RNN
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A Confidence-Aware Multimodal Fusion Framework for Industrial Human-Robot Collaboration
2026-09-09 15:36:22Xinyu Liu, Qiqi Dong, Boya Jia, Yi Zhang, Binbin LianAbstract
A confidence-aware multimodal fusion framework (CAMF) is proposed to realize reliable human intention prediction for industrial human-robot collaboration. This framework fuses four heterogeneous modalities including object 6D pose, gaze, skeletal motion and IMU-based hand motion. It embeds a confidence-trend-driven dynamic fusion mechanism into BiLSTM to adaptively balance bidirectional temporal features according to real-time modality reliability. A confidence-guided balanced learning strategy combined with a confidence freezing mechanism is further adopted to adjust network gradients dynamically, suppress noise from low-quality modalities and mitigate cross-modal learning bias. A physical platform based on the UR3 collaborative robot is built for experimental validation. Comparative results show that the proposed method reaches an intention recognition accuracy of 91.86% and outperforms existing multimodal fusion approaches in overall performance and stability. It also maintains satisfactory accuracy under low light and partial occlusion interference. In practical assembly tasks, the framework enables proactive and stable human-robot cooperation with strong environmental adaptability.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10339
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RiLM: Parameter-Efficient Language Modeling via Geodesic Decoding
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Language models under one million parameters matter for edge deployment, domain adaptation, and reproducible research, yet a two-layer LSTM or Transformer at embedding width d = 128 still spends roughly one third of its capacity on the output matrix W_out in R^(d x |V|). We propose Riemannian Language Models (RiLM), which remove that layer entirely: context unfolds as a trajectory on a Riemannian manifold, and next-token probabilities arise from squared geodesic distance between the current state and vocabulary embeddings. The same embedding map serves input and output -- decoding is geometry. We instantiate the framework on flat R^d (Flat RiLM) and the Poincare ball H^d (HypRiLM) with a shared MLP composition map phi (~290k parameters, d = 128, |V| = 2000). Across five seeds on WikiText-2, HypRiLM reaches 54.2 +/- 0.2 validation perplexity versus 87.6 +/- 0.6 for Flat RiLM; tied and matched LSTM, Transformer, and SSM controls remain at 113-147 PPL on WT-2 -- HypRiLM leads by roughly 2x over the strongest tied recurrent baseline (SSM, 113.0 +/- 3.8). Penn Treebank and a 10k-vocabulary stress test confirm that geodesic decoding transfers across corpora and larger |V|, while hyperbolic curvature helps selectively. We also characterize boundary collapse in naive hyperbolic recurrence and show how Mobius stabilization restores trainability. Claims are scoped to controlled small-model comparisons, not full-vocabulary state of the art.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10305
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StreamAlign: Streaming Text-Aligned Speech Tokenization
2026-09-09 05:03:12Kang-wook Kim, Jinyoung Park, Jinsoo Kim, Sehun Lee, Sang Hoon Woo, Gunhee KimAbstract
Text-aligned speech tokenization methods have emerged to better align speech tokens with LLM token spaces, enabling more effective utilization of pretrained LLMs. However, they rely on offline automatic speech recognition (ASR), leading to two key limitations: (i) the need for complete utterances before tokenization, precluding real-time streaming, and (ii) vocabulary mismatch between ASR and LLMs, which reduces acoustic granularity from the subword to the word level. We introduce StreamAlign, a text-aligned speech tokenization framework that enables streaming tokenization for real-time speech-text joint modeling. StreamAlign performs online speech-text alignment by combining character-level RNN-Transducer alignment with word-level ASR guidance, mitigating ASR-LLM vocabulary mismatch while preserving recognition accuracy. A proactive word boundary classifier anticipates word completion at chunk boundaries, reducing tokenization latency from 560 ms to 270 ms. On LibriSpeech, StreamAlign achieves the lowest WER and highest UTMOS among evaluated tokenizers. Furthermore, StreamAlign-SLM, a spoken language model trained on StreamAlign units, outperforms other end-to-end spoken language models in speech continuation while achieving the strongest overall consistency on SALMon and spoken StoryCloze.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09719
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Quantile-Led Feature Extraction for Multi-Horizon Predictive Maintenance in Industrial Manufacturing Systems
2026-09-07 14:13:21David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na HelianAbstract
