Reliable uncertainty evaluation is essential for assessing the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) predictions, particularly in safety-critical applications. This paper explores conceptual analogies between uncertainty evaluation in ML and measurement science, drawing on the evolution of metrology from error-based approaches to the framework established by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Particular attention is devoted to the distinction between process-level and result-level quality and to the limitations of the conventional classification of ML uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components. It is argued that this dichotomy, similarly to the traditional distinction between random and systematic measurement errors, is inherently model-dependent and provides an insufficient basis for a unified uncertainty evaluation framework. Further analogies between machine learning and measurement field of knowledge are identified concerning distribution shifts, anomalous operating conditions, and the validity of uncertainty evaluation. Building on the proposed considerations, the paper advocates a metrology-inspired approach based on the systematic identification, quantification, and propagation of uncertainty contributions. By extending the methodology already established in measurement science to ML, this approach could offer a potentially rigorous, consistent, and transferable framework for evaluating the trustworthiness of individual predictions.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18066
A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework that we refer to as Prediction-Interval-Conditional Prediction Intervals (PICPIs). Formally, a PICPI is an interval $I$ satisfying a self-consistency condition: $$\mathbb{E} [Y \mid p(X) \in I] \in I,$$ for predictive model $p$, contextual covariate $X$, and outcome $Y$. Thus, an interval simultaneously defines a stratum of prediction values and certifies that the mean outcome in that stratum lies in the same interval. This self-consistency condition yields data-adaptive strata without altering the original prediction. Such intervals can be constructed using practical algorithms. Under regularity of the prediction distribution, the constructed intervals cover all but an arbitrarily small fraction of prediction values and have widths that decrease at rate $n^{-1/3}$, up to logarithmic factors and the prediction error. Moreover, identifying these locally calibrated intervals can, in turn, inform downstream decision-making. We derive inference procedures for PICPIs in probabilistic prediction and multi-class classification, accompanied by theoretical guarantees. Empirical results are provided that compare PICPIs with existing interval-based baselines.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25388
Current image-guided neuronavigation techniques, such as intraoperative MRI and ultrasound, are limited by high costs, limited sensitivity and operational complexity. There is a clear need for more efficient systems to enhance intra-operative tumor detection and improve patient outcomes for intrinsic brain tumor resection. Whereas previous intraoperative brain HSI studies have predominantly investigated high-grade gliomas, glioblastomas, or mixed-grade cohorts, this clinical study focuses specifically on low-grade gliomas (LGGs). LGGs strongly resemble normal brain under white light conditions on the operative microscope. This study characterizes spectral differences between healthy and tumor tissue and provides a paired comparison of HSI- and RGB-based classification at matched tissue locations and under identical patient-level data splits. Tumor regions showed consistently lower reflectance, which may be associated with differences in hemoglobin concentration and oxygenation. A range of classification models was evaluated. The 3D CNN, which integrates spectral and spatial features, achieved the highest median ROC-AUC of 74.5%, compared with 67.9% for the spectral-only XGBoost model and 64.0% for the RGB-based model. These results support further investigation of HSI for low-grade glioma classification and quantify its performance relative to conventional RGB imaging in this cohort.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17944
Sparse autoencoders decompose language model representations into interpretable features, but feature interpretation in this literature remains predominantly correlational. Attribution methods offer more direct estimates of feature influence, yet their faithfulness to actual causal effects has not been systematically evaluated in the SAE setting. We apply SHAP-based attribution to SAE latent features and evaluate it against direct causal intervention, using sentiment classification on SST-2 with GPT-2 Small and a 32,768-feature layer-7 SAE as a testbed. We compare SHAP to Integrated Gradients, Gradient$\times$Input, and probe-weight baselines across linear and MLP probe arms, scoring each against feature ablation and activation steering measured through the language model's own logit difference. Most faithfulness associations we measure do not survive multiple-comparison correction, and attribution methods that agree strongly with one another ($\rho = 0.42$--$0.80$) agree poorly with measured causal effects, indicating that inter-method agreement is not evidence of causal faithfulness. Two effects hold under control. First, local per-example attribution retains a directional advantage over global averaged attribution, while its apparent importance advantage is explained by feature activity rather than superior causal ranking. Second, under known-ground-truth minimal pairs, attribution recovers inserted sentiment signal well above chance (AUROC $0.792$) but fails to localize deletions (AUROC $0.520$), suggesting that these methods detect the presence of a feature's influence more reliably than its absence. We argue that importance faithfulness and directional faithfulness are separable properties requiring separate evaluation, and that attribution agreement should not substitute for causal validation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17898
