Modern machines can solve equations, follow logic and reason through language, yet they still struggle with problems that require visual non-verbal reasoning. This is evident even in advanced systems such as DeepSeek, ChatGPT and Gemini, which remain limited on visual tasks such as completing abstract patterns or delineating ambiguous regions-of-interest. Unlike explicit intermediate steps in verbal reasoning which can be verified through logic or automated tests, visual reasoning involves implicit intermediate steps with no clear methods for verification. Non-verbal reasoning is therefore challenging to model and, as a result, remains a fundamental limitation of current machine intelligence. Here we introduce GenVerOpt, a general framework that unifies generation, verification and optimisation into a reasoning pipeline for machines. By generating candidate solutions, verifying their correctness, and iteratively refining them, GenVerOpt enables per-sample optimisation rather than relying solely on dataset-level trends captured during model training. This process mirrors human problem-solving where multiple possibilities are imagined, evaluated, and refined until a correct solution emerges. Across diverse domains, GenVerOpt demonstrates capabilities beyond existing systems: it surpasses humans on abstract IQ puzzles, matches clinicians in prostate cancer segmentation, exceeds experts in liver vessel reconstruction and outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in tumour boundary alignment. These results show that machine reasoning can extend beyond language, establishing visual non-verbal reasoning as a foundation for more flexible and generalisable intelligence.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13925
Detecting communicative meaning in dialogue requires modeling not only lexical content but also the participant-role structures through which sentiment, emotion, politeness, and formality (SEPF) are expressed. Existing approaches rely on contextual language representations while leaving semantic roles implicit. We introduce a role-aware transformer architecture that maps the four SEPF dimensions to theory-grounded Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) configurations, incorporating these configurations directly into the transformer's self-attention mechanism. Role-aware attention models non-directional internal states (sentiment and emotion), while directional role-aware attention captures initiator-to-recipient relations for external cues (politeness and formality). The resulting role-aware representations are fused with contextual embeddings through a learned gate that adaptively weights how much role information each input contributes, rather than appending semantic roles as an auxiliary feature vector. Across four benchmark datasets, the framework yields statistically reliable gains over strong BERT-based baselines for emotion, politeness, and formality, with gains concentrated in theoretically predicted cases such as low-frequency, complex emotions and highly polite expressions; sentiment improvements are marginal and non-significant, suggesting that sentiment is conveyed more through lexical choice than participant-role structure. Additional evaluation on real-world data demonstrates that the framework improves both predictive performance and model traceability. These results demonstrate that linguistically grounded modifications to transformer self-attention improve the detection of communicative meaning, generalize beyond benchmark datasets to real-world mental-health data, and yield traceable, role-grounded explanations that extend beyond predictive performance to interpretability.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13797
Discourse particles subtly shape the flow of discourse by reflecting conversational context and interlocutor attitudes, often leaving the truth-conditional meaning untouched. They are also often polyfunctional, with distinct senses which partially overlap with other particles; for example, the exclusive use of English "just" and "only" ("John only/just drinks water"). Despite the frequency of these words in natural language, they have gone largely unstudied due to the subtle nature of their effects. We investigate LLM sensitivity to "just" and "only" in natural conversations using behavioral and mechanistic analyses. First, we find that LLMs and humans similarly prefer the presence of these particles in context, and both are more sensitive to "just" compared to "only". Second, when sampling from LLMs with and without these particles, we find LLMs consistently rate generations as more likely, given their source context, demonstrating their particle sensitivity. In both experiments, instruction tuning increases sensitivity. Finally, we localize particle-sensitive units within LLMs and find the overlap between "just" and "only" is asymmetric: "only" units transfer selectively to exclusive "just", while all "just" units transfer to "only" equally well regardless of sense, suggesting LLM lexical-level particle representations are partially organized by sense. We release our code, sense-labeled dialogue stimuli, and human preference annotations at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13794