In data-driven predictive maintenance (PdM), feature extraction is usually treated as fixed preprocessing: a descriptor set is chosen once and reused while the downstream model or forecasting horizon changes. This paper isolates the representation-learning stage and presents a quantile-led feature-extraction framework based on a dual-stage MLP-QRNN hierarchy. QRNN1 learns a broad ten-quantile conditional distribution for each sensor channel, while skip-connected QRNN2 refines a retained mid-tail quantile set into compact, channel-resolved, distribution-aware features. A fixed thirteen-pipeline ablation spans 1-hour, 70-hour, and 30-day regimes across 72 machines in 9 industrial facilities, with the downstream temporal classifier held fixed within each regime. Increasing the retained mid-tail set from two to four quantiles improves 30- and 60-minute F1-score, reaching 75.92% and 72.44% with attention enabled. The results also show that representations do not transfer reliably beyond their design horizon unless feature capacity, temporal embedding, activation strategy, and sensor breadth are scaled with the forecasting task. The unmodified short-horizon extractor falls to 42.90% F1 at 70 hours, whereas horizon-conditioned extractors reach 60.38% at 70 hours and 79.97% at 30 days. The framework therefore supports treating PdM feature extraction as a horizon-dependent representational stage rather than fixed preprocessing.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07533
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EEG-Driven Decoding Framework for Passenger Hazard Perception in Highly Automated Vehicles
2026-09-07 07:22:04Yingkai Yang, Ashton Yu Xuan Tan, Bowen Li, Xiaorong Gao, Sifa Zheng, Jianqiang Wang, Xinyu Gu, Yang Zhao, Yuxin Zhang, Sharon X. Huang, Tania Stathaki, Jun Li, Hong WangAbstract
Reliable risk assessment remains a central challenge for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). Despite advances in automation, passenger cognition provides a non-intrusive auxiliary signal that improves both objective and perceived safety without requiring active human intervention. We introduce an Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) that decodes passenger neural responses for both Risk Prediction (RP) and Danger Identification (DI), explicitly modeling humans as passengers to match real-world AV use. To achieve this, we propose the Passenger Cognitive Model (PCM), Risk-aware Sequential Labeling (RSL), and the Passenger EEG Decoding Strategy (PEDS), which integrates a 3D Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (3D-CRNN) model for joint EEG decoding. Experimental results show that 3D-CRNN achieves a Balanced Accuracy (BA) of $95.3\% \pm 2.7\%$ in RP and improves single-subject DI from $80.9\% \pm 3.9\%$ to $85.0\% \pm 3.2\%$ with RSL. Event-wise analyses further show that 3D-CRNN consistently outperforms other models across different event types in RP and DI. In generalization experiments, 3D-CRNN achieves $77.0\% \pm 5.3\%$ BA in cross-session DI and $77.4\% \pm 1.1\%$ BA on seen subjects in cross-subject evaluation, while maintaining a $64.9\% \pm 8.5\%$ BA on unseen subjects, demonstrating promising generalizability and transferability across both intra-subject and inter-subject variability. These findings establish an Electroencephalogram (EEG) decoding framework for AV passenger hazard perception and suggest that passenger cognitive signals can provide auxiliary supervision for future AV decision-making and Safety of the Intended Functionality (SOTIF) support.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07128
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SIDE: Sensor Impersonation Detection at the Edge via Sequence Prediction
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Some low-cost Internet of Things (IoT) sensor deployments lack device-level source authentication, leaving them vulnerable to impersonation or injected sensor readings. We present a lightweight approach to sensor impersonation detection in a small proof-of-concept study. We formulate detection as a sequence-prediction problem. A model with three LSTM layers and two fully connected layers is trained only on univariate temperature readings from a genuine sensor, and a window of readings is flagged when its mean absolute prediction error exceeds the mean genuine error by more than six standard deviations. The model is converted to TensorFlow Lite and deployed on an Arduino Nano 33 BLE in three variants, non-quantized (554 KB), 16-bit weight quantized (298.5 KB), and 8-bit weight quantized (185 KB). On a controlled testbed with the impostor sensor placed in a hotter outdoor location, the three variants reached detection accuracies of 99.980%, 99.972%, and 98.206%, and each flagged the change point when a test sequence switched from genuine to impostor data. Quantization made the model smaller but slower in our measurements. The genuine and impostor distributions were well separated, so these results show detection of a controlled distribution shift and should not be read as evidence of general device authentication.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06271