Evaluating fashion retrieval systems remains challenging due to the limited availability of benchmarks that capture the fine-grained, open-ended queries encountered in real-world search and recommendation. Existing benchmarks often rely on manual curation, predefined taxonomies, or synthetic prompts, limiting scalability and semantic coverage. We introduce FASHION-RQ: Mining Hierarchical Semantic Structure for Automated Evaluation of Fashion Retrieval, an automated framework that derives user-type queries and relevance sets directly from catalog structure. Our key insight is that hierarchical discrete representations learned by Residual Quantized Variational Autoencoders (RQ-VAE) organize products into semantically coherent clusters at progressively finer granularities. We leverage this structure to construct FASHION-RQBENCH, a scalable benchmark without manual query annotation or predefined taxonomies. We propose four complementary tasks for evaluating ranking, relevance classification, fine-grained sibling discrimination, and paraphrase robustness, alongside query- and attribute-level relevance metrics. Experiments across recent retrieval models demonstrate that FASHION-RQBENCH differentiates model capabilities across query types and attributes. A human study further shows that benchmark queries achieve comparable naturalness and higher intent clarity than real user queries, supporting their validity for real-world evaluation. The code and FASHION-RQBENCH dataset will be publicly released upon acceptance.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17841
We study industrial fault diagnosis as a classification task that assigns sensor time-series windows to predefined health states or fault types. Scarce labels and changing operating conditions make repeated training of specialized classifiers costly. Yet structures such as periodicity, trends, and transients can remain diagnostically informative and be examined through reusable analytical tools. LLM agents can select and interpret these tools, but fixed rules or training-derived guidance may not resolve each signal's ambiguity, while unconstrained interpretation may overstate weak or conflicting results. We introduce Agentic4PDM, a framework that separates adaptive investigation from control over evidence use. LLM agents compare each signal with labeled references from every candidate class, identify unresolved distinctions, and propose follow-up measurements. A deterministic software controller, called the host, enforces contract-checked gated adjudication (CCGA): it checks requests, requires commitment to a complete tool batch before results are observed, and assigns evidence roles based on tool checks against labeled references. These roles distinguish corroborative support from advisory information. The Judge Agent proposes a diagnosis, while the controller checks protocol compliance and records the investigation. Agentic4PDM supports training-free diagnosis using pretrained representations and labeled references without task-specific diagnostic models, and a standard setting that additionally investigates trained-model predictions. Experiments on selected bearing and motor diagnosis challenges and an unfiltered industrial test set supplied by our customer show gains in aggregate macro F1 over the evaluated diagnostic and agentic baselines. Ablations further support the value of the governed workflow.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17786
Electrocardiogram (ECG) models need supervision that targets evolving weaknesses and remains faithful to waveform evidence. We introduce ECG-RSI, a recursive self-improvement framework combining verified waveform synthesis with feedback-guided intervention search. Signal remeasurement verifies waveform edits; construction errors guide generator repair, while learner errors motivate interventions compared on a separate selection set. Across seven benchmarks, three rounds raise Qwen3.5-35B-A3B's mean question-answering accuracy from 34.57% to 56.04% and mean classification F1 from 24.27 to 34.03. Across the retained trajectory, the preferred supervision shifts from direct reinforcement to confusion-focused contrasts. Continued feedback correction yields diminishing external gains. These results motivate separating error diagnosis from intervention selection and checking whether gains on the feedback set transfer to independent benchmarks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17718
Entities in real-world systems often evolve over time: users shift between information consumption patterns, researchers migrate between fields, and firms transition between financial risk states. When such systems are modeled as dynamic graphs, these transitions correspond to nodes whose class labels change between consecutive snapshots, which we call shifters. Correctly classifying shifters is often more consequential than classifying stable nodes with persistent labels, as detecting such transitions enables timely intervention in high-stakes settings. Yet, we identify a systematic failure mode across all major dynamic graph neural network architectures: shifter performance consistently lags behind stable nodes, with errors concentrated on the old label. Our structural analysis traces this failure to embedding inertia: neighborhood aggregation keeps shifter representations anchored to the old-class centroid, and this effect is strongest precisely where it is hardest to correct, namely for shifters whose neighborhoods remain aligned with the old class. Guided by this finding, we propose CHASE, a model-agnostic CHange-Aware framework for Shifting nodEs that wraps any dynamic GNN with targeted components for detecting label shifts and overriding stale neighborhood signals. CHASE consistently improves shifter performance across all tested models and datasets (up to 114.9% and 202.5% improvement on accuracy and F1 score, respectively) while preserving stable-node performance. We additionally contribute three dynamic graph benchmarks with naturally shifting labels, filling a gap in existing resources. The source code is available at this https URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17582