Long-horizon terminal benchmarks measure whether an agent can sustain progress through extended workflows with process rewards, not only whether its final state passes a binary check. We present Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench 2.0 (LHTB 2.0), an extension of Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench that preserves its 46 original tasks while correcting task and evaluation-infrastructure defects and extending 31 tasks. LHTB 2.0 contains 77 tasks across 13 domains and eight task types. The extended tasks are produced through a systematic reconstruction-task pipeline. We start from a working scientific or engineering artifact, then use a parameterized reference implementation to generate multiple scenarios, reveal six as behavioral evidence, hold out three for evaluation, and use dense progress ladders to reward partial progress while preventing memorization of public outputs. We also extend the evaluation horizon from 90 minutes to three hours and record verifier checkpoints every 30 minutes, enabling direct measurement of sustained progress within a run. Across 1,145 scored model-task runs from 15 frontier models, GPT-6-astra leads with dense mean reward 0.69 and 37 tasks at R at least 0.95, followed by GPT-5.6-sol with dense mean reward 0.67 and 32 tasks at the same threshold. On the 30 reconstruction tasks, binary verifier scores average 0.221, whereas dense ladder scores average 0.653, showing that outcome-only evaluation discards substantial intermediate progress. LHTB 2.0 provides a broader, hardened, and process-aware testbed for studying reliable agent execution over hours.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14146
VeriContest is a benchmark of 1007 competitive-programming problems in Rust, each with a Verus specification, a judge-accepted solution, and a Verus proof. Its authors report that proof generation is the bottleneck for frontier models: given the specification and the code, the best model produces an accepted Verus proof for 13.95% of the problems on the first attempt. We report on solving the same proof-generation task with Rust-Prover, a verifier for Rust backed by Lean 4. The Verus specification and the Rust code are restated and translated into Lean, each specification becomes a theorem, and agents prove the theorems with Lean's kernel as the final check. All 1325 theorems of all 1007 problems were proved. 1259 of them were proved in one run of under 32 hours on Claude Opus 5.5, at a median of 3.2 minutes and $1.17 per proof, and 70% of them on the first iteration. The restated specifications were checked against the benchmark's test suites, and reviewed where no suite applies. None was wrong or weakened. The translated Lean programs were run on 21,413 of the benchmark's test cases and produced the same output as the Rust programs on every one. Across four Claude and four GPT models at five reasoning-effort settings, every current frontier model proves nearly all of a ten-theorem sample at every setting, and more effort raises the cost without raising the number of proofs. The cheapest Claude setting, Sonnet 5.5 at low effort, proves all of the 50 hardest theorems. We also rerun the benchmark's own Verus protocol with Claude Opus 5.5 on the 50 problems with the longest reference proofs. Opus 5.5 alone fails to prove one of them.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03994
Large language model (LLM) agents are rapidly improving on long-horizon scientific and olympiad tasks. Recent systems have produced a Lean-formalized resolution of the Navier--Stokes problem and autonomous solutions to four open questions in the ErdÅs Conjectures database. Yet neither system releases both its underlying model and complete inference stack. More broadly, a single agent session remains brittle on difficult problems: early errors can propagate, missing domain knowledge can stall progress, and apparent success can mask a misinterpretation or weakening of the original task. We introduce HOA (Humanize Olympiads Agent), an open, flow-level framework that coordinates multiple agent sessions through three complementary feedback channels. First, an independent reviewer evaluates each candidate and provides actionable feedback. Second, a structured wiki supplies task-specific knowledge that may be missing or unreliable in model pretraining. Third, a verifier checks generated Lean proofs against trusted challenge statements. With GPT-5.6 Sol, HOA achieves perfect scores on the IMO, IPhO, and IOI 2026, near-full marks on the IChO 2026 problem set, and solves all 672 problems (100%) on PutnamBench. On the Lean-Eval leaderboard, HOA ranks first, solving 251 of 304 problems (82.6%). We further evaluate HOA with open models. Using Kimi-K3, HOA achieves full scores on the IMO, IPhO, and IOI, and a gold-level score of 97.1% on the IChO. These results closely match the closed-source GPT-5.6 Sol + /Goal baseline on the IMO and IPhO, while exceeding it on the IChO and IOI, demonstrating that systematic feedback can help bridge substantial differences in base-model capability.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13632