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OpenDiscoveryTrace: Process Traces for Evaluating AI Scientist Workflows
2026-09-05 12:16:47Aayam Bansal, Keertan BalajiAbstract
Existing benchmarks for autonomous AI scientists evaluate only final outputs---generated code, hypotheses, or papers---yet discard the reasoning process by which those outputs were obtained. This makes it impossible to audit scientific methodology, diagnose failure modes, or distinguish systematic reasoning from fortunate guessing. We present \textbf{OpenDiscoveryTrace}, a public dataset of 558 complete AI scientific agent trajectories that captures how models reason, not just what they produce. Each trajectory records a structured 9-field-per-step trace---including thoughts, tool calls, observations, errors, revision triggers, and self-reported confidence---as models execute 124 scientific tasks spanning drug discovery, materials science, genomics, and scientific literature analysis. The dataset covers seven models: three frontier models (GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.6, and Gemini 3.1 Pro; 124 trajectories each, fully balanced across domains and difficulty levels) and four open-weight models (Qwen2.5-7B, Mistral-7B-v0.3, Phi-3.5-mini, and Qwen2.5-1.5B; 30 each), plus 60 live-retrieval variant trajectories. Pilot analysis on 363 LLM-judged trajectories reveals that process traces expose behavioral differences invisible to output-only evaluation: all three frontier models achieve comparable success rates (84--89%), yet Claude Opus 4.6 produces 30$\times$ more errors than GPT-5.4 (2.5 vs. 0.08 per trajectory, $p < 0.0001$, Cliff's $\delta = 0.613$), with qualitatively different error profiles---66.7% tool misuse for Claude versus 83.6% reasoning errors for GPT-5.4. We define five benchmark tasks with baselines from logistic regression, random forests, LSTMs, and Transformer models. The dataset, trace schema, agent harness, and benchmark definitions are publicly available under CC BY 4.0 to support research on process-level evaluation, scientific agent auditing, and AI governance.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09203
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Development of a Humanoid Robot Prototype for Multimodal Human-Robot Interaction
2026-09-04 17:06:47Thang Tran Viet, Thanh Nguyen Canh, Huy Uong Gia, Phuc Dinh Van, Son Tran Duc, Ngoc Minh Do, Xiem HoangVanAbstract
Human-robot interaction (HRI) enables intuitive and intelligent collaboration between humans and robots in real-world environments. This paper introduces a humanoid robot prototype designed as a flexible testbed for developing and integrating artificial intelligence (AI) modules in HRI tasks. The system features a 12 degree-of-freedom (DOFs) dual-arm mechanism and a 2 DOFs head with an expressive LCD screen to express facial emotions. All hardware components are controlled by a custom-designed controller board with real-time AI processing supported by an onboard Jetson module. The system incorporates three AI modules: (1) gesture recognition using MediaPipe Pose and an LSTM classifier, (2) object detection with YOLO and 3D localization, and (3) voice-command processing through speech recognition and large language model(LLM)-based semantic parsing. The platform is validated through experiments on positioning accuracy, with results showing average manipulation errors of approximately 1.83 cm. To demonstrate its versatility, experimental results show over 90% task accuracy, with gesture recognition reaching 96%, speech recognition reaching 92%. The results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed system as a reproducible and accessible humanoid platform for research and prototyping in HRI.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.05361
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MZ-Rain: Moisture-Budget-Guided Zero-Inflated Model for Station-Level Precipitation Nowcasting
2026-09-04 08:24:52Yifang Zhang, Shengwu Xiong, Henan Wang, Wenjie Yin, Yuqiang Zhang, Chen Zhou, Hua Chen, Qile Zhao, Pengfei DuanAbstract
Accurate station-level precipitation nowcasting is critical for agriculture, water resource management, and disaster prevention, which typically is formulated as a time series forecasting problem. However, conventional time-series modeling techniques face two major challenges in addressing station-level precipitation nowcasting: (1) Lack of Physics-Guided Modeling}, where meteorological variables are treated as a homogeneous set without accounting for their distinct roles in precipitation formation, leads to predictions that deviate from the physical processes governing precipitation. (2) Severe zero inflation in precipitation, where dry intervals dominate the dataset, obscuring meaningful precipitation patterns and complicating the predictive modeling. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{MZ-Rain}, a moisture-budget-guided zero-inflated sLSTM framework for station-level precipitation nowcasting. Guided by the moisture budget equation, MZ-Rain decomposes the precipitation formation process into process-specific pathways corresponding to moisture storage, moisture transport, surface evaporation, and precipitation persistence, and captures their temporal evolution through dedicated sLSTM branches. To account for the zero-inflated nature of precipitation, MZ-Rain introduces an adaptive Tweedie modeling strategy that adaptively modulates the rainfall mean while jointly learning precipitation occurrence as an auxiliary task, enabling the model to better balance dry-wet discrimination and quantitative precipitation estimation. Extensive experiments across diverse geographical and climatic regimes demonstrate that MZ-Rain consistently outperforms strong baselines on multiple evaluation metrics, including CSI, FAR, MSE, and MAE. In particular, the model exhibits superior skill in forecasting heavy precipitation events, while benefiting from physically grounded process modeling.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04864
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Long Horizon Transformer Quantile Fault Prediction for Multi Site Industrial Predictive Maintenance
2026-09-04 07:57:33David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na HelianAbstract
Long-horizon predictive maintenance requires models to distinguish slowly evolving degradation from normal operating-regime variation over planning windows measured in days rather than hours. This paper evaluates whether an explicit conditional-quantile representation provides an informative classifier interface for this problem. The proposed TQRNN30d framework combines a dual-stage quantile regression neural network (QRNN) feature extractor with a multi-stream temporal fusion classifier. Each hourly word of 81-channel machine behaviour is mapped to a 324-dimensional quantile-state representation, and 720 ordered hourly words form the 30-day document supplied to the long-horizon model. The classifier fuses quantile states with dynamic covariates, channel-level static metadata, and a 168-hour latent-history stream using gated residual processing, causal recurrent encoding, and metadata-conditioned cross-modal attention. A bounded instability-aware signal derived from sustained one-word-ahead prediction-error divergence provides auxiliary memory modulation at the longest horizon. Evaluation uses a machine-disjoint 43/14/15 train/validation/test allocation across 72 machines in nine manufacturing facilities. At 30 days, TQRNN30d achieves 79.97% F1, 80.18% recall, 81.82% precision, 82.39% accuracy, and 0.820 ROC-AUC. It leads all 18 evaluated baselines at the 7-, 14-, and 30-day fixed-threshold comparisons, with the largest F1 advantage at 14 days. The results support held-out-machine performance within the observed homogeneous nine-facility fleet, but do not establish unseen-site, cross-equipment, or cross-sector generalisation.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04840
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Predicting Spatiotemporal Mobile Sensing-Based PM2.5 Concentrations Using Low-Rank Adapted Spatially Attentive Graph Neural Network
2026-09-04 03:50:32Om Chiddarwar, Priyanka Mandal, Praveen Kumar Chandaliya, Shriniwas ArkatkarAbstract
Urban air quality can vary significantly along transit corridors, necessitating high-resolution monitoring. This work introduces a novel mobile-sensing dataset from Surat, Gujarat, India, comprising PM$*{2.5}$ concentrations, meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction), and land-use features. To represent the spatiotemporal data as a graph, two node-definition strategies were used: (i) uniform segmentation (200--400~m intervals) and (ii) DBSCAN clustering to adaptively group dense observations. For each node, rolling mean and standard deviation of meteorological variables were computed. To model this high-dimensional data, we propose a SA-GNN for fine-grained, short-term PM$*{2.5}$ forecasting and hotspot identification. We compared SA-GNN with LSTM, RNN, GRU, and ANN models. These models performed well on low-resolution data but had difficulty capturing rapidly changing patterns in urban air quality. SA-GNN employs cluster-specific GRUs to capture localized temporal dependencies and a Graph Attention Network to learn spatial heterogeneity. This hybrid architecture effectively models rapid fluctuations and complex spatial interactions. On our dataset, SA-GNN achieved $R^2 = 0.95$, RMSE $= 6.8$, and MAE $= 4.2~\si{\micro\gram\per\meter\cubed}$, outperforming all baseline models. Combining spatial clustering with adaptive attention significantly improves forecasting, enabling real-time, fine-grained monitoring and supporting personalized exposure tracking and timely alerts for healthier cities.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04693
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Enhancing Multimodal Emotion Recognition via Multi-Feature Encoding and Attention-Based Fusion
2026-09-04 03:40:16Xu Lin, Ke Wang, Hui Kang, Xinying WangAbstract
