Abstract
Recent work reports that the distribution verbalized directly in the output text aligns far better with human opinion distributions than the next-token log-probability distribution of LLMs. However, the verbalized distribution reflects what LLMs know about a group's opinions (knowledge distribution), while what they actually output at deployment is governed by their log-probability distribution (behavior distribution). We find that when prompting LLMs to predict the opinion of a specific group, the most likely answer under the verbalized distribution differs from that under the log-probability distribution for 37% of World Values Survey questions, averaged over three LLMs. Thus, LLMs' knowledge does not match their behavior. This matters for evaluation: a verbalized distribution can score well against a group while its most likely answer is one the model never outputs, so the score no longer describes the model. The alignment scores for these two distributions reflect only the model's behavior or its knowledge, separately. We therefore propose a learnable combination of the two distributions that follows the most likely answer of the behavior distribution while preserving the shape of the knowledge distribution, with a single hyperparameter trading off behavioral fidelity against distribution quality. Our experiments on three opinion survey datasets and six models show that the balanced distribution improves behavioral consistency over the verbalized distribution from 71.6% to 95.6% on average, while the total variation distance to the human opinion distributions rises only slightly from 28.8% to 33.8%, and it remains effective under temperature scaling and cross-dataset settings.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27648