Professional agents increasingly work through command-line interfaces and multiple tools over shared workspaces containing files, messages, and business applications. These environments create safety risks that are difficult to capture with attacks placed at a single, known read location. We introduce APEX-Harm, a benchmark for evaluating prompt and script injection against long-horizon agents performing finance, consulting, and legal tasks in large workspaces. Each task contains 115 to 328 files, together with email, calendar, chat, document, spreadsheet, PDF, and code-execution tools exposed through MCP servers. The benchmark includes six attack categories covering static and dynamic injections, task-specific script replacement, and attacker-provided generic scripts, and evaluates attack success, exposure, and task performance. We evaluate 12 frontier models on 180 task instances per model. Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 have the lowest overall attack success rates (8% and 20%), while task-specific script replacement and attacker-provided generic script attacks remain substantially more effective, averaging 81-84% and 73% attack success, respectively. Gemini 3.8 Flash achieves the highest mean task score (0.877) while still exhibiting a 33% attack success rate. These results show that completing the requested task is not sufficient evidence of safe behavior: an agent can produce a correct deliverable while also performing an unauthorized action in the workspace.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13623
Repository-level issue-resolution benchmarks such as SWE-bench evaluate submitted patches primarily based on whether they pass the correctness tests, leaving the runtime performance of different test-passing patches largely unexplored. Evaluating patch performance is essential but challenging since designing performance workloads for each benchmark instance is costly. However, these benchmarks already provide a natural candidate: the built-in \emph{FAIL\_TO\_PASS} (F2P) tests, which exercise the behavior affected by the issue fix. We therefore investigate whether the provided F2P tests can be repurposed to evaluate patch performance. Overall, we choose four frontier models, Claude Opus~5, GPT~5.6, DeepSeek V4 Pro, and Qwen~3.8 Max, paired with SWE-agent to resolve the pre-filtered measurable corpus from verified splits of SWE-bench and SWE-bench-Live, yielding 262 cases with at least two different correct solutions, including the developer ground-truth patch. We then measure each solution's runtime performance in instruction count and wall-clock time on the native F2P test, and use Welch ANOVA instead of the RSD proposed in prior work as a more robust statistical discrimination criterion. We find that this methodology exhibits notable discrimination capability in runtime performance and identifies performance differences among patches in almost half of the instances. Our empirical study shows that the runtime performance of generated patches is independent of the issue resolution rate of LLMs, with nearly reversed model rankings. The case study also shows that the performance analysis reveals architectural regression in some patches that the correctness evaluation overlooked. These findings suggest that resolution rate does not adequately characterize LLMs' capability for repository-level issue resolution, motivating future evaluations to consider patch performance alongside it.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13563
Infographic generation challenges text-to-image models because a single image must satisfy numerous visual, textual, and semantic constraints. Iterative agentic refinement with a multimodal verifier is a natural remedy, but existing methods face a scale mismatch: local edits cannot correct global composition errors, while full regeneration may destroy already-correct regions. We introduce Stride, a constraint-grounded multi-agent framework that treats refinement over any frozen generator as a history-aware evolution strategy. Stride separates constraint evaluation - whether each requirement is satisfied - from visual grounding - where and how it is violated. It then routes global revisions to a composer subagent and local corrections to a retoucher subagent. Each subagent conducts internal planning and generates multiple candidates, while Stride accepts a candidate only when it improves the verifier score, reducing regression across iterations. Because stochastic generators and imperfect verifiers make any single step unreliable, it is this combination of scale-aware routing, per-step redundancy, and monotonic acceptance that yields stable improvement across iterations. With fully open-weight generator-verifier systems, Stride outperforms proprietary systems including Nano-Banana-2.0 and Seedream-5.0-Pro on BizGenEval, matches GPT-Image-2.0 and surpasses Seedream-5.0-Pro on IGenBench, and achieves a new state-of-the-art score on WISE, while substantially outperforming existing agentic methods across all evaluated benchmarks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13502
Designing tool-integrated reasoning agent systems for complex chemical tasks remains a fundamental challenge. Although recent chemical agents have demonstrated promising performance through the integration of external tools, they are still built on the autoregressive paradigm, which is inherently constrained by causal attention and left-to-right generation. As a result, they often struggle with bidirectional molecular understanding, global coordinated tool planning and multi-source evidence integration. To address this challenge, we introduce ChemDiffAgent, the first masked diffusion language agent for tool-integrated chemical reasoning. It reformulates chemical reasoning as iterative denoising over interleaved reasoning and tool-use trajectories, enabling tool-use decisions to be jointly determined under full-trajectory context and thereby better