Self-supervised pretraining has expanded the pool of 3D medical foundation models, but published evaluations use different datasets, endpoints and fine-tuning protocols. Models also differ in architecture, pretraining objective and data, while downstream targets range from voxel-level masks to patient-level diagnoses and outcomes. As a result, published findings provide little directly comparable evidence for choosing a model for a new task. Direct comparison of adaptation performance requires fine-tuning candidates on labelled target data, at substantial computational cost. We benchmark 23 candidates across the same 14 segmentation, classification and regression tasks spanning multiple anatomies and modalities. No candidate ranked among the top three across all segmentation tasks or across all classification and regression tasks; a convolutional encoder could outperform a transformer trained with the same objective on one task but underperform it on another. We benchmark transferability estimators against the fine-tuned rankings and find that their agreement varies across dense segmentation, classification and regression. InsightRank uses task-appropriate frozen-feature statistics and architecture-aware pairwise comparisons to rank candidates before fine-tuning. Across the 23-model pool, mean Kendall tau-b was 0.431 for segmentation and 0.352 for classification and regression. The segmentation Top 3 contained a task winner on four of nine tasks; the image-level Top 3 contained none on the five tasks, despite better full-ranking agreement than the matched conventional estimators. A three-model shortlist reduced recorded extraction-plus-training job time by 85.8% across seven segmentation tasks. Together, the benchmark provides a common reference for model selection and InsightRank offers a lower-cost way to prioritize fine-tuning, with shortlist performance that differs by target type.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17573
Generative safety guards must classify requests correctly and return outputs that applications can parse. Reasoning guards can improve classification accuracy while producing outputs that applications cannot parse. When applications cannot extract a correct prediction, fallback handling can allow harmful requests or block safe ones. We introduce Resolve--Express--Act (REA), a framework that traces judgments through parsing and fallback to application actions. Experiments on classifiers and safety guards show that correct predictions can appear in incorrectly formatted outputs. Parsing the safety verdict preserves the reasoning guard's accuracy advantage, while stricter explanation requirements reject additional correct predictions. Accepting formatting variations recovers most rejected correct predictions. Held-out tests confirm that output requirements and generation limits affect whether correct predictions can be parsed. In our fail-open replay, matching the parser to the output and fixing formatting reduced the fraction of harmful requests allowed despite correct guard judgments from 95.5% to 0%. A fixed-output comparison shows that model-based extraction can preserve guard verdicts, but is not automatically reliable; deterministic normalization already repairs the observed native-format failures. Fallback replay shows that the same correct prediction can lead to different safety actions depending on the parser and fallback policy, including allowing requests the guard correctly identifies as harmful.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17473
Social media platforms generate vast volumes of user-generated content that often obscure meaningful discourse, a phenomenon conceptualized as social noise. While existing misinformation detection methods primarily focus on factual verification, they largely overlook the role of social noise in amplifying misinformation. This study assesses the performance of six text-based models and a graph neural network (GNN) in mitigating the effects of misinformation using predefined social noise constructs. The dataset consists of 500,000 tweets collected from the X platform using the Ukraine hashtag during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from March 2024 to March 2025. Advanced machine learning models achieve strong performance, with accuracies ranging from 79.94% to 97.17%. RoBERTa demonstrates the highest performance, with an accuracy of 97.17%, Cohen's kappa of 0.9660, MCC of 0.9660, and AUC of 0.9977. The GNN achieves an accuracy of 64.52% and an AUC of 0.899, demonstrating performance above random-chance classification by exploiting the relational structure between tweets. All text-based models achieve kappa values greater than 0.75, indicating substantial overall agreement. Explainable AI analysis using LIME reveals that 89.6% of predictive weight is attributed to contextual features rather than isolated keywords. The findings highlight that integrating social noise into AI pipelines enhances misinformation detection and supports more effective mitigation strategies in large-scale social media environments.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17469
