tags
3D Action Action_Localization Action_Recognition Activity Adversarial Agent Attention Autonomous Bert Boundary_Detection Caption Chat Classification CNN Compressive_Sensing Contour Contrastive_Learning Deep_Learning Denoising Detection Dialog Diffusion Drone Dynamic_Memory_Network Edge_Detection Embedding Embodied Emotion Enhancement Face Face_Detection Face_Recognition Facial_Landmark Few-Shot Gait_Recognition GAN Gaze_Estimation Gesture Gradient_Descent Handwriting Human_Parsing Image_Caption Image_Classification Image_Compression Image_Enhancement Image_Generation Image_Matting Image_Retrieval Inference Inpainting Intelligent_Chip Knowledge Knowledge_Graph Language_Model LLM Matching Medical Memory_Networks Multi_Modal Multi_Task NAS NMT Object_Detection Object_Tracking OCR Ontology Optical_Character Optical_Flow Optimization Person_Re-identification Point_Cloud Portrait_Generation Pose Pose_Estimation Prediction QA Quantitative Quantitative_Finance Quantization Re-identification Recognition Recommendation Reconstruction Regularization Reinforcement_Learning Relation Relation_Extraction Represenation Represenation_Learning Restoration Review RNN Robot Salient Scene_Classification Scene_Generation Scene_Parsing Scene_Text Segmentation Self-Supervised Semantic_Instance_Segmentation Semantic_Segmentation Semi_Global Semi_Supervised Sence_graph Sentiment Sentiment_Classification Sketch SLAM Sparse Speech Speech_Recognition Style_Transfer Summarization Super_Resolution Surveillance Survey Text_Classification Text_Generation Time_Series Tracking Transfer_Learning Transformer Unsupervised Video_Caption Video_Classification Video_Indexing Video_Prediction Video_Retrieval Visual_Relation VQA Weakly_Supervised Zero-Shot