aligning the agent's decision boundary with its knowledge boundary. We further analyze how this paradigm benefits agentic reasoning through harder infilling subproblems during training and flexible arbitrary-order decoding during inference. Then we develop a two-stage post-training framework, comprising agentic supervised fine-tuning and variance-reduced preference optimization, to enhance tool-use and reasoning capabilities. We also construct a comprehensive benchmark covering six chemistry tasks across both single-turn and multi-turn tool-use scenarios. Under matched budgets and evaluation, ChemDiffAgent consistently outperforms autoregressive agents, achieving an overall improvement of approximately 20%. Notably, our 8B model achieves performance comparable to, in some cases surpassing, significantly larger frontier models, such as GPT 5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. Code is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13330
Agentic workloads resend long contexts that barely change between calls. Prefix caching now skips most of their prefill, yet every request must still be tokenized in full before the cache can even be consulted. Tokenization, a CPU stage long treated as negligible, becomes the largest part of time-to-first-token (TTFT), and a frontend that tokenizes for a whole GPU fleet limits how many GPUs it can feed. We present GraphTok, a GPU tokenizer that runs the entire encoding pipeline, from pre-tokenization through byte-pair encoding (BPE) merging to token-ID assembly, as one replayable CUDA graph. GraphTok reproduces the reference token IDs bit-for-bit on GPT-2, Llama 3, Qwen 2.5, DeepSeek-V3, and Gemma 3, hands short inputs to a CPU engine where the GPU cannot win, and plugs into unmodified vLLM and NVIDIA Dynamo. GraphTok encodes one million GPT-2 tokens in 1.7-3.2 ms including data transfers, and on Llama 3 it is 4.7-6.0x faster than gigatoken, the strongest CPU tokenizer. On TokTier's own single-request benchmark, it is 2.6-3.9x faster than gigatoken and up to 18.1x faster than TokTier. In vLLM with a cached prefix, it lowers mean TTFT by 2.1-2.4x. The largest gain is capacity. Within a 2 s P99 target, one Dynamo frontend with GraphTok sustains 518 requests/s of 121k-token traffic, the busiest-hour load of 56 GPUs, against 296 with gigatoken and 18.5 with the default tokenizer. Across 121k to one million tokens, this is 1.75-2.5x the load gigatoken sustains, with a P99 up to 64x lower where gigatoken's tail breaks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13325
LLM judges are increasingly deployed as panels, and disagreement among panel members is often read as a symptom of an unclear rubric. We test a label-free procedure that turns this disagreement into rubric repairs. The procedure decomposes each rubric into sub-criteria, ranks them by cross-judge disagreement on a development split, and has an editor model rewrite only the most contested ones. An additional stage that moves text-checkable sub-criteria to deterministic checkers transferred none in our evaluation. Human labels are never used to select or edit clauses; they are used only to evaluate the outcome. We pre-specified four hypotheses in a version-controlled protocol and evaluated six rubric conditions with a panel of five judges from three providers on SummEval, the HealthBench meta-evaluation, and USR Topical-Chat, for a total of 129,770 judge requests, excluding retries. On SummEval, the procedure raised inter-judge Krippendorff's $\alpha$ by 0.069 (95% CI 0.046 to 0.092) over the original rubric and by 0.074 over a control that applied the same edits to an equal number of randomly chosen clauses that were not selected. Agreement with expert ratings showed no detectable change (Kendall $\tau$ difference -0.007, 95% CI -0.037 to 0.021). On HealthBench and USR, neither inter-judge agreement nor human agreement met the preregistered effect criteria. In a preregistered secondary comparison, human agreement after editing the contested clauses was lower than after editing the control clauses on all three datasets in point estimate, although no interval excluded zero. Selecting clauses by disagreement makes judges agree with each other more than editing arbitrary clauses does, but in our setting the added consensus did not bring the judges closer to human annotators. We will release code, frozen rubrics, item identifiers, and judge scores.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13303
Expressive humanoid interaction requires speech, facial animation, and body gestures to form a coherent response. However, many full-body humanoid robots produce speech and gestures without a visually expressive face, while talking-face animation and robot gesture generation are typically developed separately. We present Talk, Render, Act (TRABot), an agent-based framework comprising specialized agents for motion-atom construction, dialogue generation, motion planning, and facial animation. First, to produce natural and semantically meaningful gestures, we construct Robot-Ready Semantic Motion Atoms by segmenting long-form, G1-retargeted BEAT2 motion into units with natural gesture boundaries, human-verified communicative functions, and feasible trajectories. Second, to preserve semantic order and coordinate body motion with the spoken response, we introduce a Semantic-Conditioned Compositional Planner. Given an ordered semantic function sequence and an estimated response duration, the planner selects approved atoms to realize the longest feasible action sequence while accounting for transitions and neutral recovery. Finally, we deploy a Streaming Face-Speech-Body Integration system on a physical G1 humanoid, combining streaming dialogue audio, audio-driven facial animation, and semantically planned body motion in a unified real-time interaction loop. Quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate that TRAbot achieves the best overall performance among all compared conditions in terms of naturalness, expressiveness, and multimodal coherence.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.06153