Multimodal emotion recognition has attracted growing interest due to its importance in human-computer interaction, remote education, and healthcare. This paper proposes a novel multimodal emotion recognition framework that integrates rich audio and visual feature extraction with an attention-based fusion strategy. For audio, we extract three complementary feature types: semantic embeddings from Wav2Vec2, MFCC features, and statistical acoustic descriptors such as pitch, energy, and rhythm. These are aligned and fused via a BiLSTM to capture temporal dependencies. For video, we propose a ResNet50-BiLSTM architecture that combines deep residual learning and sequential modeling to extract expressive spatiotemporal features from facial sequences. To enhance multimodal synergy, we introduce a feature-level fusion mechanism based on multi-head attention, allowing the model to adaptively weigh contributions across modalities. Experiments conducted on the MELD and IEMOCAP datasets demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms baselines in both accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, ablation studies show that the attention-based fusion strategy significantly improves performance in unbalanced data settings. Our findings suggest that the proposed framework effectively captures diverse emotional cues from speech and visual expressions, and offers a practical and generalizable approach for real-world multimodal emotion recognition tasks.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04690
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When Quantization Breaks Memory: Recurrent-State Write-Back in Low-Precision Temporal Inference
2026-09-03 21:23:35Ismail Erbas, Xavier Intes, Vikas PandeyAbstract
Quantization is widely used to reduce the computational and memory demands of neural-network inference. In recurrent networks, however, the quantized state is stored and returned at the next time step, so the rule used to store that state can alter subsequent computations. Here, we introduce recurrent-state write-back to denote this rule and isolate its effect in a compact GRU encoder--decoder for fluorescence lifetime imaging, a molecular imaging modality used in quantitative biological imaging. A central task is estimating two lifetime parameters, the short-lived component {\tau}1 and the long-lived component {\tau}2, from high-noise time-resolved fluorescence signals. Holding the trained model fixed, replacing continuous state propagation with deterministic 4-bit state storage increases estimation errors for {\tau}1 and {\tau}2 by approximately 70x and 300x, respectively. Failure occurs when repeated small updates remain below the write threshold, leaving the stored state nearly fixed while the network continues to propose change. Error feedback, residual memory, and direction memory carry information from these suppressed updates across time and recover accuracy without retraining. Precision sweeps show that increasing state precision can worsen a fixed recurrent solution, while matched training shows that compatibility with the state interface can be learned. To test whether this behavior extends beyond the GRU, we repeat the post-training intervention in an independently trained LSTM, where coarse write-back reproduces the failure, error feedback restores accuracy, and state-specific interventions reveal greater sensitivity of the cell state than the hidden state. Our results establish recurrent-state write-back as a key determinant of low-precision recurrent dynamics and identify the state-storage interface as a central design consideration for quantized recurrent inference.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04490
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The Anatomy of an ASR Hallucination
2026-09-03 19:11:05Hamees Sayed, Apoorv Singh, Kumar Aman, Akshat MandloiAbstract
ASR systems sometimes produce fluent text that is unrelated to the speech they receive. We view these hallucinations as one possible consequence of a broader grounding failure, in which the transcript is no longer adequately guided by the audio. To understand where this failure becomes possible, we study two independently trained Conformer-Large recognizers - one CTC and one RNN-T - under environmental degradation and speaker-background shift. In both models, the final encoder stage emerges as a critical boundary: bypassing the final block causes divergence on nearly every utterance, whereas bypassing middle blocks has little effect. At this same stage, the representations become more compact, text becomes readable by the trained decoder, and grapheme information becomes explicit. Importantly, the intervention produces garbled or repetitive output rather than fluent fabrication. Our result therefore identifies a mechanistic precondition for hallucination - the failure to produce adequately grounded output - not the complete origin of naturally occurring hallucinations. Together, the results reveal a consistent terminal-stage dependency for grounded recognition across two decoder families and multiple distribution shifts.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04404