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are promising for energy-efficient spatiotemporal pattern recognition at the edge, but efficient deployment and on-device adaptation require specialized hardware. In this work, we present an FPGA implementation of multilayer SNNs for spatiotemporal pattern classification, in which both inference and training take place on the same hardware. Our design adopts a temporal-forward-only training algorithm that avoids the memory and latency overhead associated with traditional Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT). A mixed-precision scheme balances training stability with resource efficiency, and architectural optimization maximizes hardware and memory utilization. We further identify and resolve hazards that arise when inference and learning share the same memory, including port conflicts between the forward and backward access patterns and read-after-write dependencies in floating-point potential accumulation. Experimental evaluations on MNIST and five multivariate time-series classification datasets demonstrate that, with fully on-chip training, our SNN model achieves accuracy comparable to SNN or LSTM trained with BPTT. Compared to CPU and GPU based implementations, our FPGA design delivers 2.5 to 6 times higher throughput while consuming an order of magnitude less energy per sample.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17463
Vision Transformers incur high computational costs when processing long visual token sequences. Existing reduction methods typically rank tokens independently and discard those deemed unimportant or redundant. We propose a reconstruction-guided framework for visual token condensation (ReConV), which summarizes the complete visual sequence with a compact Summary Bank (SMB) and retains tokens whose information is not adequately captured by the SMB, as indicated by their reconstruction residuals. At each compression layer, a lightweight position-conditioned decoder reconstructs the current tokens, leaving shared information compressed in the SMB while explicitly preserving poorly reconstructed details. Experiments on image classification and multimodal understanding demonstrate favorable performance-efficiency trade-offs: ReConV surpasses the uncompressed baseline with 48\% fewer GMACs on ImageNet and enables reusable image-level representations for efficient multi-turn inference. Code is available at TokenDrop.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17412
Always-on virtual assistants increasingly personalize on-device to new user-specific commands via few-shot fine-tuning (e.g., LoRA), but this adaptation is evaluated almost exclusively on whether it learns the new commands, not on whether the assistant can still recognize an input that matches none of its intents - the out-of-scope (OOS) rejection problem. We show that naive few-shot LoRA personalization degrades OOS-rejection AUROC (area under the ROC curve) on every one of five public intent-classification benchmarks (mean drop $0.055$--$0.258$, five seeds each), while in-scope accuracy is preserved. A scorer-invariant check shows part of this drop is an artifact of the standard confidence scorer's own miscalibration under adaptation, though a smaller, genuine effect remains under any scorer; we trace it to a measurable shrinkage of the embedding margin around known-intent regions (pooled Spearman rho=0.61$). A deployment-cheap fix is scoring rejection by Mahalanobis distance instead of softmax confidence without extra training/retraining recovers most of the lost quality on 3 of 5 datasets at no accuracy cost, beats two further OOD scoring baselines, and generalizes across shot count, LoRA rank, and a second base encoder. We report honestly where the fix falls short and release all code for reproducibility.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.20652
Large audio-language models (LALMs) have become highly capable on a wide range of tasks spanning speech, music, and environmental sound. However, many modern LALMs resample input audio to 16 kHz mono, making all frequencies above 8 kHz unobservable. We present SpectralBridge, a lightweight extension that gives such a model access to the 8-16 kHz band by joining low- and upper-band representations with time-aligned paired cross-frequency attention. Applied to Audio Flamingo Next, the method trains only a small adapter and rank-8 LoRA modules, while leaving the original audio encoder, audio projector, and base language model frozen. SpectralBridge improves both zero-shot transfer and downstream fine-tuning: it raises zero-shot balanced accuracy on the ESC-50 audio classification dataset from 75.5 to 90.5, and when fine-tuned on Insect-10, a 10-way insect species task we construct from InsectSet459 recordings, under the same budget as a LoRA fine-tuned baseline, it reaches 55.4 balanced accuracy against the baseline's 26.2. On a benchmark where the answer depends only on the 8-16 kHz band, it gains 30 mAP over the frozen model. Erasing the upper-band stream from the trained model removes these gains, showing that they come from the high-frequency signal itself rather than from extra tokens or the adapted prompt format.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17048
Tabular data generation aims to synthesize realistic samples from limited observations while faithfully capturing the underlying data distribution. Tabular foundation models (TFMs), pretrained on diverse tabular tasks and adapted through in-context learning, have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, suggesting the potential of extending this paradigm to tabular data generation. However, the strong predictive performance of TFMs often relies on sufficiently large context sets, whereas tabular generation is typically needed precisely when target data are scarce. Extending the foundation-model paradigm to generation therefore requires reliable distribution inference from only a limited context. To this end, we propose TabGift, a context-efficient tabular foundation model enabling both efficient distribution modeling and effective generation from only a few context samples. TabGift maps heterogeneous tables into a shared latent space with a pretrained tabular encoder, where an in-context diffusion model learns to denoise latent samples conditioned on a small set of clean examples. This design transfers generative priors across datasets and enables distribution inference from limited context, while a lightweight dataset-specific MLP decoder maps generated representations back to the original data space. Experiments on 7 classification and 11 regression datasets show that TabGift consistently outperforms representative baselines in synthetic data quality, with particularly strong gains under limited-context settings, while achieving substantially faster adaptation and generation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16990