In this work, we revisit the classic Les Misérables benchmark network from the perspective of social communication. Using the 1998 film adaptation of the novel, we construct the publicly available Les Misérables Dialogue temporal text network, which explicitly distinguishes speakers, addressees, and other recipients of each utterance, along with its content and timing. Using the ten social dimensions model, we also derive multilayer network representations of the network, in which layers correspond to distinct relational dimensions. Beyond the network dataset, this work offers a general methodology for building similarly rich communication datasets from similar narrative sources.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13148
Question answering over large heterogeneous document collections requires first finding the right passages and then reading them, yet current retrieval-augmented agents give one model both kinds of tools and let it schedule itself. We present KnowForge, a pipeline separated by job: a hybrid-retrieval knowledge-point index; a Locator agent that can only search; a code-scheduled bridge judge that forces the missing second hop; a typed, size-bounded evidence pool that merges every search's ranking; a Deep Reader agent that can only read text, images and tables; and a synthesizer with a format checker. With a self-hosted Qwen3.6-35B-A3B (3B active), KnowForge reaches F1 47.5 on the full open-domain M3DocVQA (2,441 questions, 3,368 PDFs), +11.0 over the published M3DocRAG system and +7.1 over one-shot retrieve-and-answer on the same index and model, and 53.5 with DeepSeek-V4-Flash. On MultiHop-RAG it reaches 73.5 accuracy, above the strongest published RAG and GraphRAG results (71.2); on the single-document MMLongBench-Doc it lifts the same model from 34.8 to 47.0, level with GPT-4o reading page images (46.3). Per-job ablations on the full benchmarks attribute the gain: the Deep Reader is worth 3.8, 9.8 and 0 points on the three corpora, tracking how visual each is; merging both agents into one with all tools and twice the rounds loses 1.9 F1 because it keeps searching instead of reading; a round-budget sweep shows a step at four Locator rounds and a plateau beyond; query latency scales with model calls rather than corpus size. We serve the three indexed benchmarks as read-only knowledge bases (free registration) and release all prompts and the runner code: this https URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13128
Cyberbullying is a growing concern in online communities, yet existing Bengali corpora remain limited in contextual information, annotation transparency, scale, accessibility, and support for multidimensional analysis, thereby hindering robust detection and comprehensive study of harasser behaviors and networks. To address these gaps, we introduce the Bengali Contextual and Diverse Cyberbullying (\textit{BenCoDiC}) corpus, a publicly available contextual cyberbullying resource for Bengali political news discourse comprising 50,250 textual instances collected from 100 YouTube videos and their associated discussions. The corpus preserves caption--comment--reply relationships and is organized through a nine-dimensional star schema covering users, videos, textual content, context, time, engagement, political parties, target identities, and language categories. Five AI chatbots were initially evaluated for annotation but did not meet the predefined reliability criterion. Consequently, a two-tier human annotation process with expert verification was adopted, achieving Fleiss' $\kappa=0.86$ and Krippendorff's $\alpha=0.86$. Statistical analyses characterize the corpus, while transformer-based experiments show that incorporating conversational context yields modest but consistent improvements over isolated-text classification. \textit{BenCoDiC} supports context-aware cyberbullying detection and perpetrator-oriented behavioral and network analysis. The corpus is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13121
Visual agents for symbolic graphics reasoning depend on executable world representations, yet continued improvement remains bottlenecked by ambiguous supervision from final renders. Recent agentic systems refine scenes through repeated interaction, but they lack mechanisms to recursively extract actionable evidence from execution traces, overlooking which proposed symbolic edits survived, disappeared, or interfered during program execution. To address this, we propose VETR (Verified Execution Trajectories for Refinement), a framework that enables agentic recursive self-improvement over executable world representations for symbolic graphics reasoning. Within each task, VETR retains aligned program/render records with bounded runtime observations and introduces an execution refiner that compiles observed writes and state changes into constrained alternative programs. The refiner validates their endpoints and preservation conditions against captured runtime state; the ordinary visual verifier then assesses goal relevance. Repair construction makes no additional language-model calls, but can require additional executions. Evaluations on BlenderGym (280 tasks) and BlenderBench (27 released tasks) with GPT-5.6-luna and Qwen3.8-27B show that VETR consistently outperforms existing refinement strategies, including BlenderAlchemy and VIGA. Controlled ablations evaluate the contributions of execution refinement and role-asymmetric evidence organization under fixed generator-interaction caps.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13098
