Abstract
Multimodal trajectory prediction improves behavioral coverage in end-to-end autonomous driving, but existing methods remain limited by sparse scene representations. Incomplete evidence leads to low-quality candidate generation and unreliable ranking among geometrically similar trajectories. On a register-based baseline, bad and poor candidates constitute 19.74% of the candidate set, while the oracle-best candidate ranks only 33.9th on average. We propose RRDrive, which introduces risk-aware occupancy as a dense, temporally aligned, and trajectory-queryable representation. Its global structure guides high-quality multimodal generation, while candidate-conditioned risk queries support fine-grained selection. We further construct RiskOcc4D-NAVSIM with automatic risk annotations. RRDrive achieves a selected-trajectory PDMS of 0.951, representing a 1.5% relative improvement over the baseline (0.937), and improves the average candidate PDMS by 7.7%. In challenging scenes, it improves candidate PDMS by 30.2% and increases the Spearman correlation among good candidates by 0.41, from 0.26 to 0.67. To move beyond this oracle setting, we further develop an external RiskOcc predictor, a perception module that estimates risk-aware occupancy directly from sensor inputs. The competitive performance validates the representation's feasibility.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.21486