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A Mathematical Theory of Reusable Neural Bases for Network Compression
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As large AI models become increasingly prevalent across a wide range of applications, memory cost has become a critical bottleneck in both training and inference. To mitigate this issue, we introduce the Linear Reusable Neural Bases Architecture (LRNBA), a novel framework aimed at improving parameter efficiency and reducing memory cost. Inspired by recurrent neural network (RNN) designs, the core idea of our approach is to represent each network block as a linear combination of a shared set of neural bases, thereby enjoying highly network compression rate while maintaining stable training. The proposed architecture allows for the construction of significantly wider and deeper networks under the same parameter budget. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model achieves comparable or even faster convergence and lower loss than classical architectures, while maintaining stable training dynamics.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01550
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Augmenting Interviewer Judgments of Patient Experience with Automatic Language Analysis
2026-08-31 15:56:28Aowen Shi, Michal Balazia, Danilo Postin, Ren\'e Hurlemann, Jan Alexandersson, Fran\c{c}ois Br\'emond, Philipp M\"ullerAbstract
Understanding how psychiatric patients subjectively experienced a clinical conversation is important for feedback and alliance-related process monitoring. While interviewers form post-session judgments about patient experience, these judgments do not always match patients' self-reports. Automatic approaches for predicting perceived interaction quality from conversation have been proposed, but it remains unclear whether such approaches can complement human judgment rather than simply replicate it. To address this gap, we evaluate a clinician-support framework in which post-session interviewer ratings are combined with automatic language-based predictions to estimate patient-reported interaction quality in free clinical interviews. We assess this integration across multiple standard model types, including Ridge, SVR, MLP, GRU, and BiLSTM, all trained on sentence embeddings extracted from dyadic transcripts of 107 free conversations between psychiatric patients and interviewers. Our results show that combining interviewer judgments with model predictions through simple averaging yields the strongest overall performance. The interviewer-only baseline reached a Pearson correlation of 0.365. Among fully automatic models, Ridge achieved the strongest Pearson correlation (r = 0.286), while BiLSTM achieved r = 0.270. The strongest result was obtained by BiLSTM interviewer integration (r = 0.403). Our findings suggest that automatic language analysis and interviewer judgment capture complementary aspects of patient experience and that their combination provides a more accurate approximation of the patient's own report than either source alone.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.31007
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A Hybrid PEM-GP Framework for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification of Quadcopters
2026-08-31 08:26:03Abdallah Ghoul, Ismail Khalil Bousserhane, Kadri BoufeldjaAbstract
Accurate dynamic models play a central role in achieving reliable control of quadcopters. Classical system identification methods remain widely used, mainly because of their interpretability. However, they often fail to capture important nonlinear effects, especially in small-scale aerial platforms where such effects become more pronounced. Data-driven approaches offer a different perspective. They can represent complex nonlinear dynamics more effectively, but this comes at the cost of reduced interpretability and the absence of well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a framework that combines physics-based modeling with data-driven learning, while explicitly accounting for uncertainty. A physics-based model is first identified using the Prediction Error Method (PEM), which captures the main structure of the system. The remaining dynamics are then modeled using a Gaussian Process (GP), allowing the residual behavior to be learned directly from data. This separation makes it possible to distinguish between known physical effects and unmodeled dynamics. The proposed framework is validated on a Duckiedrone-like experimental setup. The results show that the PEM-GP model achieves prediction accuracy comparable to that of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, while additionally providing calibrated uncertainty estimates. This combination improves model reliability and supports uncertainty-aware decision-making.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30433
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An Open-Source, Event-Driven Pipeline for Cryptocurrency Market Data: Ingestion, Forecasting, and On-Chain Fraud Detection