Self-evolving agents are increasingly used to improve language model systems without human intervention through either weight updates or harness improvements. Existing approaches typically pursue these directions separately: some methods update model weights using self-generated experience, while others rewrite the harness that defines how an agent uses prompts, tools, context, and execution feedback. However, these approaches overlook the relationship between model weights and the agent harness. To connect these processes and ensure effective and smooth agent self-evolving, we propose Evo$^2$, a framework for weight-harness co-evolution. For harness updates, we design a unified dual-role pipeline that a single policy serves as both a Proposer, which writes harness edits, and a Reflector, which diagnoses their effects and guides revision. For weight updates, harness modifications and their execution outcomes guide the training of both the Proposer and the Reflector. We further develop EvoTIDE, a training pipeline that recovers usable trajectories through edit extraction and prefix continuation, then combines SFT with interleaved GRPO across the two roles. Extensive experiments across three coding benchmarks demonstrate that Evo$^2$ significantly outperforms existing self-evolution methods. It achieves 82.1% on Polyglot and 48.3% on SWE-bench Verified, compared with 62.6% and 41.0% for the strongest baseline, respectively. We also show that the evolved harnesses transfer to different tasks without further evolution and rank first in cross-benchmark evaluations. Our dual-role harness improvement framework is also able to extend to self-evolution with proprietary models, improving a GPT-5-mini agent's performance from 24.4% to 48.3%. These results demonstrate the applicability of the framework Evo$^2$ across domains and its broad transferability across models and tasks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13025
We investigate whether language models contain internal components that contribute to representing narrativity, the degree to which a text exhibits narrative properties. Across GPT-2-Small, Gemma-2-2B, and Llama-3.1-8B, we identify attention heads, MLP neurons, and sparse autoencoder features whose activations correlate with narrativity. Ablating selected neuron and feature sets increases next-token prediction loss more for high-narrativity than for low-narrativity texts, and reduces the narrativity of open-ended generations. On downstream benchmarks, the largest effects occur in story completion and narrative question answering, although they vary across models and languages; results on confabulation and hallucination benchmarks are mixed. These findings provide causal evidence that selected sets of narrative-associated components contribute to model behaviour, while their internal organisation, relation to narrative theory, and broader functions remain open questions.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12989
If a second text corpus were collected from the same population, how much would a predictor's outputs change? We study this question for masked-text reconstruction using a smoothed predictor built from nearby token-pair counts and evaluated over the full 50,257-token GPT-2 vocabulary. Treating each source document as one observation, we derive a first-order formula for the expected disagreement between predictors fitted to two independent corpora. The formula accounts for variable document length, random context counts, and correlations across token offsets, and it can be evaluated from a separate reference corpus without access to either target corpus. On TinyStories, WikiText-103, and CNN/DailyMail, growing each corpus from 512 to 2,048 chunks of 64 tokens lowers disagreement by only 5--40\%, far short of the 75\% implied by $1/n$ scaling. The forecast tracks this slow decline, which we trace to smoothing of rarely seen contexts. Forecast accuracy depends less on how these correlations are modeled than on the size of the reference corpus: small references systematically underpredict disagreement. A source-split jackknife that uses only reference data reduces this calibration error by 57--59\%. After this correction, a simpler smoothed-multinomial approximation is most accurate when the reference corpus is smaller than the target corpus, and a nonlinear source bootstrap is most accurate when it is larger. Finally, small masked diffusion language models trained on the same corpora show that the count-based forecasts partly identify which inputs are most sensitive to the corpus, but miss the neural models' much faster decline in disagreement.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12987