Visual in-context learning (ICL) enables vision-language models (VLMs) to adapt at test time via demonstration examples, but its effectiveness depends critically on the examples selected. Recent counterfactual selection methods improve ICL by constructing demonstrations that expose how individual attribute changes affect the answer. However, they require multi-stage pipelines involving attribute extraction, caption engineering, and composed image matching. We propose a simpler alternative grounded in a key observation: a model's own prediction errors are natural counterfactual demonstrations that directly encode its failure modes. Our method, SMILE (Self-Mined Visual In-Context Learning from Errors), builds a model-specific pool of hard negatives offline by recording the target VLM's own mistakes. At test time, the prediction serves as a direction signal that surfaces, in the semantic embedding space, the past mistakes most likely to recur for the current query. This prediction-conditioned identification provides a unified mechanism for both closed-set classification and open-ended visual question answering without task-specific design. Across four benchmarks and four VLMs, SMILE delivers an average task-score gain of +3.09 points over the SOTA baseline at 5x lower latency. Project page: this https URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16977
Large audio-language models (LALMs) are fast becoming a general interface to sound, yet how far their broad pretraining carries into specialized domains remains largely open. Vessel monitoring, maritime safety, and ocean sensing all depend on recognizing underwater signals, but to our knowledge LALMs have not been systematically evaluated on them. Annotated recordings are costly to collect, and a faithful synthetic alternative has to bring together many interacting factors: the structure of detection pulses, communication waveforms, and ship-radiated noise, and the sound-speed profile, geometry, and multipath propagation through which each reaches the receiver. We address this by proposing \textbf{UA-Bench}, to our knowledge the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating LALMs on underwater acoustic signal recognition. It comprises 375,051 audio records that couple parameterized sources with modeled propagation, so that every record can be traced to the conditions that produced it. The records span these three signal families, and each carries a three-level label hierarchy (13 leaf classes), a templated multi-turn dialogue, and source and channel metadata. We evaluate on a balanced 2,600-record subset with a gated coarse-to-fine protocol that locates each error at source routing, fine-grained classification, or output format, and add a paired silent-audio control to test whether the waveform is actually used. Nine open LALMs, evaluated without task-specific adaptation, reach only 2.0\%--13.1\% leaf accuracy, against a random reference of 7.7\%. The waveform helps source routing far more than leaf recognition (for one model, +29.5 versus +2.3 points over silence), and just four models gain reliably at the leaf level, by at most 4.7 points. UA-Bench thus gives a reference point for these models, and its released training partition supports follow-up adaptation work.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16942
Research on video classification models has witnessed significant growth recently, accompanied by a significant increase in the demand for datasets to train such models. Existing video dataset curation approaches share a common bottleneck: candidate videos must be downloaded before any relevance judgment is made, which results in storage, time and annotation costs. In this work, we present a filtering step, using Large Language Models (LLMs) to pre-screen videos based on their metadata, before actually downloading these videos, thereby saving on these costs. We evaluate the LLMs against a strict human majority vote derived from four independent annotators and validate the reliability of the annotations through inter-annotator agreement analysis (Gwet's AC1). We compare the LLM pre-filter against two no-LLM baselines, namely two keyword heuristics. Via a Leave-One-Rater-Out (LOO) mechanism and an Add-One-Rater-In (AORI), we evaluate the performance of the LLMs as virtual annotators. Finally, we report cost comparisons relative to existing approaches. To ensure reproducability, we made our implementation available on github.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16857
Deepfake speech detectors are typically evaluated as binary classifiers on fixed benchmarks, but deployed systems face evolving attacks, codecs, speakers, and recording conditions, with labels unavailable during operation. This makes it difficult to know when a detector operates in familiar conditions and can be relied on. We propose an unsupervised drift monitor that operates on the internal embeddings of a deployed detector. The monitor compares each input against bona fide and spoof references using regularized Mahalanobis distances. These distances define trusted, ambiguous, and novel regions of the detector embedding space, allowing unfamiliar inputs to be routed for review. We evaluate the monitor on four modern detectors on three datasets. The monitor raises alerts for dataset mismatches and substantially reduces the security-critical case of accepting deepfakes at the cost of reduced automatic coverage. The results also show that drift affects both classes: bona fide recordings can move away from the training reference, increasing alert rates even in in-domain settings. Our findings suggest that deployed deepfake speech detectors should be treated not only as a binary classification, but also as a reliability problem.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16826