Abstract
As AI-generated content becomes commoditized, economic value increasingly shifts from final artifacts to the upstream expertise used to specify inputs that steer LLM generation. Yet organizations lack methods for valuing this expertise and identifying which individual skills or configurations causally improve performance. This study examines generative marketing, where structured expert labels serve as skill primitives conditioning LLM-generated advertisements. Estimating their causal effects is difficult because outcomes reflect stochastic LLM mediation, high-dimensional label interactions, and multimodal confounding. This study proposes D-VAE (Deconfounder Variational Autoencoder), a counterfactual-inference framework integrating a multi-treatment deconfounder with causal representation learning. D-VAE recovers causally disentangled expert-labeling logic and derives PAC-based bounds on omitted-variable bias from single-treatment confounders. Applied to 29,177 foundation-makeup ad creatives, D-VAE outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks. A field experiment shows that recommended configurations increase engagement by 32.7% and perform statistically indistinguishably from human experts, while a simulation study confirms causal attribution under complex confounding and treatment interactions. Overall, the study shifts value assessment from AI-generated products to skills, providing a foundation for pricing and optimizing AI-augmented skill portfolios.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23025