2026-08-30 18:59:08Basil Sajid Shaikh, Melrick Mascarenhas, Nuzhat Faiz ShaikhAbstract
Cryptocurrency markets generate high-frequency, multi-source data that is expensive to work with unless a team already has commercial-grade streaming and warehousing infrastructure in place. This paper describes a fully open-source pipeline that reproduces the behavior of a cloud-native, event-driven system -- file arrival triggering a message, a message triggering compute -- entirely on commodity hardware, using Apache Kafka and a filesystem-watching poller in place of managed cloud triggers. The pipeline partitions historical Gemini exchange data into hourly and minutely files, ingests them asynchronously through two independently grouped Kafka consumers (one for audit logging, one for Spark-triggered ETL), and lands cleaned output in a PostgreSQL warehouse with historical and aggregated schemas plus asset-specific data marts. We use the resulting Bitcoin data mart to compare a seasonal ARIMA model against a single-layer LSTM network for price forecasting, and separately apply Random Forest and Gradient Boosting classifiers, with additional engineered features, to the public Ethereum fraud detection benchmark introduced by Farrugia et al. We report the architecture, the modeling methodology, and the resulting metrics, and we are explicit about the limitations of comparing forecasts issued at different horizons and of evaluating fraud detection on a static, already-labeled dataset.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29973
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Detect Before You Attribute: Cascade Failure Attribution for Multi-Agent Systems
2026-08-30 08:17:42Jiayi Zhang, Zexin Wang, Degang Sun, Changhua Pei, Fei Sun, Gaogang Xie, Jingjing LiAbstract
Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown strong potential in solving complex tasks through multi-step reasoning, yet they remain vulnerable to execution failures. Accurate failure attribution is therefore critical for improving agent reliability. Existing topology- and spectrum-based methods exploit trajectory structures but often overlook fine-grained semantics, while LLM-based attribution methods capture semantic cues but suffer from long-context degradation over lengthy trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose DUOTRACE, a plug-and-play detection filter for LLM-based failure attribution. DUOTRACE follows a detect-before-attribute paradigm: it first detects anomalous executions and then supplies focused trajectory evidence to downstream LLM-based attribution methods. For effective VAE-based anomaly detection on agent trajectories, DUOTRACE integrates dual-view semantic-structural node representations, a Tree-LSTM-based trajectory encoder, and prefix-chain- and LLM-based data augmentation to handle heterogeneous nodes, hierarchical execution structures, and limited failure data. Experiments with six LLM-based attribution baselines show that DUOTRACE improves agent-level and step-level attribution accuracy by 8.7% and 7.0%, respectively.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29646
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Frequency Selective Neural Networks as a Foundation Architecture for Time Series Learning
2026-08-29 02:51:29Hui Huang, Ye Sun, Shiyan HuAbstract
Time-series data across physical and biological domains are fundamentally driven by complex, non-stationary oscillatory modes. While deep learning models, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks, and Transformers, have dominated sequential analysis, they remain fundamentally "spectral-blind". By mapping continuous physical waves into unconstrained spatial or discrete token spaces, these architectures suffer from severe spectral entanglement, acting as opaque black boxes that decouple predictive accuracy from physical reality. In this paper, we introduce the Frequency Selective Neural Network (FSNN), pioneering a foundation architecture guaranteeing physical interpretability without sacrificing expressive power of deep learning. FSNN addresses spectral entanglement by explicitly embedding the rigorous mathematics of advanced signal processing into its neural topology. Through a fully differentiable Wiener-like filter bank optimized via complex-domain backpropagation, FSNN autonomously discovers and isolates the precise physical modes of a given task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that FSNN establishes state-of-the-art predictive performance, achieving $77.0\%$ average accuracy on the standard 10 multivariate UEA datasets and leading across all major metrics on the highly imbalanced PTB-XL clinical ECG benchmark. Crucially, in contrast to yielding abstract feature maps, FSNN converges directly on physically meaningful frequency bands, such as isolating the cardiac QRS complex, providing a highly scalable, interpretable paradigm for robust pattern recognition in complex temporal domains. Our code is available at: this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29012
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